Sports card collector, numbers nerd, and wax ripper, in that order. I enjoy chopping it up about conspiracies and analyzing Topps odds sheets in my spare time.
Kansas City, MO
Joined April 2012
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2026 Panini Prizm Preferred Baseball Boxes- A Rudimentary Analysis
As we all know by now, transparency is not in Panini’s vocabulary. I would love nothing more than to see Panini release odds so that I could compare production numbers and print runs to Topps products.
I truly think it would be in their best interest and help them sell more product. People are more likely to buy products where they perceive value. And if we could see just how rare some of the Panini inserts are, it just might convince some folks to chase them. I, for one, would be happy to call out sneaky low print run plays, just as I do for Topps products.
Conversely, if we could put some numbers to the ridiculous print runs for things that are perceived as somewhat scarce, like recent Downtowns and Uptowns, the market might just do the opposite and fall on its face.
Sadly, at this point all I can do is rip what I can rip (or watch ripped), attempt to put together some rudimentary pack odds, and extrapolate some numbers based on those.
I’ve had countless requests to analyze Panini products. If there is a particular Panini product on which you really need some details- to make it work, I would ask for your help. If anyone cares to watch Panini case rips and record the results of all parallels pulled on a case-by-case basis, there are definitely some things I could do with those numbers. But it’s a depressingly tedious job. And I have way too many other things on my plate to even entertain it.
Moving on, I recently was excited to dive into my own full case rip of Panini Preferred Baseball boxes. Due to some ridiculous recent luck with Preferred World Cup Boxes, which have now spiked from $100/box to $350+, I felt compelled to try my luck with Preferred Baseball.
Here are some basic numbers I was able to put together. Keep in mind, one case is way to small a sample size to be able to guarantee precise results. Pull rates of particular parallels are bound to be short or long in such a small sample size.
Also, there are several formats of Prizm Baseball: Hobby, Mega, Blasters, Preferred, and possibly others. The case I ripped was the “Preferred format”, which has little to no overlap with parallels of other formats. This allows me to calculate VERY basic numbers on Preferred Boxes, but is not helpful in the least for calculating any other formats or total production. I would need results of all those formats as well.
Overall thoughts on the product:
For $100/box retail (I paid $110) it’s a fun rip, but there isn’t a ton of high end potential. Being unlicensed, singles values are very underwhelming. The best hits you can really hope for would be a big name of a case hit like Manga, but even then the top names like Griffey would only cover half a case. Most decent name Color Blasts and Mangas are worth a few to several hundred dollars, leaving you a lot of ground to make up with underwhelming parallels and Autos. My case hit was a Roman Anthony Color Blast that sells for ~$200.
There are a handful of big name autos on the checklists (Konnor Griffin, Jackson Chourio, Paul Skenes, Albert Pujols, Bobby Witt Jr., Nick Kurtz), but they’re heavily weighted toward unproven prospects and mid and low-value legends and vets. Even the names I mentioned don’t sell for much compared to licensed product and likely wouldn’t even cover the price of a box unless it were lower numbered.
2 Autos, 5 numbered, and 10 base circles per $100 box sounds good, until you realize none of them really sell for anything, so it’s extremely tough to recoup your spend. That said, you definitely won’t get obliterated with a 10%-15% value return as is very common with licensed Topps products. This is a mid-floor but low-ceiling type of product.
At the time of writing, boxes are currently available on WalMart.com for $100.
•Totals are estimates based on the median of my results, which I think should be accurate to within ~20%.
•Unnumbered Auto Print Runs can’t be determined due to overlap with other formats.
•Super scarce hits like Case Hit inserts and Genesis can’t be calculated base on results of just one case. It would take a much larger sample size.
•I feel most comfortable basing total production on the largest numbered parallels, which are Orange /185, of which I received 50 in my case for an average of 2.5/box. Even if this average swings one way or the other in a larger sample size, it shouldn’t be more than 3 or less than 2 per box. This is also consistent with the next highest numbered parallel, Blue /100. I don’t base any calculations on lower numbered parallels like Neon Greens /5 because a difference of 1 per case can wildly throw off numbers.
Total Preferred Boxes produced:
~22,200 (1,110 cases)
Due to the limited box production, it should be MUCH easier to pull Black 1/1s from Preferred Boxes as compared to other formats. There should be a total of 600 Black Circles 1/1s possible. Based on this, Black Circles 1/1s should average 1 per 1.85 cases. Unfortunately, I did not pull one from my case.
Print Runs of parallels pullable from Preferred boxes:
Numbered Parallels:
•Orange Circles /185
•Blue Circles /100
•Purple Circles /50
•Pink Circles /25
•Panini Logo /20
•Gold Circles /10
•Neon Green Circles /5
•Black Circles /1
Unnumbered Parallels:
•Base Circles- ~370 ea
Inserts:
•Fireworks Circles (20 card CL)- ~1,000 ea
•Global Reach Circles (25 Card CL)- ~1,065 ea
•Throwback Circles (30 card CL)- ~1,110 ea
•Prizmatic Circles (25 card CL)- ~1,245 ea
My Results:
•Genesis- 1 (Josuar Gonzalez)
•Color Blast- 1 (Roman Anthony)
•Black 1/1- 0
•Lime Green /5- 1 (Jack Wenninger)
•Gold /10- 3 (Robinson Cano, Bo Davidson, Esmerlyn Valdez)
•Panini Logo Prizms /20- 3 (Aidan Miller, Ryan Braun, Paul Konerko)
•Pink /25- 5 (Grady Emerson, Kristian Campbell, Nick Kurtz, Trevor Hoffman, Matt Shaw)
•Purple /50- 11 (Best: Chase Burns, Trey Yesavage)
•Blue /100- 26 (Best: James Wood, Travis Bazzana, Josuar Gonzalez, Kade Anderson, Wehiwa Aloy)
•Orange /185- 50 (Best: JoJo Parker, Wehiwa Aloy, Roch Cholowsky, Chase DeLauter, Aiva Arquette, Nolan Ryan, Kade Anderson
Autos:
Best- Paul Skenes Throwback Signatures Purple /25, Braden Montgomery Prizm Signatures Purple /25, Alejandro Osuna Gold Sensational Signatures /10
#thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2026PrizmBaseballPreferredBox
2026 Topps Holiday Baseball:
SP, SSP, and Variations Guide
Been seeing a lot of questions about Topps Holiday Baseball pop up. So I made a little guide that should help navigate you through some of the common questions.
It's photo-heavy, so I can't post the whole thing here. Here's a link to the post on my Substack.
slabsquatch.substack.com/p/2…
2026 Topps Holiday Football Deep Dive
Well, this is convenient.
I barely put a bow on Holiday Baseball before Topps dropped the odds for Holiday Football.
Two Holiday releases. Two days apart. Looks the same. Feels the same. You'd think the differences would be relatively minor.
And you'd be wrong.
As it turns out, these two products have taken wildly different approaches to what's inside the box. And some of those differences are pretty substantial.
Welcome to 2026 Topps Holiday NFL.
Part 1: The Rundown
Holiday NFL releases tomorrow, Friday October 23rd.
Mega Boxes @ $30 are the only format on the football side.
10 packs of 10 cards = 100 cards per box.
Part 2: Production Numbers
Total cards in the Product:
62,394,000
This represents a 45% decrease in production from the MLB version, which came in at 113,712,600 cards. This production decrease does Not mean you're going to have a hard time getting boxes if you want them. There are plenty.
Total boxes produced:
623,940 (31,197 cases)
This is actually 9% more Megas than were produced for baseball. But the absence of the Tins & Advents accounts for the substantially lower overall card production.
Now let me detail what these numbers consist of and how that compares to Holiday Baseball, because the differences might surprise you.
Total Parallels:
NFL- 6,126,126
MLB- 50,448,546
Remember how people started ripping baseball and somehow 70% of the box was parallels- mostly the Reds & Greens that were not on the odds sheet? Apparently, the football department didn't care for that as they're nonexistent in the NFL release.
Total Inserts:
NFL- 624,040
MLB- 3,477,968
No Ornaments or Making the Nice List to be found in NFL.
Total Relics:
NFL- 0
MLB- 2,375
MLB cut relics by 99.2%. The NFL department apparently looked at that and said "Cowards! We'll finish the job."
I've said it before, but I want to say it again. I'm not a huge fan of relics. They've run their course. However, there is no product that makes more sense for Relics than a $30 Holiday Mega Box. And I'm a little surprised they nuked the Christmas Relics. I mean, can it even be called Holiday without a game-used Santa Claus Relic?
Total Autos:
NFL- 65,872
MLB- 9,699
Well this is interesting. NFL Holiday is roughly half the size of MLB, and within 10% production of Megas. Yet somehow NFL has a 579% increase in Autos over MLB. I'm scratching my damn head about that one. Definitely a win for collectors.
Chromes:
NFL- 622,031
MLB- 598,191
The "Chromes Per Box" rate is very similar between these two. And I know you can't tell from this, but you want to know what's wildly different? Remember the Chrome issues I had with baseball on my recent breakdown?
If you haven't read that, you should.
xitter.cf/WaxMetrix/status/21127…
OK, shameless self-promotion over. Here's what's crazy...you'll be happy to know that NFL has ZERO BASE CHROMES. None.
The most common are unnumbered Refractors & Sparkles. I have to point out, the print run on those two are FAR higher than the baseball versions, but I’ll take those over janky base Chromes any day.
Similar Chrome rates (but w/out base), way more Autos, complete evisceration of already scarce relics. There's your Hit Rates in a nutshell.
Part 3: Heat Map
Expected Hit Rates:
NFL Holiday Megas:
Autos- 1 per 9.5 boxes (~2 per case. Remember these were 1 in ~3 cases of baseball?)
Parallels/Variations- ~10/box
Inserts- 1/box
Numbered Cards- 0.32 (1 per 3.1 boxes. Slightly worse than MLB, which was 1 per 2.4 boxes.)
Chromes- 1/box
Numbered Chromes- 1 per 3.9 boxes
Holiday SPs/SSPs- 2.1/box
One distinct change is concerning Holiday SPs. In baseball, we had Front SPs & SSPs and Back SPs & SSPs. For NFL, that list is a little shorter- everyone's favorite Holiday Back SPs, something called Holiday Spirit Variation (SSPs), and Hidden Elves.
From an Insert perspective, again, there are no true Rare Inserts. There are 4 Insert sets (Including Hidden Elves), which will fall at a combined 1 per box. So not "rare" per se, but also not crazy printed either as you'll see in the print runs section.
Percentage of Numbered Autos:
NFL- 11.72%
MLB- 42.66%
I wouldn't consider this of utmost importance in Holiday, but I wanted to mention it since it's quite a bit different than Holiday MLB.
As a whole, there are multitudes more Autos in NFL, but that also means a vast majority of them are of the base, unnumbered variety.
Part 4: Are You a Dirtbag?
I noticed a few interesting additions that are a slight departure from Holiday Baseball.
When I wrote that breakdown, I wasn't sure whether Baseball would have Stocking Stuffer packs. There were a few parallels on the odds sheet that had me wondering. Turns out, the Gingerbread Man, Candy Cane, and Stocking parallels are simply rare, unnumbered cards seeded into regular packs.
Holiday Football is a little different.
The odds clearly show five different "Stocking Stuffer" parallels. And wouldn't you know it, they're the exact same five from last year's Stocking Stuffer packs.
Here's the catch. Nothing on the odds sheet indicates that actual Stocking Stuffer PACKS exist this year. So my suspicion is that, as with baseball, these parallels have simply been mixed into regular packs, giving everyone a shot at them.
I'm almost 100% certain they won't be numbered. And almost 100% certain that most people will have absolutely no idea how rare they are.
And while we're on the subject, Topps has managed to pull off one of the most hilariously absurd parallel troll jobs I've seen in a long time. Same parallel. Two Holiday products. And a difference in rarity that's almost too stupid to believe.
