definitely worth a follow, lots of great minds in one place
i've actually put together a similar list myself before
hopefully I'll be joining this list soon too 🤞👀
Introducing The Entropy Circle.
A list of the traders and creators wearing the Entropy badge. Our closest supporters, building Entropy with us.
Follow it to see their research, trades and breakdowns in one place.
nitter.gq/i/lists/21172117313531…
Entropy just crossed ~$100M in open interest (HL/DefiLlama, Nov 1).
Extended, for example, is sitting at ~$95M. @entropyIO is already in the same league with no token, no visible points program, no promised emissions.
That’s demand filling the book, not farmers grinding a leaderboard.
If you want to see what real pre-IPO demand looks like, Entropy is probably the better place to look.
~$113M routed through @Outcomexyz HIP-4 interface in the last 30 days.
Over $200M since markets went live in May.
They built on Hyperliquid for one practical reason: the event contract and its hedge sit on the same book.
HIP-4 outcomes are fully collateralized. No leverage, no liquidations. Same account as your perps.
Market makers quote tighter because hedging the BTC exposure is instant and cheap on the same venue. No capital split across platforms.
That's why Outcome is the largest HIP-4 builder by a wide margin and posts a 500k HYPE bond as deployer.
I've been quoting these markets for 2 months. Still here.
Wall Street went home at 4pm. $INTC kept falling on HL −25%, $326M traded overnight.
Intel reported after yesterday’s close: Q3 beat, weak Q4 guide. Last close: $92.07.
The INTC perp on Hyperliquid:
> first hour after the print: $92 → $76.5, $85M traded
> by midnight: $71
> now: $69.3, −25%, $97M OI
It dragged the chip trade with it.
On @entropyIO SanDisk $SNDK fell 11.7% on $28.9M traded, its busiest book of the day.
While your broker was closed, onchain already repriced it
He got 46,428 HYPE in the genesis airdrop, $4.2M at today’s price. Now he's buying $1 for 98¢ on @Outcomexyz
robertocarlos, 0xe933…5bb3
$209.6k lifetime profit on HL perps, $115.9M traded
moved $50k to Outcome on Sep 23–28
+$5.6k realized in 30 days (+11%)
How: one YES + one NO on the same outcome merge back into $1. Get both legs for less, keep the difference.
He lifts NO on favourites from market makers' asks, parks bids on the underdog's YES at 4–12¢, and waits hours, sometimes days. When both legs fill under $1, he merges them. 60k+ pairs so far, ~1¢ each.
Merges are only 20% of his profit, though. 69% came from selling underdog legs higher: PSG YES bought at 13¢, sold at 17.5¢, +$2.5k.
Market makers quote YES and NO separately. He's the one adding them up.
A prediction market trader made $16,056 in 30 days with a $2.4k bankroll and an 86% win rate.
One wallet on @Outcomexyz, and the trick is buying answers that are already decided.
0x9522…1f32 (ferrari4u2)
Setup ↓
Every 15 minutes Hyperliquid lists "BTC/ETH/HYPE above X at time T". In the last 1–3 minutes the price is often so far from the strike that the answer is basically known.
Trade ↓
He bids 0.55–0.80 on the side that's already winning, 600–1,400 shares, and keeps refreshing the bid. Someone sells him the winner, and it settles at $1.
Receipts from Oct 25:
HYPE "No", 1,375 at 65¢ → +$481
ETH "No", 1,200 at 70¢ → +$360
BTC "Yes", 1,250 at 80¢ → +$250
On top of that, $4.4k in @monarch_fast LP rewards.
Does it still work?
Yes, but thinner.
+$2.0k on Oct 24
+$1.3k on Oct 25
+$127 on Oct 26
It's a window, and it's closing.
SBF bought ~8% of @AnthropicAI for $500M.
At today's ~$1.88T valuation, that's $150B on paper. Even after dilution, $100B+
So I checked: could any perp market absorb that if he wanted out today?
13 venues list Anthropic perps.
Combined:
OI: $165M
24h volume: $48M
Bids within 5% of price: ~$8.5M
$100B is ~600x all the open interest.
At current volume, it's ~5.7 years of every trade on every venue.
