VALAI

Binance says 90% of the hacked loss is now covered, up from 80% a day ago. What the chain shows at 15:05 UTC: • The SAFU wallet sent 7,500 $BTC (~$580M) to a new address at 14:45-14:51 UTC, half its balance • $2.49B frozen: $1.66B $USDT + $823M $USDC • $1.21B still free in hacker wallets, mostly 506K $ETH • On Tron, 638.2M $TRX (~$201M) left one hacker hop in five transfers inside 5 minutes. It now holds 37 $TRX 10 tokens are fully backed 1:1, incl. $BTC, $ETH, $BNB, $SOL, $XRP and $ZEC. The last 10% is less liquid alts, still being bought through market and OTC channels. Our read: that buying is the bid to watch until withdrawals reopen Sunday Nov 1. Full zk reserve proof due Tue Nov 3. nitter.gq/binance/status/2116538…

The FBI has named North Korea for the Binance hack: more than $6B taken, the largest crypto theft on record. North Korea's last record hit was Bybit in Feb 2025, $1.5B. The ETH was converted to $BTC and spread across thousands of addresses on many chains. What the chain shows at 22:01 UTC (Ethereum + Tron): • $2.49B frozen: $1.66B $USDT + $823M $USDC • $1.23B still outside any freeze, incl. 505,618 $ETH across 35 wallets we track • The stolen alts were sold on DEXs into $ETH Our read: the frozen half is done. The 505,618 $ETH is the part no issuer can touch, and the tell is when it starts moving into swaps and bridges. Binance says withdrawals are on track to reopen Sunday.

Binance hack wallets, 20:24 UTC update. Moved since our last update: $66.3M. 158,200,902 $TRX from TKkH2v…vw6K to tracked Tron wallet TRBdWq…PRki. 7,715,718 $TRX from TRBdWq…PRki to Tron wallet TNhpfK…zH6F. 7,363,237 $TRX from TRBdWq…PRki to Tron wallet TNhpfK…zH6F. Still frozen: $1.66B $USDT and $823.0M $USDC. Outside any freeze: $1.24B, incl. 505,618 $ETH, across 35 wallets we track. We keep following the money. nitter.gq/ValeriusLabs/status/21…

$20.5M in perp open interest against a $92M spot cap on $CASHCAT. Longs pay +0.0037%/hr on Hyperliquid while 6h flow runs 48% buys, so the perp book is leaning harder than spot. The cost of that position is real and hourly. A funding flip to negative would unwind the long carry fast. Pure memecoin, coinflip odds, small position.

29x multiple on buyback run-rate. 30d base is 24x. Shorts paying on 60% of venues. Funding -0.012% on $RAY. $29M perp OI against $15M spot volume. 7d fees $3.11M. 12% accrues $0.30M in buybacks held off market. Launchpad step is one week old. Fee floor has to hold for the higher multiple to be real.

Sellers lead 1,310 to 1,254 buys on $MICRODUCK, yet price is up 26.5% in 24h 44% of liquidity sits in $NVDA pools, a tokenized stock token quoting the duck $292K tape. Top 10 wallets added 0.3pt to 17.7% while holders shrank by 4 The pair holds until $NVDA pools stop quoting it

Fees printed $94K in 24h while the operator wallet signed $46K of $STONK buybacks beneath a flat tape. The math: a $100M cap against the annualized fee pace is 2.9x, so buyers are paying under three turns of gross fees for a machine that bids its own float every session. Fee pace is the whole case. Pump.fun outruns it by an order of magnitude and one dead week snaps the loop.

Is the $PONS bottom in? Our own screen says not yet: revenue runs $47.3K a day on the 7-day average, down 23.9% week on week, and the token trades at 8.8x annualized revenue. The flip signal is that decline slowing under 15% a week, with 32.9% of supply already burned. The August floor traded at 0.4x to 1.0x revenue. The upside is scale: Pons did $2.06M in one day on Sep 5, more than $PUMP's $1.63M daily run-rate, and $PUMP's $1.90B to $3.41B valuation sits 13x to 22x above $PONS at $152M. Desk is long $PONS, disclosed.

Binance says the SAFU transfer is complete. That is the 7,499 $BTC move the chain flagged. What the chain shows at 16:16 UTC: • $2.49B frozen: $1.66B $USDT and $823.0M $USDC • $1.29B still outside any freeze, including 505,618 $ETH across 35 hacker wallets we track • SAFU BTC wallet sent out 7,500 $BTC ($582.0M) in 6 minutes, 14:45-14:51 UTC, to an unlabelled address • Largest fresh hacker move: 4,713,334 $TRX ($1.5M) at 15:50 UTC Our read: the freeze split is now the number that matters. $2.49B locked against $1.29B still moving, and the 506K $ETH is the part no issuer can touch. Watch whether that unlabelled SAFU destination turns out to be a recovery wallet or a bridge out. Withdrawals reopen Sunday Nov 1. Full reserve proof due Tue Nov 3. nitter.gq/binance/status/2116564…

127M $STRK unlock in 14 days. The chain collects $8K a day in fees, all to the sequencer. $447M FDV against that fee line means it's priced on the quantum-readiness story, not usage. The proof layer is genuinely post-quantum by design, but nothing flows to holders. A fee line to $STRK or the L1 vote passing is the only thing that turns narrative into value.