I'll save that little nugget for the Print Runs section.
So make sure to take a good look at the Print Runs section before you go. It will be on my Substack. And maybe get those eBay searches ready. It's not often we get unnumbered parallels with Print Runs this low. There are even unnumbered 1/1s. Allegedly. There could be some seriously sneaky deals on some of these...
...Which brings me to a moral dilemma that I always wrestle with.
Here's the way I see it. Mostly.
If someone lists a card on eBay and you pay their asking price, you've done nothing wrong. If they sell you a card for $14.99 that happens to have a print run of 10, that's not your problem. You put in the due diligence. They did not. And they certainly could have.
But what if that seller is 12 years old and just doesn't know any better? How greasy would you feel snagging what could be a $100+ card for $5 from some kid?
So there's the dilemma. Do you say something? Or do you just hit "Buy Now"?
Me? I typically just buy it. And hope they're not 12. If I don't buy it, someone else will, right?
In retrospect, I might just be a dirtbag. God, I hope not.
Part 5: Value Map
$/Card- 30¢
$/Parallel- $3.00 (MLB- 42¢)
$/Auto- $284.16 (MLB- $1,768.50)
$/# Card- $93.87 (MLB- $73.17)
$/# Auto- $2,424.59
$/Chrome- $30.00
$/Quality Hit- $168.75 (MLB- $206.13)
Part 6: What Would the Squatch Do?
In most ways, it's pretty clear that Holiday Football is superior to Holiday Baseball. Except one big one, of course. The checklist.
The 2026 baseball rookie class is ridiculously deep. Football? Not so much.
But, as I mentioned in the baseball write-up, you're not ripping Holiday Football because of all the potential nukes. I'm going to repeat myself here because I think it's important. And because it's Holiday.
If you've got someone pretty cool to share this hobby with, consider yourself fortunate. This is the time to rip for the sheer enjoyment of it. As my son and I will be doing.
These are not a stash, a flip, or a monetary investment. They're a cheap way to spend time with someone you care about. Make it happen.
Happy Holidays.
Part 7: Print Runs
Base Card Production:
~370,520 ea
As much as I'd love to share these potentially lucrative little print run treasures with the millions of folks on X,
I can't just make it that easy.
Don't worry, the full print runs are posted on my Substack:
slabsquatch.substack.com/p/2…
#thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2026ToppsHolidayNFL
2026 Topps Holiday MLB Deep Dive
Maybe the cliffhanger I dropped right before my evening dinner plans was a bit excessive. But I assure you...it wasn't just for clicks.
Holiday is back. And while it might look like the same old Holiday we've come to know, there are some pretty massive changes beneath the candy canes and Christmas lights .
I'm happy to get into the what, the how, and the how much. But the why? Can't help you there. That's on Topps.
Welcome to 2026 Topps Holiday Baseball.
If you like diving in the weeds of Topps products, be sure to check out my Substack, where I've given way too much attention to a couple hundred Topps releases at this point:
slabsquatch.substack.com/p/2…
Part 1: The Bones
Release day for Holiday is tomorrow, October 21, at 11am CT.
If you aren't able to hop on right at 11 to procure your share, don't worry about it. If pre-sale was any indication, it'll be in stock for a while. Not to mention, you'll be seeing it in every retail card aisle in America. This is not, by any means, a short printed product.
First, let me tell you about the things that haven't changed.
We still have Megas, Tins, and Advent Calendars.
Megas still have 10 packs of 10 cards per box.
Tins still have 1 pack of 59 cards per tin.
Advent Calendars still contain 24 packs of 5 cards each.
What remains unclear is whether the buyback pack and buyback card are returning. Neither appears on the odds sheet, but they weren't listed last year, either. So I'm not ready to rule them out.
I doubt many collectors will lose sleep if the junk wax pack disappears. But I sure hope the buyback card sticks around.
Last year, that single card was essentially the only thing in Advent Calendars with any legitimate chase potential. Some were numbered, plenty were 1/1s, and I saw a couple absolute monsters come out of that slot.
The most fascinating was a Sapphire Padparadscha Hidden Gems Paul Skenes with a Holiday stamp in place of the 1/1 stamp.
I had basically written off Advent Calendars because the regular packs offered no numbered cards or really any hit potential at all. And then somebody goes and pulls a card like THAT. I just love watching someone pull a nuclear warhead out of a product I'd already declared a dud.
Retail Pricing:
Mega- $30
Tins- $15 (3 Tin box $45)
Advent Calendars- $60
Part 2: Production Numbers
Total cards in the Product:
113,712,600
How this changes from last year is a bit murky. Last year, we were unable to calculate precise production of Advent Calendars due to the absence of any numbered parallels to go by.
If I deduct Advent Calendar production from 2026 Holiday, that leaves 96,257,600 cards. Assuming similar Advent production, this only represents a 2.5% increase in total production YOY. I believe Advent Calendar production actually decreased from last year, but either way, the change in overall production from last year is insignificant.
Total Production by Format:
Mega- 571,760 boxes (28,588 cases) ---> -2.4% YOY
Tins- 662,400 tins (220,800 3-tin boxes) ----> +10.8% YOY
Advent Calendars- 145,458 calendars (18,182 cases) ---> YOY Unknown
Up to now, everything is pretty much as expected. Nothing to report here, right?
Hold up. We haven't even begun to discuss what actually changed. And the answer is...a lot.
Part 3: Going Through Some Changes...
About those "hits".
First, let me be clear...Holiday is not, and has never been a Hit-centric product. Holiday's vibes are all about a fun and whimsical alternative to flagship base cards, some semi-short-print chases with Hidden Elves and Christmasy elements, and relics galore. Autos have always been extremely scarce in Holiday. And up until last year, Holiday Chrome didn't even exist.
It seems Topps has completely changed directions this year. I want to highlight the differences in those "hits" from last year.
Total Chrome Cards Throughout the Product:
2026- 885,897
2025- 291,401
YOY: +204%
This is significant. And I'll come back to it momentarily.
It's important to note, last year Chrome parallels were only available in the Mega Box format. This year, you'll also find roughly 1 Chrome for every 4 Advent Calendars. Still no Chrome in Tins though.
Total Autos:
2026- 9,699
2025- 11,985
YOY: -19%
Similar production, yet over 2,000 fewer Autos from an already Auto starved product.
Total Parallels:
For Holiday, I count parallels as not only Chrome & colors, but variations like Hidden Elf, SPs, and SSPs, since they don't fit smoothly into the insert category.
2026- 15,796,425
2025- 10,526,814
This one is a bit deceptive due to the unknown quantity of Advent Calendars in 2025. However, for 2026, there are almost 4.4m Parallels in Advent Calendars. So let's call this about a 800k card increase in Parallels, or roughly 7.5%. Not super significant.
Total Relics:
2026- 2,375
2025- 309,682
YOY: -99.2%
Yep. Not a typo. If Topps odds are correct, Relics have decreased by over 99% and have vanished almost entirely from Holiday.
Now, on the surface, I can't say I hate it. Plain napkin relics by the pile have lost any kind of magic they ever held and carry virtually no value. Although, if there was a product where they kinda make sense it would be $30 Mega Boxes of Holiday.
The problem is, those were your hits. Autos were always almost non-existent. Now relics are too.
Since relics are extremely tough pulls now, it would be great if Topps took a little care and made them thick, chunky, dirty, Tier One style relics. But they won't. Not a chance.
So what are we left with? Well, Chromes obviously.
And quite honestly, I kinda suspect most people would prefer Chromes to Relics. At least the tiny, bland, player worn handkerchief relics that were employed by Holiday products. And last year all the Chromes were numbered. I mean, most were /499, but still numbered.
So, if Chromes and Relics are a net neutral, what's the problem?
The problem is, over 60% of those Chromes this year are not numbered. Just straight up, unnumbered, base Chrome. Which, in the absence of virtually all Autos & Relics, will now be considered your 1 "hit" per box.
A base Chrome.
Queue "Price is Right loser" sound.
Part 4: Heat Map
Expected Hit Rates by Format:
Mega Box:
Autos- 1 per ~59 boxes (~3 cases)
Parallels- 11.1/box
Inserts- 1/box
SPs/SSPs- 3/box
Numbered cards- 0.41/box (41% of boxes should contain a numbered card. Of these, 38% should be numbered Chrome, with about 3% containing a numbered paper parallel.)
Chrome- 1.05 per box (since the number is not exactly 1, there is a chance a small number of boxes have multiple Chromes per box. And there's always a chance some boxes contain no Chromes.)
Numbered Chrome- 0.38/box (38% of boxes should contain a numbered Chrome card)
Relics- 1 per 240.75 boxes
Tins:
Autos are not pullable from Tins.
Parallels- 7.6/tin (including 4 base Holiday Lights & 2 Blue Metallic Holiday Lights)
Inserts- 1 per 3 Tins
SPs/SSPs- 1.1/tin
Numbered cards- 0.04 (~4% of Tins should contain a numbered card.)
Chrome cards are not pullable from Tins.
Relics are not pullable from Tins.
Advent Calendars:
Autos are not pullable from Advent Calendars.
Parallels- ~30 per Calendar (includes 24 Holiday Plaid, 2 Base Stickers, 1 Variation SP, & 1 Variation Back SP, & 2 Chrome Plaid Refractors)
Inserts- 18.5
SPs/SSPs- 4.13 per Calendar (Includes 2 Base Stickers)
Numbered cards- 0.26 (26% of Advent Calendars should contain a numbered Chrome Refractor)
Chrome- 2 (both Chrome Plaid Refractors)
Relics are not pullable from Tins.
Stocking Stuffer Packs:
In last year's Holiday, every 10 cases or so, lucky degens would find a Stocking Stuffer bonus pack. Similar to Bowman Snack Packs, these contained 10 unnumbered parallels with print runs of ~10 copies ea.
This year, I'm not seeing anything in the odds that says we will definitively have Stocking Stuffers again.
However....there are a few parallels that have me wondering. Namely a little grouping on the odds sheet of Metallic Gingerbread Man, Metallic Candy Canes, & Metallic Stockings. I distinctly remember these being in Stocking Stuffer packs last year, because I actually pulled one.
This year, these seem to be numbered (Gingerbread /50, Candy Cane /25, Stocking /10), so at minimum the packs if they exist will be different. Or at least the parallels will have different print runs and not all ~10. If you see one of these packs in the wild, please let me know.
Part 5: Value Map
$/Card:
1) Tins- 25¢
2) Megas- 30¢
3) Advent- 50¢
$/Parallel:
1) Tins- $1.97
2) Advent- $1.99
3) Mega- $2.70
$/Auto:
1) Mega- $1,768.50
$/# Card:
1) Mega- $73.17
2) Advent- $230.77
3) Tins- $375.00
$/Chrome:
1) Mega- $28.68
2) Advent- $30.40
$/Quality Hit:
1) Mega- $206.13
2) Advent- $484.14
3) Tins- $3,091.14
Part 6: Best Format
As you can clearly see, the only format that doesn't suck significantly worse than last year are Advent Calendars, which *shockingly* are actually better than last year. The much-needed chase of a small Plaid Chrome rainbow makes these not disastrous, and miles better than the tins, which are basically void of any redeeming qualities whatsoever.
OK, weirdly the tins are the best way to pull Hidden Elf SPs...so there's that.
That said, for us degenerate rippers, I'm a long way from calling Advent Calendars a good format for ripping. $484 per Quality Hit is abysmal. But hey, they are good for doing exactly what they are meant for...Advent Calendaring. It's just nice to see them have a wee bit of upside this year.
As much as it pains me to say it, Megas are still easily the best format, although they took a huge step backwards. I guess it's lofty to expect to see an actual hit in every $30 box of Holiday...but when those already inconsequential hits are being replaced with literal base Chrome cards? Come on, man. That's really tough to swallow.