The biggest pool is @entropyIO with $57M OI, about a third of the market.
The market can price his stake in a second. Paying him out would take until 2032.
If I had to carry Anthropic into its IPO, I'd pick the contract with the fewest moving parts. Across >13 venues, that's @entropyIO
Entropy prices the company itself: 1,887 = $1.887T.
Trade[xyz] prices one share at $115, which only means something once you know the share count (~16.4B at today's valuation).
Before the IPO, Entropy blends its order book with outside private-market data, never below 5% weight. Trade[xyz] uses an internal average of its own book.
At listing, Entropy moves to a 1-hour average of its own price from 3 days out, then to the public price. Same unit, no rebase. Trade[xyz] switches to the share price at the first session, and its own docs warn the mark can jump and liquidate positions near maintenance.
Everyone else quotes a "share" on an assumed 1B shares (OKX: 10B) and may rebase once the real count is out. MEXC, BingX and HTX haven't published what happens to their Anthropic contract at IPO.
Entropy also has the most size: $52.7M OI vs $5.9M on trade[xyz]. The trade-off is funding. Longs on Entropy have paid 9–13% a year lately, and shorts collect it.
Personally, I'd hold the company, not the share.
If I had to carry Anthropic into its IPO, I'd pick the contract with the fewest moving parts. Across >13 venues, that's @entropyIO
Entropy prices the company itself: 1,887 = $1.887T.
Trade[xyz] prices one share at $115, which only means something once you know the share count (~16.4B at today's valuation).
Before the IPO, Entropy blends its order book with outside private-market data, never below 5% weight. Trade[xyz] uses an internal average of its own book.
At listing, Entropy moves to a 1-hour average of its own price from 3 days out, then to the public price. Same unit, no rebase. Trade[xyz] switches to the share price at the first session, and its own docs warn the mark can jump and liquidate positions near maintenance.
Everyone else quotes a "share" on an assumed 1B shares (OKX: 10B) and may rebase once the real count is out. MEXC, BingX and HTX haven't published what happens to their Anthropic contract at IPO.
Entropy also has the most size: $52.7M OI vs $5.9M on trade[xyz]. The trade-off is funding. Longs on Entropy have paid 9–13% a year lately, and shorts collect it.
Personally, I'd hold the company, not the share.
A prediction market trader made $16,056 in 30 days with a $2.4k bankroll and an 86% win rate.
One wallet on @Outcomexyz, and the trick is buying answers that are already decided.
0x9522…1f32 (ferrari4u2)
Setup ↓
Every 15 minutes Hyperliquid lists "BTC/ETH/HYPE above X at time T". In the last 1–3 minutes the price is often so far from the strike that the answer is basically known.
Trade ↓
He bids 0.55–0.80 on the side that's already winning, 600–1,400 shares, and keeps refreshing the bid. Someone sells him the winner, and it settles at $1.
Receipts from Oct 25:
HYPE "No", 1,375 at 65¢ → +$481
ETH "No", 1,200 at 70¢ → +$360
BTC "Yes", 1,250 at 80¢ → +$250
On top of that, $4.4k in @monarch_fast LP rewards.
Does it still work?
Yes, but thinner.
+$2.0k on Oct 24
+$1.3k on Oct 25
+$127 on Oct 26
It's a window, and it's closing.
Entropy's @AnthropicAI book after the S-1:
The filing hour traded ~$7M. A normal hour does ~$0.3M.
Nobody ran for the exit. OI went up, from $49.0M before the filing to $50.0M now.
One account added $2.55M of short and is now the biggest short I can find, at $5.3M.
The size here is leaning against the IPO pop.
Shorting Anthropic (io:ANTH) on @entropyIO earned 8.9% a year in funding over the last 14 days. Longs on Lighter paid ~0.2%.
I ran the hedge on that data: short Entropy, long Lighter. Net carry is ~8.7% a year.
The 2% price gap isn't the trade. Lighter sat higher than Entropy every hour for 14 days.
The catch is depth. Lighter holds only ~$15k within 0.5% of price, and past $10k the costs eat weeks of carry. If the gap closes at IPO, you give back ~12 weeks of it.