Binance hack wallets, 15:50 UTC update. Moved since our last update: $55.0M. 120,000,000 $TRX from TJajtP…LHKT to new Tron wallet TRBdWq…PRki. 32,825,145 ethereum:0x7cf9a80db3b29ee8efe3710aadb7b95270572d47 from 0x5227…2f8c to new wallet 0xc586…e935. 9,258,136 $LSK from 0x5227…2f8c to new wallet 0x2274…64b0. Still frozen: $1.66B $USDT and $823.0M $USDC. Outside any freeze: $1.29B, incl. 505,618 $ETH, across 35 wallets we track. We keep following the money. nitter.gq/ValeriusLabs/status/21…

807M of 2.01B $AERO circulating. The other 60% emits to LPs over time. A spot holder eats that dilution without touching the fees. Fees are real: $294K/24h to veAERO voters, ~$91M annualized vs a $506M mcap. But that 5.5x multiple belongs to lockers only. The position works only if Base volume keeps the fee line above what emissions take from the float.

Is the $PUMP buyback big enough to hold a floor? Our own screen says not yet: buybacks run 13.6% of market cap a year, but fees fell 16.3% week on week and price sits only 5.7% above the $0.0039 closing low. What flips it is the fee decline slowing under 15% a week. $5.0M of $PUMP was bought back this week, half of $11.8M in fees. We first flagged this mispricing at $0.0014 on July 17. The upside is scale: Hyperliquid buys back $826M a year, 2.4x pump.fun's $343M, yet $HYPE's $29.4B market cap is 15.3x $PUMP's $1.92B. Desk is long from $0.0040, disclosed.

39 days of payouts and the last 27 hours printed zero solana:Xsc9qvGR1efVDFGLrVsmkzv3qi45LTBjeUKSPmx9qEh to holders. 17,510 solana:Xsc9qvGR1efVDFGLrVsmkzv3qi45LTBjeUKSPmx9qEh total since launch, but $SI is still down 84% from peak while volume runs $670K a day. Payouts only exist when transfers flow. The test is whether the next 27 hours print anything at all. Holders, what revives the fee stream from here?

Travala reserve: 598,459 $AVA, never to be sold. Buybacks ~$94K/yr, ~5% of the $22.3M mcap. Next multiplier tier needs givebacks up 113%. $BNB hack selling pressure makes that harder. Desk long from $0.22, disclosed.

Stablecoins financing GPUs through USD.AI: $274M TVL, $306M deployed to data-centre operators. $86M cap vs $6.6M the DAO keeps. Buyers paying 13x for a business $CHIP gets none of yet. The rerate comes when fees route to the token, not before.

Flow vs Price $HYPE $87.78, -5.88% in 24h Funding +0.0041%/h on Hyperliquid, positive through the entire drop. Buybacks $67.59M in 30d still absorbing. Spot holders took profit after a 14.6% week, perps never blinked. Leverage is carrying this dip, not spot. Loses $84.50 and the flush extends. $HYPE

7d average revenue on $PONS down 24% week over week. Yesterday still printed $37K on Robinhood Chain's dominant launchpad, while Uniswap's pools.trade contests the same chain. If the 7d average holds above $40K, 8.8x multiple math still favors the burn over the fade.

$64M burned a year at current revenue pace, against a $0.68B float. That retires 9.4% of circulating $LIT annually if fees hold flat. The burn is real, but supply isn't static. Only ~25% circulates, and ~75% unlocks from late December 2026. The burn has a feed. The unlock schedule gives it an expiration date.

September DAO share of Pyth product revenue: $554K, up 12.7x from August. Under the 100% rule that buys ~8.5M solana:HZ1JovNiVvGrGNiiYvEozEVgZ58xaU3RKwX8eACQBCt3/month on the open market, held in the solana:HZ1JovNiVvGrGNiiYvEozEVgZ58xaU3RKwX8eACQBCt3 Reserve, against a 7.87B float. Needs revenue to keep compounding, and the May 2027 cliff of 2.125B solana:HZ1JovNiVvGrGNiiYvEozEVgZ58xaU3RKwX8eACQBCt3 to get absorbed. Desk is long from $0.0848, disclosed.