Part 7: What Would the Squatch Do?
Pretty simple. I pre-ordered a stack, and I'm going to rip them with my son.
No stashing. No flipping. No going hard after monsters. Just ripping packs, having fun, and spending some quality time with someone who enjoys this ridiculous hobby as much as I do.
And if you've got someone pretty cool in your life who maybe doesn't share your obsession with cardboard, try it out just once. Sit down with a cup of coffee or hot chocolate, and talk about life. And baseball. Or whatever it is you have in common.
Card box in hand or not. Doesn't matter.
Not every rip needs to be an investment. And not every card needs to be worth something.
Your investment is your time.
Sometimes the best thing you pull out of a box isn't a card at all. And I think that's exactly what Topps Holiday is supposed to be.
That's the hit, brother.
Part 8: The Print Runs
Numbered paper parallel structure is a bit weird and looks like this:
Mega:
Purple Glitter /99
Metallic Gingerbread Man /50
25th /25
Metallic Candy Cane /25
Red Metallic /10
Metallic Stocking /10
Menorah /8
Green Glitter /5
Golden Glitter /1
Tins:
Purple Holiday Lights /99
Red Metallic Holiday Lights /10
Green Holiday Lights /5
Golden Metallic Holiday Lights /1
Base Card Production:
~472,130 ea
Chrome Base:
~1,910 ea
Unnumbered Parallels:
Glitter Holiday (Mega only)- ~14,295 ea
Blue Glitter Holiday (Mega only)- ~2,860 ea
Light Blue & White Glitter Holiday (Mega & Tin only)- ~4,515 ea
Snow Days- ~330 ea
Base Holiday Lights (Tins only)- ~13,250 ea
Blue Metallic Holiday Lights (Tins only)- ~6,625 ea
Base Plaid (Advent only)- ~17,455 ea
Base Stickers (Advent only)- ~1,455 ea
Holiday Variation SP (25 card CL)- ~51,740 ea
Holiday Variation Backs SP (25 card CL)- ~51,740 ea
Holiday Variation SSP (25 card CL, Mega & Tins only)- ~666 ea
Holiday Variation Backs SSP (25 card CL, Mega & Tins only)- ~666 ea
Hidden Elf (25 card CL, Mega & Tins only)- ~2,620 ea
Chrome Plaid Refractor (Advent only)- ~1,250 ea
Base Chrome Refractors (Mega only)- ~100 ea (may or may not be numbered)
Base Sparkle Refractors (Mega only)- ~50 ea (may or may not be numbered)
Unnumbered Inserts:
Oversized Die Cut Ornament (20 card CL, Mega only)- ~28,590 ea
Die Cut Ornament (20 card CL, Tins only)- ~11,040 ea
Making the Nice List (25 card CL, Advent only)- ~107,415 ea
Unnumbered Autos:
Base Autos (no checklist out, but based on odds looks to be about 104 subjects deep)- ~55 ea
Holiday Relics Autos (45 card CL) should be numbered /5.
Holiday Faux Relics Autos (5 card CL)- should be numbered /25.
Unnumbered Relics:
Base Holiday Relics (45 card CL)- ~35 ea
Faux Relics (5 card CL)- ~12 ea
Glitter Holiday Relics (45 card CL)- ~12 ea
#thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2026ToppsHolidayMLB
Anyone ripped any Holiday NFL yet?
Curious if the glut of unlisted Red & Green Foil parallels that showed up in baseball are also a thing in Football.
I could go watch some rips probably, but busy doing research and figured someone probably already knows.
2026 Heritage NFL Deep Dive
We are 24 hours into Topps' first foray with Heritage NFL and it's gone pretty much exactly as expected.
Up to now, I've been a bit reserved about this product. Not because I didn't have opinions. I have plenty. But I'm just not one to throw them out there without plenty of actual facts to back them up. So I needed to see the odds before I started running my mouth.
Well, I've seen them. And let's just say...I wasn't exactly blindsided.
Now, I didn't come here to bury Heritage. I have no intention of shredding it for its abysmally low hit rate and tedious rip experience. That's just Heritage being Heritage. If you know, you know. And if you didn't, now you do.
If anyone deserves the smoke, it's big bully resellers capitalizing on the NFL hype and asking new and uninformed collectors to fork over $250/box.
Before you bite, spend a few minutes with me. Let's look at what Heritage actually is and what you're getting with the price of admission. I guarantee you'll be able to make a more informed decision.
And hey, if there are any reasons to be excited about this release buried in the numbers somewhere, I'll find them.
But I'm not about to polish a turd just because it's fresh and wearing an NFL logo. I'm here to tell you honestly what you can expect.
Welcome to 2026 Heritage NFL.
Part 1: The Rundown
Launch day: Wednesday, October 21st.
With Heritage, you can expect a lot of cards.
Hobby- 20 packs of 8 = 160 cards. Drop price- $140.
Value- 8 packs of 8 = 64 cards. Price- $25.
Mega- 17 packs of 8 = 136 cards. Price- $50.
Fat Pack- 20 cards. Price- $7.
Honestly, I don't think Topps is out of their minds for charging $140/Hobby box, even though it's a lot for Heritage.
If Topps priced this where it belongs, around $100-$120/box, it would just end up selling for $160-$180 on the secondary market anyway. So I can't blame Topps for wanting a piece of that middleman money.
The problem is, resellers still feel compelled to slap their 75% on top, regardless of the starting price.
Fortunately, buyers seem to be smarter than they give us credit for. Blowout and DA have already dropped from $250 to $210 and $225, respectively. Still too much, but we're getting there.
It's pretty simple. If we don't buy it, they can't sell it. And eventually, the price has to come down.
Part 2: Production Numbers
Total Cards in the Product:
150,007,360
OK, that's a lot of cards. But how does that compare to the most recent Heritage baseball release? Are you sitting down?
2026 Heritage MLB- 82,164,240
It's only 82.6% larger than the latest Heritage baseball release...where Heritage has a sizable following and an actual pedigree. Like, what? WTF Topps?
Total Production by Format and Compared to MLB:
Hobby- 102,744 boxes (8,562 cases) ----> -11.5%
Value- 725,146 boxes (18,129 cases)-----> +118%
Mega- 181,287 boxes (9,064 cases) ----> +10.1%
Fat Packs- 3,125,200 packs (28,937 cases) ----> +564.2%
MLB even had ~300k Hangers produced, while NFL has none. Yet somehow, we still managed to nearly double overall production.
Part 3: Heat Map
Expected Hit Rates:
Hobby:
Autos- 0.27/box (1 per 3.76 boxes) ~27% of boxes should contain an auto
Relics- 0.8 per box (~80% of boxes should contain a relic, roughly 7% of boxes should contain an extra hit)
Parallels/Variations- 22.8/box
Inserts- 3.9/box
Numbered Cards- 1 per 3.1 boxes
Chromes- 15.4/box
Relic Autos- 1 per 26.7 boxes (2.2 cases)
Value:
Autos- 1 per 26.7 boxes (1.5 per case)
Relics- 1 per 18.6 boxes (2.15 per case)
Parallels/Variations- 5.5/box
Inserts- 0.7/box
Numbered cards- 1 per 8.8 boxes
Chromes- 3.7/box
Relic Autos- 1 per 4,861 boxes (121.5 cases)
Mega:
Autos- 1 per 13.3 boxes (1.5 per case)
Relics- 1 per 4.7 boxes (4.3 per case)
Parallels/Variations- 11.6/box
Inserts- 1.4/box
Numbered Cards- 1 per 4.4 boxes
Chromes- 7.8/box
Relic Autos- 1 per 1,380 boxes (69 cases)
Fat Packs:
Autos- 1 per 106.5 packs (1 per case)
Relics- 1 per 100.7 packs (1 per case)
Parallels/Variations- 1.7/pack
Inserts- 0.4/pack
Numbered Cards- 1 per 35.3 packs
Chromes- 1.1/pack
Relic Autos- N/A
Rare Inserts are not a thing in Heritage. All inserts are common with minimal desirability outside of set collectors.
On the bright side, even though Autos are tough in Heritage, this is actually quite a step up from what Heritage MLB folks are accustomed to.
For comparison, Autos in 2026 Heritage MLB Hobby boxes fell at a rate of 1 in 8 boxes. So we should see them about twice as often in NFL.
Now, you want to hear something wild?
Some analysts will tell you that, based on the numbers, at current market prices, Value & Mega boxes are better for pulling autos. And they're not wrong, per se. But the Squatch likes to keep it real.
On paper, once Hobby is over $180/box, Megas and Values actually become more cost-effective for pulling any random auto. But there's a pretty massive catch.
Traditionally in baseball, Real One Autos, even the base unnumbered Blue Ink version, are desirable and hold really good value. The numbered Red Ink Variations tend to be some of the more desirable Autos of the year of any big star or rookie. So we can't completely discard the value of base autos.
But let's dig a little deeper.
I think we can all agree we'd much prefer an actual serial numbered auto over a base auto. Let's see how that changes the equation.
Percentage of Numbered Autos by Format:
Hobby- 72.65%
Mega- 7.59%
Value- 4.01%
Fat Pack- 2.1%
That's not a typo.
If you pull an Auto from a retail format, it will almost invariably be a base unnumbered auto. Whereas, if you pull an Auto from Hobby, it has a better than 70% chance of being a numbered parallel.
In fact, the highly sought after Real One Red Ink Autos /76 are EASIER to pull from Hobby boxes than the unnumbered Blue Ink variety.
Part 4: Value Map
Since there's no chance you're getting Hobby boxes at $140 any more, it doesn't make sense to use that for metrics. Without any sort of "Case Hit" chase, I think Heritage is a bit safer to buy sealed from ebay than many other products. Right now, you can readily find Hobby boxes for $175 on ebay, so that's what I'm going with.
$/Card:
1) Fat Pack- 35¢
2) Mega- 37¢
3) Value- 39¢
4) Hobby- $1.09
$/Parallel:
1) Fat Pack- $4.19
2) Mega- $4.31
3) Value- $4.55
4) Hobby- $7.66
$/Auto:
1) Hobby- $658.00
2) Value/Mega- $667.00
3) Fat Pack- $745.15
$/Relic:
1) Hobby- $218.75
2) Mega- $233.50
3) Value- $465.50
4) Fat Pack- $704.69
$/Numbered card:
1) Value/Mega- $220.50
2) Fat Pack- $247.03
3) Hobby- $542.50
$/Numbered Auto:
1) Hobby- $905.71
2) Mega- $8,787.88
3) Value- $16,633.42
4) Fat Pack- $35,483.33
$/Chrome:
1) Fat Pack- $6.19
2) Mega- $6.38
3) Value- $6.72
4) Hobby- $11.33
$/Quality Hit:
Includes all Parallels/Variations numbered or with a Print Run ≤76 & All Autos/Relics # ≤100. Base unnumbered Autos, by definition, will not count as a Quality Hit for this metric.
1) Hobby- $306.43
2) Mega- $312.40
3) Value- $319.93
4) Fat Pack- $349.37
Part 5: Best Format
The numbers say Values & Megas offer very similar bang for the buck and are considerably better than Hobby for Parallels & Variations. If those are your jam, or you are a set completionist, then I get it. Value Boxes & Mega Boxes are adequate.
If you need any sort of higher-end potential to be satisfied, you'll probably want to stick with Hobby. Retail Heritage can be a dry & tedious experience. Hobby is marginally better in that regard, but the Autograph dynamics alone are enough to keep Hobby firmly ahead of any retail format.
Part 6: What Would the Squatch Do?
I want to reiterate...Heritage as a whole is NOT a pure hit-based product.
Traditionally, in baseball at least, it appealed to set collectors who wanted a cheap rip and didn't care to pay up for all the nuke potential. Even though, over the years, Real One Red Ink Autos have turned into massive hits themselves. To put it bluntly, Heritage has always been a boring rip, but a cheap rip.