Think of it as a ~9% savings account with a $10k limit and an IPO exit fee.
My @variational_io CPP dropped another dollar. Same spend, less volume.
Epoch Oct 16–23 (W45)
Volume: $6.03M
Points: 74.8
Final CPP: $10.60
Five epochs: $7.80 → $10.24 → $13.10 → $11.60 → $10.60.
Volume fell 27%, but points rose 11%. Volume per point went from $123k to $81k.
The reason is small OI legs. My cost rate rose from 0.941 to 1.315 bps, so each dollar of volume cost more, but each dollar also bought more points.
US500S / US100S still pays the same price per point at any size, so that stays my main book.
Swaps are under two months old and already more than 15% of lifetime volume. $ASTS, $IONQ and $CVNA at 50x and the Grayscale Zcash ETF just went live. More than 25 companies report earnings this week, and you can trade them around the clock.
My @variational_io CPP dropped $1.50.
I owe that to one whale who slowed down.
Epoch Oct 9–16 (W44)
Volume: $8.32M
Average OI: $204k
Points: 67.5
Final CPP: $11.60
Four epochs: $7.80 → $10.24 → $13.10 → $11.60.
My cost rate didn't move: 0.941 bps vs 0.944 last week.
Everyone else did.
Weekly network volume fell from $20.8B to $18.5B.
~$1.5B of that $2.3B drop is a single whale going from >$2B to ~$500M.
I cut size 21%, the network cut 11%.
My pool share went from 0.0506% to 0.0450%. Cheaper per point, but fewer points.
One update on last week's take: new accounts are back. +750, from 31,632 to 32,382.
If that whale comes back, volume per point goes to ~$133k and we're all paying ~$12.5 again.
Meanwhile the venue keeps shipping. $US30, $US400, $NOW, $APP, Adobe and heating oil went live. More than half of active accounts traded a swap this month, and a $2M $US100 short filled under 1 bip.
What CPP did you land this week?
Last time @Cbb0fe got loud, he was bidding $100 for $VAR points.
OTC was $25. I was long those points. I wasn’t mad.
Now he’s pointing at HIP-4 prediction markets. There is one venue that basically is HIP-4: @Outcomexyz
89% of HIP-4 volume over 30 days. 98% of the open interest.
$78M traded in that window. About $2.6M a day.
3,918 unique wallets in 30 days.
I’ve pushed $650k of volume through it and I quote there every day.
"Barely any volume" is why the rewards are still worth chasing.
$NBIS 这单的数字：@entropyIO 做空 +$63.69，Variational 做多 −$4.90，资金费合计 +$58.79
另外再加上 1.1 个 VAR 积分（约 $30），仅这一单就有，因为这单赶上了快照
只要别忘了设资金费翻转提醒、及时管理仓位，这套打法可以很好地扩量
还在烧手续费刷量？有人拿着仓位吃资金费
$NBIS 资金费率一天涨了 6 倍：年化从 6% 到 36%
Entropy 开空 NBIS，吃资金费，同时积累交易记录
Variational 开多同一个标的：对冲价格风险，同时攒积分
价格涨跌两边抵消，剩下两份收益
第一份是资金费，每小时到账
第二份是 Variational 积分，TGE 预计很快就到
不用天天刷量，不用盯盘。拿住仓位，慢慢管理，看着钱每小时到账就行
关键是分批进场，别用自己的仓位砸穿盘口
这是我自己的做法，聪明地撸
注册 @entropyIO 时填我的邀请码 0xvexter：除了资金费，还能拿到最好的返佣条件
biggest crypto VC just took "crypto" out of its name
$4.5B fund in 2022
$2.2B in 2026
now it’s a16z frontier
half the money, none of the label
but same bets on stablecoins and tokenization
who’s next to rebrand?
Anthropic raised at $965B in May.
Perps price it at $1.97T today.
That's 2x in five months, before a single public share trades. Lighter is already above $2T.
Wall Street talks $2T. Some investors talk $1.5T.
At $1.5T, perp longs are down 24% on day one.
And these perps don't settle at the IPO price. They keep trading, and only the price source changes.
Entropy: 3 days before listing, the price is just its own chart, with no outside anchor.
