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WATCH LIVE: “The Nerd Show” has a real-time look inside CBS News’ Data Desk and the votes, exit polls, trends and numbers shaping the 2026 midterm races nitter.gq/i/broadcasts/2XyJAAQmW…
VoteHub retweeted
Abbott's historical gains in heavily Hispanic precincts are reversing sharply tonight.
VoteHub retweeted
All eyes on Mississipi.
What gains could look like for Colom if our turnout estimates underestimated Black voters like in Louisiana, which might be the case.
VoteHub retweeted
Black Louisiana parishes turned out at 79.6% of their 2024 presidential vote tonight, vs. about 71% everywhere else.
In Hinds County, Mississippi. If Black turnout ran ahead of estimates like in Louisiana, ~9,000 votes could still be out, worth ~+6,000 net for Colom.
VoteHub retweeted
Mississippi does not allow automatic or candidate-requested recounts, regardless of how close an election is, according to Ballotpedia.
That means even an extremely narrow margin in the U.S. Senate race would not trigger a recount. A recount would require judicial intervention.
VoteHub retweeted
The bottom fell out for the GOP across the Deep South. Trump backlash and post-Callais anger drove Black turnout to presidential levels as white turnout fell.
Hyde-Smith’s history of underperformance leaves her trailing by 28 votes, with blue provisionals still outstanding.
Alaska Governor
🔵 Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins – 35,837 (55.4%)
🔴 Bernadette Wilson – 17,840 (27.6%)
🔴 Dave Bronson – 6,968 (10.8%)
🔴 Treg Taylor – 4,019 (6.2%)
Alaska U.S. Senate
🔵 Mary Peltola – 35,324 (54.1%)
🔴 Dan Sullivan – 27,940 (42.8%)
🔴 Dan Sullivan – 1,005 (1.5%)
Governor D+10.8 | Peltola D+9.8
Results per AP
VoteHub retweeted
This is a shocker developing. In the past provisionals reported after Election Night have shifted left which is good for Colom. So tight. CHS's best chance is there are votes left in a red county we don't know about right now.
VoteHub retweeted
Mississippi (2024 total → 2024 provisional)
🔵 Hinds: D+46.1 → D+48.2
🔴 Lauderdale: R+21.2 → D+7.0
🔴 Pearl River: R+66.7 → R+59.2
🔴 Rankin: R+47.1 → R+45.6
History here is on Colom's side. These are the only four counties I have the breakdown on. All 1–2% of the vote.
VoteHub retweeted
Mississippi last elected a Democratic Senator in 1982. If Colom holds onto his narrow lead, his will be the first Democratic Senate victory in the state in 44 years.
VoteHub retweeted
Following this logic, SUBSTANTIAL vote drops could be expected from Hinds, Harrison, DeSoto, Rankin, and Madison counties.
2/5 of these are over 50% Black. 5/5 are over 25% Black. Colom has turnout on his side as he leads by less than a point.
VoteHub retweeted
Holmes, Marshall, Jefferson, Greene, and Kemper county are the counties OVERPPERFOMRING our Turnout estimates in Louisiana's the most.
They are all plurality Black. Colom has expanded the electorate and now leads by 0.1 because of it.
VoteHub retweeted
A key note on MS. The state shifted toward Democrats by over half a point after Election Night in 2024. MS will not be called tonight. Unless there are any unexpected votes from counties not accounted for right now, this could be days of waiting.