In the last couple years, Topps is attempting to make it appeal more to us degens by adding exponentially more Chrome cards to the mix, which is fine. But Heritage is an acquired taste.
I just don't see NFL collectors with their "all the shiny" tendencies and ravenous "case hit" appetites embracing the nuances of Heritage. I just don't think things like No Name Variations, Alternate Jersey Variations, and Flip Stocks, regardless of how rare, will really command desirability from NFL collectors.
A cool vintage box and a smattering of Walter Payton Rookie Card Redemptions is not enough to convince me to go hard on this product. Not to mention, this rookie class isn't exactly lighting the world on fire.
Now, of the 34 Walter Payton rookies inserted into the product, one of those 1976 Paytons is a PSA 10. So one lucky person will definitely be elated with their $75k+ pull. To that person, it will be the best product ever. To the rest of us...meh.
Personally, I won't be ripping any of this. If you do, I recommend going after the cheapest Hobby boxes you can find, which right now are $175 on ebay. But even that is a stretch.
Please do NOT pay $200+ that the Big Bully resellers are commanding. This is not a $200/box product. I truly feel like those prices will continue to fall from where they currently are.
Regardless of what you rip, there are weird variations in Heritage that will elude even the most experienced of Heritage rippers. Many of them are extremely tough to spot.
Flip Stock, as an example are ultra-scarce. And if you hold one in hand, you can spot the difference, but it definitely will not scream value. Make sure to check your codes before you file away your base. You might have a $5 variation rather than a worthless base card.
Part 7: The Print Runs
Base Card Production:
~334,310 ea
Base Chromes:
~10,060 ea
Heritage has a metric ton of unnumbered parallels, inserts, autos, and variations. With that many print runs to calculate, there's always a chance I'll need to make adjustments. And since X won't let me edit posts after the first hour, I'd rather not have potentially outdated numbers floating around.
So I've posted all the print runs on Substack, where I can update them as needed and keep everything accurate.
slabsquatch.substack.com/p/2…
It's quality over quantity with the Relics in Holiday Baseball this year. We defied the odds and hit one from our 10 boxes...and they're actually pretty sweet!
2026 Topps Holiday
In keeping up to date with analysis and print run data, sometimes odds just don't tell the whole story. It often requires real world rips to keep the data as accurate as possible. This is one of those times.
Odds do not list Green or Red Foil Holiday Parallels as being an option to pull out of Holiday Megas. However, they are both coming out in droves. So based on this, I'm adjusting some numbers in my original Deep Dive.
Both the Green Foil & Red Foil parallels seem to be fairly consistent at 3 per Mega pack. There are some exceptions, but we're going with 3 of each.
Though this doesn't affect total cards in the product, it does affect base numbers.
Base Production is now ~298,870 per player
Here are the Print Runs:
Red Foil Holiday Parallel- ~86,630 ea
Green Foil Holiday Parallel- ~86,630 ea
Since we just added 6 parallels per pack, this now equates to Megas averaging a whopping 71.75 parallels per box. If not for base cards in other formats, the Red & Green Holiday Foils would actually outnumber base cards.
Mega $/Parallel is now a crazy low 42¢.
I kinda doubt these will have any value, but we discussed that in the "What Would the Squatch Do?" section of the main write-up if you haven't seen it.
If nothing else, it will add some fun curveballs to any set completion goals you may have.
#thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2026ToppsHolidayMLB
2026 Topps Holiday MLB Deep Dive
Maybe the cliffhanger I dropped right before my evening dinner plans was a bit excessive. But I assure you...it wasn't just for clicks.
Holiday is back. And while it might look like the same old Holiday we've come to know, there are some pretty massive changes beneath the candy canes and Christmas lights .
I'm happy to get into the what, the how, and the how much. But the why? Can't help you there. That's on Topps.
Welcome to 2026 Topps Holiday Baseball.
If you like diving in the weeds of Topps products, be sure to check out my Substack, where I've given way too much attention to a couple hundred Topps releases at this point:
slabsquatch.substack.com/p/2…
Part 1: The Bones
Release day for Holiday is tomorrow, October 21, at 11am CT.
If you aren't able to hop on right at 11 to procure your share, don't worry about it. If pre-sale was any indication, it'll be in stock for a while. Not to mention, you'll be seeing it in every retail card aisle in America. This is not, by any means, a short printed product.
First, let me tell you about the things that haven't changed.
We still have Megas, Tins, and Advent Calendars.
Megas still have 10 packs of 10 cards per box.
Tins still have 1 pack of 59 cards per tin.
Advent Calendars still contain 24 packs of 5 cards each.
What remains unclear is whether the buyback pack and buyback card are returning. Neither appears on the odds sheet, but they weren't listed last year, either. So I'm not ready to rule them out.
I doubt many collectors will lose sleep if the junk wax pack disappears. But I sure hope the buyback card sticks around.
Last year, that single card was essentially the only thing in Advent Calendars with any legitimate chase potential. Some were numbered, plenty were 1/1s, and I saw a couple absolute monsters come out of that slot.
The most fascinating was a Sapphire Padparadscha Hidden Gems Paul Skenes with a Holiday stamp in place of the 1/1 stamp.
I had basically written off Advent Calendars because the regular packs offered no numbered cards or really any hit potential at all. And then somebody goes and pulls a card like THAT. I just love watching someone pull a nuclear warhead out of a product I'd already declared a dud.
Retail Pricing:
Mega- $30
Tins- $15 (3 Tin box $45)
Advent Calendars- $60
Part 2: Production Numbers
Total cards in the Product:
113,712,600
How this changes from last year is a bit murky. Last year, we were unable to calculate precise production of Advent Calendars due to the absence of any numbered parallels to go by.
If I deduct Advent Calendar production from 2026 Holiday, that leaves 96,257,600 cards. Assuming similar Advent production, this only represents a 2.5% increase in total production YOY. I believe Advent Calendar production actually decreased from last year, but either way, the change in overall production from last year is insignificant.
Total Production by Format:
Mega- 571,760 boxes (28,588 cases) ---> -2.4% YOY
Tins- 662,400 tins (220,800 3-tin boxes) ----> +10.8% YOY
Advent Calendars- 145,458 calendars (18,182 cases) ---> YOY Unknown
Up to now, everything is pretty much as expected. Nothing to report here, right?
Hold up. We haven't even begun to discuss what actually changed. And the answer is...a lot.
Part 3: Going Through Some Changes...
About those "hits".
First, let me be clear...Holiday is not, and has never been a Hit-centric product. Holiday's vibes are all about a fun and whimsical alternative to flagship base cards, some semi-short-print chases with Hidden Elves and Christmasy elements, and relics galore. Autos have always been extremely scarce in Holiday. And up until last year, Holiday Chrome didn't even exist.
It seems Topps has completely changed directions this year. I want to highlight the differences in those "hits" from last year.
Total Chrome Cards Throughout the Product:
2026- 885,897
2025- 291,401
YOY: +204%
This is significant. And I'll come back to it momentarily.
It's important to note, last year Chrome parallels were only available in the Mega Box format. This year, you'll also find roughly 1 Chrome for every 4 Advent Calendars. Still no Chrome in Tins though.
Total Autos:
2026- 9,699
2025- 11,985
YOY: -19%
Similar production, yet over 2,000 fewer Autos from an already Auto starved product.
Total Parallels:
For Holiday, I count parallels as not only Chrome & colors, but variations like Hidden Elf, SPs, and SSPs, since they don't fit smoothly into the insert category.
2026- 15,796,425
2025- 10,526,814
This one is a bit deceptive due to the unknown quantity of Advent Calendars in 2025. However, for 2026, there are almost 4.4m Parallels in Advent Calendars. So let's call this about a 800k card increase in Parallels, or roughly 7.5%. Not super significant.
Total Relics:
2026- 2,375
2025- 309,682
YOY: -99.2%
Yep. Not a typo. If Topps odds are correct, Relics have decreased by over 99% and have vanished almost entirely from Holiday.
Now, on the surface, I can't say I hate it. Plain napkin relics by the pile have lost any kind of magic they ever held and carry virtually no value. Although, if there was a product where they kinda make sense it would be $30 Mega Boxes of Holiday.
The problem is, those were your hits. Autos were always almost non-existent. Now relics are too.
Since relics are extremely tough pulls now, it would be great if Topps took a little care and made them thick, chunky, dirty, Tier One style relics. But they won't. Not a chance.
So what are we left with? Well, Chromes obviously.
And quite honestly, I kinda suspect most people would prefer Chromes to Relics. At least the tiny, bland, player worn handkerchief relics that were employed by Holiday products. And last year all the Chromes were numbered. I mean, most were /499, but still numbered.
So, if Chromes and Relics are a net neutral, what's the problem?
The problem is, over 60% of those Chromes this year are not numbered. Just straight up, unnumbered, base Chrome. Which, in the absence of virtually all Autos & Relics, will now be considered your 1 "hit" per box.
A base Chrome.
Queue "Price is Right loser" sound.
Part 4: Heat Map
Expected Hit Rates by Format:
Mega Box:
Autos- 1 per ~59 boxes (~3 cases)
Parallels- 11.1/box
Inserts- 1/box
SPs/SSPs- 3/box
Numbered cards- 0.41/box (41% of boxes should contain a numbered card. Of these, 38% should be numbered Chrome, with about 3% containing a numbered paper parallel.)
Chrome- 1.05 per box (since the number is not exactly 1, there is a chance a small number of boxes have multiple Chromes per box. And there's always a chance some boxes contain no Chromes.)
Numbered Chrome- 0.38/box (38% of boxes should contain a numbered Chrome card)
Relics- 1 per 240.75 boxes
Tins:
Autos are not pullable from Tins.
Parallels- 7.6/tin (including 4 base Holiday Lights & 2 Blue Metallic Holiday Lights)
Inserts- 1 per 3 Tins
SPs/SSPs- 1.1/tin
Numbered cards- 0.04 (~4% of Tins should contain a numbered card.)
Chrome cards are not pullable from Tins.
Relics are not pullable from Tins.
Advent Calendars:
Autos are not pullable from Advent Calendars.
Parallels- ~30 per Calendar (includes 24 Holiday Plaid, 2 Base Stickers, 1 Variation SP, & 1 Variation Back SP, & 2 Chrome Plaid Refractors)
Inserts- 18.5
SPs/SSPs- 4.13 per Calendar (Includes 2 Base Stickers)
Numbered cards- 0.26 (26% of Advent Calendars should contain a numbered Chrome Refractor)
Chrome- 2 (both Chrome Plaid Refractors)
Relics are not pullable from Tins.
Stocking Stuffer Packs:
In last year's Holiday, every 10 cases or so, lucky degens would find a Stocking Stuffer bonus pack. Similar to Bowman Snack Packs, these contained 10 unnumbered parallels with print runs of ~10 copies ea.
This year, I'm not seeing anything in the odds that says we will definitively have Stocking Stuffers again.
However....there are a few parallels that have me wondering. Namely a little grouping on the odds sheet of Metallic Gingerbread Man, Metallic Candy Canes, & Metallic Stockings. I distinctly remember these being in Stocking Stuffer packs last year, because I actually pulled one.
This year, these seem to be numbered (Gingerbread /50, Candy Cane /25, Stocking /10), so at minimum the packs if they exist will be different. Or at least the parallels will have different print runs and not all ~10. If you see one of these packs in the wild, please let me know.