Variational: until IPO day, it's the average of other perps. Perps pricing perps.
Meanwhile CT is fighting over the $80B loss. ~$72B of it is paper. The $518B compute bill isn't.
The S-1 could drop Friday.
Above or below $1.97T on day one?
还在烧手续费刷量？有人拿着仓位吃资金费
$NBIS 资金费率一天涨了 6 倍：年化从 6% 到 36%
Entropy 开空 NBIS，吃资金费，同时积累交易记录
Variational 开多同一个标的：对冲价格风险，同时攒积分
价格涨跌两边抵消，剩下两份收益
第一份是资金费，每小时到账
第二份是 Variational 积分，TGE 预计很快就到
不用天天刷量，不用盯盘。拿住仓位，慢慢管理，看着钱每小时到账就行
关键是分批进场，别用自己的仓位砸穿盘口
这是我自己的做法，聪明地撸
注册 @entropyIO 时填我的邀请码 0xvexter：除了资金费，还能拿到最好的返佣条件
RWA perps just flipped every tokenized stock onchain.
$4.0B in RWA perp OI on one chain. $5.7B across all DEXs. $4.84B in tokenized stocks onchain, total.
Hyperliquid set the bar. When oil moved on a weekend in March and TradFi was closed, it was one of the few places with real liquidity.
Citrini's report, the one everyone shared, expects the derivatives market to keep growing and to have room for more venues next to the leader.
Variational is building a broker. It routes existing TradFi liquidity onchain instead of bootstrapping its own.
@entropyIO builds on HIP-3 itself and lists pre-IPO names nobody else has.
One deep venue proves the demand. More venues push spreads tighter and bring more flow for all of them.
I’m farming the two above. One has clear math on the upside, the other is still early.
RWA perps just flipped every tokenized stock onchain.
$4.0B in RWA perp OI on one chain. $5.7B across all DEXs. $4.84B in tokenized stocks onchain, total.
Hyperliquid set the bar. When oil moved on a weekend in March and TradFi was closed, it was one of the few places with real liquidity.
Citrini's report, the one everyone shared, expects the derivatives market to keep growing and to have room for more venues next to the leader.
Variational is building a broker. It routes existing TradFi liquidity onchain instead of bootstrapping its own.
@entropyIO builds on HIP-3 itself and lists pre-IPO names nobody else has.
One deep venue proves the demand. More venues push spreads tighter and bring more flow for all of them.
I’m farming the two above. One has clear math on the upside, the other is still early.
Only one tokenless perp DEX is growing right now.
+37% open interest in 7 days. Everyone else: between +0.7% and −8.7%.
30 days: +53%. Next best did +23%.
First month after launch: ~8x.
No points, no token. And half the book sits in a market nobody else lists.
Name it before the timeline does.
It’s @entropyIO
First month: $6.5M → $54M OI.
The market nobody else lists is Anthropic. OpenAI is there too.
Fees still run at 0.1x while it’s in growth mode.
Still small at $86M OI.
Small and growing fastest is exactly what early looks like.
This is the stage where I’m adding exposure.
Looking for better terms? Code’s in my pinned post.
Just got bumped to Tier-4 on @entropyIO.
Someone on that team is always watching who actually shows up.
Frontier, people bringing in an audience, people posting real numbers.
From what I've seen, it gets noticed.
If your reach is already big or a lot of people joined through your link, the badge is probably just a matter of time.
Meanwhile the book keeps growing up:
~$70M OI even on a quiet tape
$ANTH perp marking ~$1.96T
$PRL cap doubled to $10M, SNDK up to $15M
CN farmers say the first rebate epoch already paid out
Caps going up usually means the next platform update isn't far off. I'll be covering it.
Joining?
Code [ 0xvexter ] gets you my T4 terms.
Link and details on the image.
CT says @variational_io TGEs on Christmas.
I checked the PM market behind it.
One wallet holds ~78% of the YES side.
The entire bid is $1.2K. You could move this date”with a lunch budget.
And 90% isn’t on Christmas. It’s on "sometime in the next 75 days".
The team hasn’t named a date. Docs still say Q4.
Nobody knows the date. Some people are just louder about it.