Part 5: Value Map
$/Card:
1) Tins- 25¢
2) Megas- 30¢
3) Advent- 50¢
$/Parallel:
1) Tins- $1.97
2) Advent- $1.99
3) Mega- $2.70
$/Auto:
1) Mega- $1,768.50
$/# Card:
1) Mega- $73.17
2) Advent- $230.77
3) Tins- $375.00
$/Chrome:
1) Mega- $28.68
2) Advent- $30.40
$/Quality Hit:
1) Mega- $206.13
2) Advent- $484.14
3) Tins- $3,091.14
Part 6: Best Format
As you can clearly see, the only format that doesn't suck significantly worse than last year are Advent Calendars, which *shockingly* are actually better than last year. The much-needed chase of a small Plaid Chrome rainbow makes these not disastrous, and miles better than the tins, which are basically void of any redeeming qualities whatsoever.
OK, weirdly the tins are the best way to pull Hidden Elf SPs...so there's that.
That said, for us degenerate rippers, I'm a long way from calling Advent Calendars a good format for ripping. $484 per Quality Hit is abysmal. But hey, they are good for doing exactly what they are meant for...Advent Calendaring. It's just nice to see them have a wee bit of upside this year.
As much as it pains me to say it, Megas are still easily the best format, although they took a huge step backwards. I guess it's lofty to expect to see an actual hit in every $30 box of Holiday...but when those already inconsequential hits are being replaced with literal base Chrome cards? Come on, man. That's really tough to swallow.
Part 7: What Would the Squatch Do?
Pretty simple. I pre-ordered a stack, and I'm going to rip them with my son.
No stashing. No flipping. No going hard after monsters. Just ripping packs, having fun, and spending some quality time with someone who enjoys this ridiculous hobby as much as I do.
And if you've got someone pretty cool in your life who maybe doesn't share your obsession with cardboard, try it out just once. Sit down with a cup of coffee or hot chocolate, and talk about life. And baseball. Or whatever it is you have in common.
Card box in hand or not. Doesn't matter.
Not every rip needs to be an investment. And not every card needs to be worth something.
Your investment is your time.
Sometimes the best thing you pull out of a box isn't a card at all. And I think that's exactly what Topps Holiday is supposed to be.
That's the hit, brother.
Part 8: The Print Runs
Numbered paper parallel structure is a bit weird and looks like this:
Mega:
Purple Glitter /99
Metallic Gingerbread Man /50
25th /25
Metallic Candy Cane /25
Red Metallic /10
Metallic Stocking /10
Menorah /8
Green Glitter /5
Golden Glitter /1
Tins:
Purple Holiday Lights /99
Red Metallic Holiday Lights /10
Green Holiday Lights /5
Golden Metallic Holiday Lights /1
Base Card Production:
~472,130 ea
Chrome Base:
~1,910 ea
Unnumbered Parallels:
Glitter Holiday (Mega only)- ~14,295 ea
Blue Glitter Holiday (Mega only)- ~2,860 ea
Light Blue & White Glitter Holiday (Mega & Tin only)- ~4,515 ea
Snow Days- ~330 ea
Base Holiday Lights (Tins only)- ~13,250 ea
Blue Metallic Holiday Lights (Tins only)- ~6,625 ea
Base Plaid (Advent only)- ~17,455 ea
Base Stickers (Advent only)- ~1,455 ea
Holiday Variation SP (25 card CL)- ~51,740 ea
Holiday Variation Backs SP (25 card CL)- ~51,740 ea
Holiday Variation SSP (25 card CL, Mega & Tins only)- ~666 ea
Holiday Variation Backs SSP (25 card CL, Mega & Tins only)- ~666 ea
Hidden Elf (25 card CL, Mega & Tins only)- ~2,620 ea
Chrome Plaid Refractor (Advent only)- ~1,250 ea
Base Chrome Refractors (Mega only)- ~100 ea (may or may not be numbered)
Base Sparkle Refractors (Mega only)- ~50 ea (may or may not be numbered)
Unnumbered Inserts:
Oversized Die Cut Ornament (20 card CL, Mega only)- ~28,590 ea
Die Cut Ornament (20 card CL, Tins only)- ~11,040 ea
Making the Nice List (25 card CL, Advent only)- ~107,415 ea
Unnumbered Autos:
Base Autos (no checklist out, but based on odds looks to be about 104 subjects deep)- ~55 ea
Holiday Relics Autos (45 card CL) should be numbered /5.
Holiday Faux Relics Autos (5 card CL)- should be numbered /25.
Unnumbered Relics:
Base Holiday Relics (45 card CL)- ~35 ea
Faux Relics (5 card CL)- ~12 ea
Glitter Holiday Relics (45 card CL)- ~12 ea
#thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2026ToppsHolidayMLB
Just wanted to let everyone know I am on the road today and won't be able to do any analysis until late tonight at the earliest.
This likely affects two releases:
Heritage Football, for which I fully expect to see odds drop in a few hours prior to the 12pm CT drop.
If you are not in the Heritage ecosystem, you can expect a very Flagshippy paper release with some Chrome inserts. There will be very few numbered cards with this one. SPs are things like flipped helmet graphics, different unis, and no name variations, which if I'm being honest doesn't really do much for their desirability. It's basically Topps saying "you should like these more because there are less of them".
If we're lucky, autos will fall 1 in 2 boxes, but realistically probably 1 in 3 boxes. Probably barely worth it at drop price. Definitely not worth what they'll be going for on secondary market.
I am aware Vault Disney already has odds out, but I have not had a chance to dive into those yet. Though I will put out the numbers when I have them, honestly there won't be a ton I can help you with there.
It's a "2 card and a box topper" product for $1200. That alone should filter out all but the most ardent of Disney fans.
Probably every card will be numbered. 1 pack will be a Diamond/Insert/Relic/Sketch, while the other card will be an Auto/Auto Relic/Auto Booklet.
If I haven't lost you yet, you might want to take a look at the checklist and see what it does for you. I haven't, but fully expect there to be a litany of massive names in the Disney ecosystem. If you're on board, go for it.
You don't need me breaking down hit rates. They're all hits. As with Vault Marvel, there probably won't be any $14 autos. These will be low numbered and desirable, by and large.
Good luck with the queue gremlins today, if you're leaning that way.
#thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2026HeritageNFL #2026VaultDisney
2026 Topps Holiday MLB Deep Dive
Maybe the cliffhanger I dropped right before my evening dinner plans was a bit excessive. But I assure you...it wasn't just for clicks.
Holiday is back. And while it might look like the same old Holiday we've come to know, there are some pretty massive changes beneath the candy canes and Christmas lights .
I'm happy to get into the what, the how, and the how much. But the why? Can't help you there. That's on Topps.
Welcome to 2026 Topps Holiday Baseball.
If you like diving in the weeds of Topps products, be sure to check out my Substack, where I've given way too much attention to a couple hundred Topps releases at this point:
slabsquatch.substack.com/p/2…
Part 1: The Bones
Release day for Holiday is tomorrow, October 21, at 11am CT.
If you aren't able to hop on right at 11 to procure your share, don't worry about it. If pre-sale was any indication, it'll be in stock for a while. Not to mention, you'll be seeing it in every retail card aisle in America. This is not, by any means, a short printed product.
First, let me tell you about the things that haven't changed.
We still have Megas, Tins, and Advent Calendars.
Megas still have 10 packs of 10 cards per box.
Tins still have 1 pack of 59 cards per tin.
Advent Calendars still contain 24 packs of 5 cards each.
What remains unclear is whether the buyback pack and buyback card are returning. Neither appears on the odds sheet, but they weren't listed last year, either. So I'm not ready to rule them out.
I doubt many collectors will lose sleep if the junk wax pack disappears. But I sure hope the buyback card sticks around.
Last year, that single card was essentially the only thing in Advent Calendars with any legitimate chase potential. Some were numbered, plenty were 1/1s, and I saw a couple absolute monsters come out of that slot.
The most fascinating was a Sapphire Padparadscha Hidden Gems Paul Skenes with a Holiday stamp in place of the 1/1 stamp.
I had basically written off Advent Calendars because the regular packs offered no numbered cards or really any hit potential at all. And then somebody goes and pulls a card like THAT. I just love watching someone pull a nuclear warhead out of a product I'd already declared a dud.
Retail Pricing:
Mega- $30
Tins- $15 (3 Tin box $45)
Advent Calendars- $60
Part 2: Production Numbers
Total cards in the Product:
113,712,600
How this changes from last year is a bit murky. Last year, we were unable to calculate precise production of Advent Calendars due to the absence of any numbered parallels to go by.
If I deduct Advent Calendar production from 2026 Holiday, that leaves 96,257,600 cards. Assuming similar Advent production, this only represents a 2.5% increase in total production YOY. I believe Advent Calendar production actually decreased from last year, but either way, the change in overall production from last year is insignificant.
Total Production by Format:
Mega- 571,760 boxes (28,588 cases) ---> -2.4% YOY
Tins- 662,400 tins (220,800 3-tin boxes) ----> +10.8% YOY
Advent Calendars- 145,458 calendars (18,182 cases) ---> YOY Unknown
Up to now, everything is pretty much as expected. Nothing to report here, right?
Hold up. We haven't even begun to discuss what actually changed. And the answer is...a lot.
Part 3: Going Through Some Changes...
About those "hits".
First, let me be clear...Holiday is not, and has never been a Hit-centric product. Holiday's vibes are all about a fun and whimsical alternative to flagship base cards, some semi-short-print chases with Hidden Elves and Christmasy elements, and relics galore. Autos have always been extremely scarce in Holiday. And up until last year, Holiday Chrome didn't even exist.
It seems Topps has completely changed directions this year. I want to highlight the differences in those "hits" from last year.
Total Chrome Cards Throughout the Product:
2026- 885,897
2025- 291,401
YOY: +204%
This is significant. And I'll come back to it momentarily.
It's important to note, last year Chrome parallels were only available in the Mega Box format. This year, you'll also find roughly 1 Chrome for every 4 Advent Calendars. Still no Chrome in Tins though.
Total Autos:
2026- 9,699
2025- 11,985
YOY: -19%
Similar production, yet over 2,000 fewer Autos from an already Auto starved product.
Total Parallels:
For Holiday, I count parallels as not only Chrome & colors, but variations like Hidden Elf, SPs, and SSPs, since they don't fit smoothly into the insert category.
2026- 15,796,425
2025- 10,526,814
This one is a bit deceptive due to the unknown quantity of Advent Calendars in 2025. However, for 2026, there are almost 4.4m Parallels in Advent Calendars. So let's call this about a 800k card increase in Parallels, or roughly 7.5%. Not super significant.
Total Relics:
2026- 2,375
2025- 309,682
YOY: -99.2%
Yep. Not a typo. If Topps odds are correct, Relics have decreased by over 99% and have vanished almost entirely from Holiday.
Now, on the surface, I can't say I hate it. Plain napkin relics by the pile have lost any kind of magic they ever held and carry virtually no value. Although, if there was a product where they kinda make sense it would be $30 Mega Boxes of Holiday.
The problem is, those were your hits. Autos were always almost non-existent. Now relics are too.
Since relics are extremely tough pulls now, it would be great if Topps took a little care and made them thick, chunky, dirty, Tier One style relics. But they won't. Not a chance.
So what are we left with? Well, Chromes obviously.
And quite honestly, I kinda suspect most people would prefer Chromes to Relics. At least the tiny, bland, player worn handkerchief relics that were employed by Holiday products. And last year all the Chromes were numbered. I mean, most were /499, but still numbered.
So, if Chromes and Relics are a net neutral, what's the problem?
The problem is, over 60% of those Chromes this year are not numbered. Just straight up, unnumbered, base Chrome. Which, in the absence of virtually all Autos & Relics, will now be considered your 1 "hit" per box.
A base Chrome.
Queue "Price is Right loser" sound.
Part 4: Heat Map
Expected Hit Rates by Format:
Mega Box:
Autos- 1 per ~59 boxes (~3 cases)
Parallels- 11.1/box
Inserts- 1/box
SPs/SSPs- 3/box
Numbered cards- 0.41/box (41% of boxes should contain a numbered card. Of these, 38% should be numbered Chrome, with about 3% containing a numbered paper parallel.)
Chrome- 1.05 per box (since the number is not exactly 1, there is a chance a small number of boxes have multiple Chromes per box. And there's always a chance some boxes contain no Chromes.)
Numbered Chrome- 0.38/box (38% of boxes should contain a numbered Chrome card)
Relics- 1 per 240.75 boxes
Tins:
Autos are not pullable from Tins.
Parallels- 7.6/tin (including 4 base Holiday Lights & 2 Blue Metallic Holiday Lights)
Inserts- 1 per 3 Tins
SPs/SSPs- 1.1/tin
Numbered cards- 0.04 (~4% of Tins should contain a numbered card.)
Chrome cards are not pullable from Tins.
Relics are not pullable from Tins.
Advent Calendars:
Autos are not pullable from Advent Calendars.
Parallels- ~30 per Calendar (includes 24 Holiday Plaid, 2 Base Stickers, 1 Variation SP, & 1 Variation Back SP, & 2 Chrome Plaid Refractors)
Inserts- 18.5
SPs/SSPs- 4.13 per Calendar (Includes 2 Base Stickers)
Numbered cards- 0.26 (26% of Advent Calendars should contain a numbered Chrome Refractor)
Chrome- 2 (both Chrome Plaid Refractors)
Relics are not pullable from Tins.
Stocking Stuffer Packs:
In last year's Holiday, every 10 cases or so, lucky degens would find a Stocking Stuffer bonus pack. Similar to Bowman Snack Packs, these contained 10 unnumbered parallels with print runs of ~10 copies ea.
This year, I'm not seeing anything in the odds that says we will definitively have Stocking Stuffers again.
However....there are a few parallels that have me wondering. Namely a little grouping on the odds sheet of Metallic Gingerbread Man, Metallic Candy Canes, & Metallic Stockings. I distinctly remember these being in Stocking Stuffer packs last year, because I actually pulled one.
This year, these seem to be numbered (Gingerbread /50, Candy Cane /25, Stocking /10), so at minimum the packs if they exist will be different. Or at least the parallels will have different print runs and not all ~10. If you see one of these packs in the wild, please let me know.
Part 5: Value Map
$/Card:
1) Tins- 25¢
2) Megas- 30¢
3) Advent- 50¢
$/Parallel:
1) Tins- $1.97
2) Advent- $1.99
3) Mega- $2.70
$/Auto:
1) Mega- $1,768.50
$/# Card:
1) Mega- $73.17
2) Advent- $230.77
3) Tins- $375.00
$/Chrome:
1) Mega- $28.68
2) Advent- $30.40
$/Quality Hit:
1) Mega- $206.13
2) Advent- $484.14
3) Tins- $3,091.14
Part 6: Best Format
As you can clearly see, the only format that doesn't suck significantly worse than last year are Advent Calendars, which *shockingly* are actually better than last year. The much-needed chase of a small Plaid Chrome rainbow makes these not disastrous, and miles better than the tins, which are basically void of any redeeming qualities whatsoever.
OK, weirdly the tins are the best way to pull Hidden Elf SPs...so there's that.
That said, for us degenerate rippers, I'm a long way from calling Advent Calendars a good format for ripping. $484 per Quality Hit is abysmal. But hey, they are good for doing exactly what they are meant for...Advent Calendaring. It's just nice to see them have a wee bit of upside this year.
As much as it pains me to say it, Megas are still easily the best format, although they took a huge step backwards. I guess it's lofty to expect to see an actual hit in every $30 box of Holiday...but when those already inconsequential hits are being replaced with literal base Chrome cards? Come on, man. That's really tough to swallow.
Part 7: What Would the Squatch Do?
Pretty simple. I pre-ordered a stack, and I'm going to rip them with my son.
No stashing. No flipping. No going hard after monsters. Just ripping packs, having fun, and spending some quality time with someone who enjoys this ridiculous hobby as much as I do.
And if you've got someone pretty cool in your life who maybe doesn't share your obsession with cardboard, try it out just once. Sit down with a cup of coffee or hot chocolate, and talk about life. And baseball. Or whatever it is you have in common.
Card box in hand or not. Doesn't matter.
Not every rip needs to be an investment. And not every card needs to be worth something.
Your investment is your time.
Sometimes the best thing you pull out of a box isn't a card at all. And I think that's exactly what Topps Holiday is supposed to be.
That's the hit, brother.
Part 8: The Print Runs
Numbered paper parallel structure is a bit weird and looks like this:
Mega:
Purple Glitter /99
Metallic Gingerbread Man /50
25th /25
Metallic Candy Cane /25
Red Metallic /10
Metallic Stocking /10
Menorah /8
Green Glitter /5
Golden Glitter /1
Tins:
Purple Holiday Lights /99
Red Metallic Holiday Lights /10
Green Holiday Lights /5
Golden Metallic Holiday Lights /1
Base Card Production:
~472,130 ea
Chrome Base:
~1,910 ea
Unnumbered Parallels:
Glitter Holiday (Mega only)- ~14,295 ea
Blue Glitter Holiday (Mega only)- ~2,860 ea
Light Blue & White Glitter Holiday (Mega & Tin only)- ~4,515 ea
Snow Days- ~330 ea
Base Holiday Lights (Tins only)- ~13,250 ea
Blue Metallic Holiday Lights (Tins only)- ~6,625 ea
Base Plaid (Advent only)- ~17,455 ea
Base Stickers (Advent only)- ~1,455 ea
Holiday Variation SP (25 card CL)- ~51,740 ea
Holiday Variation Backs SP (25 card CL)- ~51,740 ea
Holiday Variation SSP (25 card CL, Mega & Tins only)- ~666 ea
Holiday Variation Backs SSP (25 card CL, Mega & Tins only)- ~666 ea
Hidden Elf (25 card CL, Mega & Tins only)- ~2,620 ea
Chrome Plaid Refractor (Advent only)- ~1,250 ea
Base Chrome Refractors (Mega only)- ~100 ea (may or may not be numbered)
Base Sparkle Refractors (Mega only)- ~50 ea (may or may not be numbered)
Unnumbered Inserts:
Oversized Die Cut Ornament (20 card CL, Mega only)- ~28,590 ea
Die Cut Ornament (20 card CL, Tins only)- ~11,040 ea
Making the Nice List (25 card CL, Advent only)- ~107,415 ea
Unnumbered Autos:
Base Autos (no checklist out, but based on odds looks to be about 104 subjects deep)- ~55 ea
Holiday Relics Autos (45 card CL) should be numbered /5.
Holiday Faux Relics Autos (5 card CL)- should be numbered /25.
Unnumbered Relics:
Base Holiday Relics (45 card CL)- ~35 ea
Faux Relics (5 card CL)- ~12 ea
Glitter Holiday Relics (45 card CL)- ~12 ea
#thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2026ToppsHolidayMLB
Took a little time earlier to check out some of the new 2026 Panini Prizm Preferred baseball boxes.
Full case rip is live for anyone that has too many hours in their day.
youtu.be/tqgxwojxaHM?is=mlpz…
Weird that Topps Chrome x Jennie is a 5-box case, yet Topps ships 10 loose boxes. I guess there are no "case hits", so it shouldn't really matter. But it's an esthetics thing.
Looks like Topps landed on a formula to allow a large percentage of EQL submitters to "win" their draw.
2 box max, price the product 50% too high, and make it the most highly printed Chrome product ever. OK, just guessing on that last one. But I bet it's not far off. I hope to be able to calculate it soon.
#2026ToppsChromeNFL
2026 Topps Garbage Pail Kids Halloween
Currently waiting on odds for all the good stuff, but these prices just dropped and odds have been out for a minute, so here's a quick breakdown for those interested in ghoulish Halloween kiddos.
Drop date Thursday 10/22 at 11am CT via EQL
Drop price: $75/box
Configuration: 3 packs of 8 cards
Keep in mind, this is fully the Garbage Pail Kids universe. There is no sports crossover with this one. Which is probably why the release is extremely limited. EQL seems a bit odd, but maybe because production is tight.
Total cards in product:
162,000
Total boxes produced:
Hobby- 6,000 (600 cases)
Hit Rates (assuming cases are 10 boxes as they were for GPK Valentine's):
Autos- 1 per 6 boxes
1/1 Sketches- 1 per 4 boxes
Auto + Sketch- 1 per 2.4 boxes (~4.2/case)
Parallels- 1.3/box
Inserts- 1.35/box
Numbered cards- 0.75/box
Value metrics:
$/card- $3.13
$/parallel- $58.54
$/auto or sketch- $180.00
$/# card- $98.88
$/quality hit- $51.80
I really have no guidance for this one. So hopefully you're able to glean what you need to from the numbers themselves. I did notice GPK Valentine's boxes are currently selling for $125-$150, so maybe there is some upside potential here.
Print Runs:
Base card production:
~2,875 ea
Unnumbered parallels:
Wrapper Rainbow Foil (25 card CL)- ~65 ea
Artwork Variations (10 card CL)- ~150 ea
Unnumbered Inserts:
C Names (25 card CL)- ~240 ea
Scream Queens (10 card CL)- ~200 ea
Final Artwork Redemption- no data on this subset, but there are only ~25 total cards in the product so I'm assuming a 25 card checklist of 1/1s
Autos/Sketches:
Artist Autos (10 card CL)- ~100 ea
Sketch Cards (53 card CL)- all 1/1, but looks like ~28 from each artist, 1500 total sketches throughout the product
#thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2026GarbagePailKidsHalloween
Quite a week this week.
Here's what stands out to me:
1) Pro Debut @ $140. +$30 over last year. Bummer but not unexpected. Still a buy for me.
2) Topps Chrome NFL $440/Hobby 🤢
3) Heritage NFL $140/Hobby.
For NFL folks that came over with Topps licensing, if you want to give this one a shot, you'll want to make sure to get in early. This will likely shoot up to $200+ and in no way will it be worth it. This is dryer than Flagship. Less autos, less numbered cards.
4) Disney Vault $1200 for 2 cards.
Marvel Vault was $680 for 2 cards (1 auto), which was wild but upon close inspection was not as terrible as it sounded. Disney said "Hold my beer".
5) Garbage Pail Kids Halloween is EQL. Sounds wild, but there are only 6,000 boxes produced. So maybe I get it?
6) For fun rips, it's hard to beat the Holiday issues at $30/mega. In the past, the other formats were not good, so you'll probably want to stick to Megas unless you have a little one doing the Advent Calendar thing the way it's supposed to be done.
Don't expect huge value from Holiday in general. But it's hard to find a better $30 rip. And you will be able to get them. They make a lot of it.
7) If you're into WWE, Stadium Club will be a fun rip with not terrible value. And Megas are actually solid for this release. Since we've had odds for a while, I broke that down here:
xitter.cf/WaxMetrix/status/21086…
⏰ RELEASING THIS WEEK ⏰
2026 Topps Pro Debut Baseball - Pre-Order ⚾️
Mon. 10/19 - 12 PM EST
Hobby Box: $139.99
6 packs per box, 24 cards per pack
4 autographs per box
2026 Topps Chrome Football - Pre-Order 🏈
Mon. 10/19 - 1 PM EST - EQL release
Hobby Box: $439.99
20 packs per box, 4 cards per pack
1 autograph per box
2026 Topps Holiday Baseball ⚾️🎄
Wed. 10/21 - 12 PM EST
Mega Box: $29.99
10 packs per box, 10 cards per pack
1 autograph, relic or Chrome base card per box
2026 Topps Heritage Football 🏈
Wed. 10/21 - 1 PM EST
Hobby Box: $139.99
20 packs per box, 8 cards per pack
1 autograph or relic card per box
2026 Topps Disney Vault 🏰
Wed. 10/21 - 2 PM EST - EQL release
Hobby Box: $1,199.99
2 packs per box, 1 card per pack
1 autograph or autograph-relic per box
2026 Garbage Pail Kids Halloween 🎃👻
Thurs. 10/22 - 12 PM EST - EQL release
Hobby Box: $74.99
3 packs per box, 8 cards per pack
Look for sketch cards, artist autographs and more
2026 Topps Holiday Football 🏈
Fri. 10/23 - 12 PM EST
Mega Box: $29.99
10 packs per box, 10 cards per pack
Look for base holiday variation short prints
2026 Topps Stadium Club WWE 🤼🏟️
Fri. 10/23 - 1 PM EST
Hobby Box: $139.99
16 packs per box, 8 cards per pack
2 autographs per box
Condensed Clean-Up Analysis:
2026 Triumphant Tennis
2026 Royalty Premier League
2025/26 Definitive NBA
I'm not going to go into much depth on these. Small releases where nearly everything is numbered just don't require much in the way of analysis. But they're clogging up my desktop. And in the spirit of breaking down every release for which Topps drops odds, I'm going to do a rapid-fire breakdown for anyone interested.
First, 2026 Triumphant Tennis.
Product went up for pre-order on September 18th in preparation for a November 17th drop. Not sure if there was some sort of delay, but we've seen a few of these 2 month lags lately between pre-orders and drop. Not sure if I care for that trend.
Hobby is the only format and pre-sales were priced at $170/box. Interestingly, last year's Triumphant Tennis dropped at $225/box. You can still find them for that price, and even less if you go the ebay route. For this reason, I wouldn't expect prices to spike on 2026 Triumphant. Although the market is weird lately, so who knows.
Boxes contain 1 pack of 5 cards with every card being numbered /99 or less. Therefore, no print run data will be necessary.
Topps states 3 autos/box. It appears that the other two cards will be one base /99 and one parallel /50 or less.
The entire product consists of numbered base parallels and Autos. No inserts possible.
Total cards in the product:
29,500
Total boxes produced:
5,900 (590 cases)
Value Metrics based on pre-order price of $170/box:
$/card- $34.00
$/Auto- $56.67
$/Parallel- $170.00
$/Quality Hit- $47.84
Takeaways:
With the prices of major sports spiralling out of control, Tennis releases have been sneaky values as of late, and it feels like more folks are migrating toward them.
At $170/box for 3 autos and nothing numbered over 99, this seems like a solid deal. I haven't scoured the checklist, but it seems the Tennis checklists don't vary greatly. Quality Hits at $47.84 ea is pretty great, but also what you would expect from a Tennis release.
This does not have the upside potential of Royalty Tennis, which I recently covered, but there is less of this produced. And the price point for Royalty is 3.5x that of Triumphant- for only 2x the Autos. This should be a worthwhile alternative if you don't care to spend $580+ on a box of Tennis product.
2026 Royalty Premier League
Drop date: September 24th
Hobby format only with drop price of $1,000/box.
Current market price- ~$3,600/box.
Boxes contain 1 packs of 10 cards with the following dynamics:
6 Autos
2 Relics
1 Numbered Parallel
1 Base card /60
Total cards in the product:
53,000
Total boxes produced:
5,300 (1,325 cases)
Value Metrics based on current market of $3,600/box
$/card- $360
$/parallel- $3600
$/auto- $600
$/relic- $1800
$/quality hit- $360
Of note, by definition, every card in the product is a "Quality Hit". All base are /60 and there are no autos numbered greater than /99.
There is a Rare Inserts chase in Royalty, the ultra elusive Liquid Silver & Liquid Gold. If you've never seen one in hand, they look amazing.
At current market pricing the $/Rare Insert works out to $191,483.87. The Liquid Silvers are the only card in the product that aren't numbered. Though their print run is a paltry ~19 copies ea.
Takeaways:
I am a fan of Royalty, which is the closest thing Topps has to Panini's National Treasures. I hope we see Royalty baseball soon.
For Premier League, I love it at drop pricing, and obviously the market agreed. Of course, I can't get on board at secondary market pricing. There will be some huge high-end hits in here. but it may be tricky to recoup the $3600 it takes to procure a box.
2025/26 Definitive NBA
Drop date: September 17th
Hobby & First Day Issue formats only:
Hobby drop price- $8,000
FDI Dutch Auction closed at $14,750.
Hobby Box Current Market Price- $14,750.
Boxes consist of 1 pack of 8 cards with the following dynamics:
6 Autos
2 Non-Auto Relics
Of the 6 autos, it appears there will be 2-3 Relic Autos per box, with FDI having 1 extra.
Every card in the product is either an Auto, Relic Auto, or Non-Auto Relic. There are no base, base parallels, or inserts in Definitive. Every card is also numbered, so there will be no print run data necessary.
Total cards in the product:
49,872
Total boxes produced:
Hobby- 6,030 (3,015 2-box cases)
FDI- 204 boxes (102 cases)
Value metrics based on current market of $14,750/Hobby box.
$/card- $1,475.00
$/auto- $2,458.33
$/relic auto- $6,220.57
$/quality hit- $1,779.68
Takeaways:
As expected, Definitive breaks all value metrics. This is the highest-end of Topps high-end basketball products. If you're buying and ripping this, you laugh at value metrics. Those are for plebs.
Soon, I'm expecting some odds for some huge upcoming releases (Flagship NBA, Heritage NFL, Holiday MLB & NFL). With those, I should be able to offer a little more from a substantive data perspective.
Happy Hobbying.
#thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2026TriumphantTennis #2026RoyaltyPremierLeague #2025DefinitiveBasketball
If you're selling on ebay and shipping like this, you might want to re-think your strategies. Raw-dogging in an envelope ain't the way.
And charging $5 while paying $.53 to ship isn't going to be racking you up many positive feedbacks.
2026 Topps Chrome Formula 1 Deep Dive
I think I’ve had more requests for this one than any release in recent memory. I have been tied up with Japanese Samurai today, but even without that, odds dropped just a bit before the product went live. So proper analysis wasn’t coming before drop either way.
Though I feel wholly unqualified to gauge actual value of an F1 product, I’m very aware that, even at $1K/Hobby Box, 2026 F1 Chrome is still far behind 2025 F1 Chrome pricing, which currently sits at ~$1450/box if you can find it. And that’s with an auto every two boxes.
The F1 market is wild, man.
So I guess the relevant question is...is any of this worth it?
Is it worth snagging a Hobby from eBay since it’s only at $750-$800 and Big Bully Resellers are already at $1k?
What about retail? It’s also hard to get, but doable. Is it worth paying $35 for a Value Box or $70 for a Mega?
I think I can help answer those questions. Maybe even a few more. So let’s ride.
Welcome to 2026 Topps Chrome Formula 1.
Part 1: The Rundown
The formats I will focus on are Hobby, Value Boxes, and the new to F1 Chrome, Megas.
Hobby boxes have 20 packs of 4 cards- drop price $480/box
Value boxes have 7 packs of 4 cards- retail price $35/box
Megas have 6 packs of 7 cards- retail price $70/box
There are some additional formats:
•a First Day Issue SKU which ended at $1600 via Dutch Auction. But the value metrics of that won’t be in the same area code.
•an upcoming Sapphire release which will be exorbitantly expensive
•a Logofractor Edition, which if it’s anything like last year will only be available at the Fanatics flagship store in London
•an Asian market exclusive Hongbao Box which will likely feature 8 cards and zero overlap with American formats
Part 2: Production Numbers
Total cards in product:
14,765,680
2025 Topps Chrome F1- 11,845,868
YOY- +24.6%
Total Production by Format:
Hobby- 54,504 boxes (4,542 cases) -----> -23% YOY
First Day Issue- 1,050 boxes (88 cases)
Value- 194,440 boxes (4,861 cases) ----> -15.5% YOY
New Format:
Mega- 116,120 boxes (5,806 cases)
Part 3: Heat Map
Hit Rates per Box:
Hobby:
Autos- 1
Parallels- 13.25
Inserts- 12
Numbered Cards- 3
Value:
Autos- 1 per 77.5 boxes (1 per 1.94 cases)
Parallels- 5.8
Inserts- 5.1
Numbered Cards- 1 per 1.4 boxes
Mega:
Autos- 1 per 19.4 boxes (1 per case)
Parallels- 9.2
Inserts- 6.3
Numbered Cards- 1.5
% of Numbered Autos by Format:
Mega- 100%
Value- 82.23%
Hobby- 81.95%
Rare Inserts:
Rare Inserts in this product include-
Abu Dhabi At Night (Hobby only)
Art Du Grand Prix (Value & Mega only)
Anime
Futuro
Genesis
Helix
Helmet Collection Image Variations
The Grail
The Grid (Hobby only)
I do want to mention the Retail exclusive Art Du Grand Prix: though technically a rare insert by definition as they fall 1 per case of Value & Mega boxes, the short checklist keeps the Print Runs over 2,000 copies ea, more than most people want to see from a “Rare Insert”.
Rare Insert Hit Rates by Format:
Hobby- 1 per 7.21 boxes (1.66/case)
Value- 1 per 26.28 boxes (1.52/case)
Mega- 1 per 13.28 boxes (1.51/case)
It’s important to note, if you filter out the ubiquitous 1-per-case Art Du Grand Prix from the retail numbers and focus instead on the more desirable examples, you are left with a Rare Insert pull rate of 0.52 from Value & 0.51 from Megas...essentially 1 every other case.
Part 4: Value Map
Based on drop price of $480/Hobby and Retail price of $35/Value & $70/Mega. Just for fun, I’ll go ahead and add another entry for Hobby at current market of $785/box to see where it lands. Just be wary of buying any boxes from ebay. Overall, I suspect your chances of pulling one of the coveted Rare Inserts will be a little less from ebay boxes in general.
$/Card:
1) Value- $1.25
2) Mega- $1.67
3) Hobby (drop)- $6.00
4) Hobby (market)- $9.81
$/Parallel:
1) Value- $6.07
2) Mega- $7.62
3) Hobby (drop)- $36.28
4) Hobby (market)- $59.33
$/Auto:
1) Hobby (drop)- $466.02
2) Hobby (market)- $762.14
3) Mega- $1,359.40
4) Value- $2,711.80
$/# Card:
1) Mega- $46.67
2) Value- $50.40
3) Hobby (drop)- $160.00
4) Hobby (market)- $261.67
$/Rare Insert:
1) Value- $919.80
2) Mega- $929.60
3) Hobby (drop)- $3,460.80
4) Hobby (market)- $5,659.85
$/Quality Hit:
1) Value- $113.75
2) Mega-$122.50
3) Hobby (drop)- $302.40
4) Hobby (market)- $494.55
Part 5: Experiment Time
I like to do this from time to time, and I think this product is ripe for it. Let’s compare some rips at fairly equal spend. We did this for F1 Chrome last year and the results were rather eye-opening.
Let’s say you’re trying to decide between an entire case of either Value or Mega boxes to rip, (assuming you can even find case quantity at retail). Or a similar expenditure on Hobby Boxes.
I understand it may be a little lofty to expect to find even Values or Megas at retail anywhere near case quantity. But no one ever claimed this game is easy.
Hobby- 2 boxes- $785 ea ($1570 total)
Value- 1 case- $35 ea ($1400 total)
Mega- 1 case- $70 ea ($1400 total)
Expected Results:
Hobby (2 boxes):
Autos- 2
Parallels- 26.5
Inserts- 24
Numbered Cards- 6
Chance of a Rare Insert- 27.7%
Value (40 boxes):
Autos- 51.6% chance at 1
Parallels- 230.8
Inserts- 204.8
Numbered Cards- 27.8
Rare Inserts- 1.52 (1 Art Du Grand Prix, 52% chance at another)
Mega (20 boxes):
Autos- 1
Parallels- 183.8
Inserts- 125.4
Numbered Cards- 30
Rare Inserts- 1.51 (1 Art Du Grand Prix, 51% chance at another)
Part 6: What Would the Squatch Do?
I’m not trying to turn anyone away from Hobby boxes. They actually seem legit. And an auto per box this year should do wonders for value since the pull rate was half of that last year. Autos are the strongest case for Hobby with this release.
On a side note, does 100 auto subjects seem a bit excessive for an F1 release? I didn’t realize there were that many folks in all of F1. I understand there’s also F2, F3, etc. etc. There were only 66 signers in the main auto subset last year. So I’m guessing there are a fair amount of filler names included.
There is no denying Hobby boxes have mountains of upside- much more so than the retail formats. One lucky person will be pulling the only Debut Patch in the entire product from Hobby...and I hear Arvid Lindblad is decent.
However, if you’re not trying to spend $800-$1k on a Hobby box, either Value Boxes or Megas should do just fine. There is plenty to like about them.
Just because they don’t have the absolute highest nuclear upside with no Rookie Debut Patch potential, there are still plenty of monsters in retail.
Value boxes have their own Raywave Rainbow. Megas have a “Checker Flag” Rainbow, which I suspect are just Chrome X-fractors pulling double duty.
Strangely, there is almost no overlap in Autos in the three formats. Aside from a small number of Base Autos in Value Boxes, both Values and Megas have their own numbered auto parallels, most of which are /25 or less. Every single Auto pulled from Megas should be numbered.
Some of the biggest Rare Inserts in the product are also pullable from retail formats. This includes Anime, Helix, Genesis, and The Grail. Not only are they in there, but retail SKUs are the cheapest way to pull all of them.
Don’t sleep on retail with this F1 release. Those $ Per Quality Hit numbers of $113.75/Value & $122.50/Mega are JUICY. And miles better than Hobby boxes even at drop price.
For all these reasons, I’ll be trying my best to find some Value or Mega boxes at retail price. I’d love to snag a case or two. I’m fine with either as the numbers are basically interchangeable. Honestly, I probably prefer Megas for the better Auto & Numbered Card pull rates.
Funny story, last year F1 Chrome Value Boxes were pretty solid too. I gave them the Squatch seal of approval and was actually able to acquire a full case of them from one of my honey holes.
I sat on them for a while, eventually deciding to sell, and didn’t do terribly. Pretty sure I unloaded them at something like $60/ea.
Any idea what a case goes for now? Oh...only about $10k, or ~$250/box. Of course, that checklist had a rookie by the name of Kimi Antonelli who I hear is not bad. But the auto pull rate from Value Boxes last year was abysmal at 1 in 105 boxes. From a dynamics perspective, 2026 is better. Though from a checklist perspective maybe not.
If you see these in public, they’re a buy. Especially retail SKUs. I don’t think Hobby is worth $800/box...but what do I know? I’m just a Neanderthal who writes about cards from his basement.
If you're still reading this, I have a feeling you'd like the content over on my Substack. I have a metric ton of these product breakdowns of all Topps products imaginable. You should check it out:
slabsquatch.substack.com/p/2…
Part 7: Print Runs
By the way...I have a question I’m hoping one of you F1 folks can answer for me:
What is the significance of the number “22” when it comes to F1?
A ton of the insert sets have 22 card checklists and there’s an odd “Grid Refractor” numbered /22. Please enlighten me if you know. It would be much appreciated.
Base Card Production:
~46,915 ea
Unnumbered Parallels:
Refractors- ~4,715 ea
Ray Wave (Value only)- ~3,405 ea
Prism (Hobby only)- ~1,110 ea
Checker Flag (Mega only)- ~3,485 ea
Unnumbered Inserts:
Austin to Mexico City (22 card CL)- ~16,460 ea
Dancing in the Rain (22 card CL)- ~16,460 ea
Helmet Collection (22 card CL)- ~16,460 ea
Home Straight (25 card CL, Value & Mega only)- ~12,420 ea
Speed Wheels (22 card CL)- ~16,460 ea
Suit Up (25 card CL, Value & Mega only)- ~12,420 ea
Women of the Paddock (11 card CL)- ~18,600 ea
Rare Inserts:
Abu Dhabi at Night (22 card CL, Hobby & FDI only)- ~26 ea
Art Du Grand Prix (5 card CL, Value & Mega only)- ~2,135 ea
Anime (9 card CL)- ~195 ea
Futuro (4 card CL)- ~845 ea
Genesis (10 card CL)- ~340 ea
Helix (22 card CL)- ~100 ea
Helmet Collection Image Variations (10 card CL)- ~100 ea
The Grail G-1 (Lando Norris)- ~35 ea
The Grail G-4 (Max Verstappen)- ~50 ea
The Grail G-7 (Oscar Piastri)- ~60 ea
The Grid (19 card CL, Hobby & FDI only)- ~25 ea
Unnumbered Autos:
Base Chrome Autos (100 card CL)- ~105 ea
#thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2026ToppsChromeF1
2026 Topps Team Samurai Japan
OK, here we go. I've wrestled with this tiny odds sheet more than would ever be necessary if Topps didn't have such a problem with execution.
It's baffling. They can take monumental tasks, like Debut Patches, and make them work fairly smoothly. But when it comes to producing a tidy little Japanese money grab, they fumble the rock 3 or 4 times on the way to the end zone.
I have the numbers figured out...basically. But I still have a problem. Or actually, Topps still has a problem. I just don't know if anyone would know about it without a good and proper deep dive into the numbers they provide.
Welcome to 2026 Topps Team Samurai Japan. Round 2.
Part 1: What's Going On?
If you've been on hobby Twitter today, you've probably seen an email Topps sent to everyone who ordered this product. They admitted the odds they dropped were wrong.
🙋 Called that one. Although it wasn't at all tough to see.
They are now giving buyers a window in which to request a refund due to their odds being butchered. It's not going to surprise a single soul when I say you probably don't want to do this. Or if you do, just sell your boxes to me and I'll give you 10% more than you paid.😁
However, this doesn't mean things are kosher. And I'm pretty sure I know why they're offering to let people out of their purchase. Let's just say...things may not be as they claimed.
If the odds turned out better than what was stated, does anyone think they'd go out of their way to offer any refunds? Possibly, I suppose. Anyone backing out of paying pre-order pricing for the product gives Topps more boxes to sell at market pricing when that time comes. We all know that will not be anywhere near the original $150/box.
But I think Topps is giving that option because the odds are worse than they stated. And noticeably so.
Let's back up a bit.
Part 2: The Rundown
Boxes and packs originally dropped for pre-order almost 2 full months ago, on August 26th.
Collector's Boxes contain 4 packs of 7 cards and were priced at $150.
Packs also contain 7 cards and were priced at $40 each.
One pivotal part of this fiasco is the Hit Rates claimed by Topps at the time of pre-orders:
Boxes will produce 1 auto every 10 boxes.
Packs will produce 1 auto every 100 packs.
Now put that in your back pocket. We'll come back to it.
Keep in mind there are some massive Autos in this, including a 1/1 Dual with Ohtani and Sadaharu Oh.
I addressed all the ways in which Round 1 of odds was wrong in my original write-up, which is quoted. So I won't get into that here. There's plenty going on with Round 2, so that's what I'll focus on.
Part 3: Production Numbers
Total cards in the product:
973,000
That much, at least, I'm very confident in.
Here's where it starts to get a little weird.
Based on the odds Topps provided, production by format should look like this:
Collector's Boxes- 54,000 packs (13,500 boxes)
Loose Packs- 85,000
Total Pack count- 139,000
Total pack count is solid either way. But I sure would have assumed Topps would have put a majority of this product in the Collector's Boxes. That's just not what the numbers say.
Which leads me to my first "What if...".
It's possible Topps Spreadsheet guy labeled the formats wrong. And there are two reasons why this could be the case.
1) It's just weird to have more Loose Pack production than Collector's Boxes. But definitely possible.
2) Odds are very similar across the board. But there is just enough difference to allow me to calculate the pack production for each with confidence.
However, there are 27 different odds that have some variance. Of those, 15 are showing better in favor of Loose Packs. Which is also weird. Any Topps connoisseur might assume that, if anything, Collector's Boxes should offer slightly better odds than loose-ass packs. But that is also conjecture.
That said, these don't make a huge difference in the product itself. They either produced more loose packs than boxes, or they didn't. It doesn't really matter that much. But I'm pretty confident that one format has 54k packs and the other has 85k packs produced.
But let me tell you what DOES make a difference...
Part 4: Heat Map
Remember how Topps stated 1 auto per 10 boxes & 1 auto per 100 packs?
About that...their odds absolutely do not agree.
If we're taking them at face value, here's what the odds say about Hit Rates:
Collector's Box:
1 Auto per 15.67 boxes
3 Parallels/box (I'm including Short Prints as Parallels, not inserts)
1 Insert/box
2 Numbered Cards/box
Loose Packs:
1 Auto per 62.5 packs
0.73 Parallels/pack
0.27 Inserts/pack
0.5 Numbered cards/pack
Most of this matches up with everything Topps has said about the product.
According to Topps, Packs should produce 1 SP, Parallel, or Insert. The odds agree.
Basically, half the packs should produce a numbered parallel, 1/4th should produce an unnumbered parallel, and 1/4th should produce an insert. We're good there.
Topps also said Collector's boxes should produce 2 numbered cards. To take that further, of the 4 packs in a Collector's box, 3 should produce a parallel (2 of them numbered), and the other should contain an insert. Very logical. We're good there.
Rare Inserts:
Rare Inserts in this product include Tokyo Neon Nights & Samurai Spirit. I have to say, both look pretty sweet. Though I would love to have seen Sensational Samurai as a Rare Insert, which I believe are the best looking insert in the product.
Rare Insert Hit Rates:
Collector's Box- 1 in 37.2 packs (1 in 9.3 boxes)
Loose Packs- 1 in 37.2 packs
Part 5: But what is up with these autos?
1 per almost 16 Collector's Boxes is significantly worse than the 1:10 that Topps stated.
And weirdly, 1 per 62.5 Loose packs is quite a bit better than they stated.
A quick glance at the odds will clearly tell you that huge Auto pull rate discrepancy that Topps stated (1:40 packs in boxes vs. 1:100 loose packs) just does not exist. The Auto odds are very nearly identical. Meaning, regardless of the format you buy, your odds to pull an auto are very close to 1 in 62.5 packs.
Realistically, this is a huge win for those who procured individual packs on pre-order, and a pretty significant loss for those who secured boxes. Even though the rates are technically very similar, just not what we were told.
Part 6: What If... #2
One more thing I have to point out, because I'm weird like that and I like to try and figure where exactly "Topps guy" went astray.
Now, I don't know exactly where the mistake was made during this fiasco. Obviously there were several. I mean, we basically received Round 1 of odds on a product that didn't exist. But whatever. At least there are attempts being made to correct that.
However, I find it uncanny that if you look at the total number of Autos seeded into 85k loose packs, you'll see there are ~1,360 of them.
Hm. Weird. Remember how many Collector's Boxes we're showing as being produced? 13,500.
So if someone mathed the wrong column and divided those out....literally 1 in 10 boxes. Except that's the loose packs column. Not boxes.
Furthermore, based on the odds, the total number of Autos contained in 13,500 Collector's Boxes comes out to ~860.
Remember how many Loose Packs we're showing as being produced? 85,000.
If said someone also divided those out to...I don't know...post a stated hit rate or something...1 in 98.8 packs. Which is pretty damn close to 1 in 100. Except that's the Collector's Boxes column. Not loose packs.
OK, we're deep in the weeds here. Let me rein this back in and finish up.
Basically, all this to say, I don't know if Topps guy transposed a couple cells on a spreadsheet, or something more involved. But their odds and numbers agree on pretty much everything except the Auto Hit Rate, which coincidentally fit nicely when transposed.
Part 7: Value Map
Pricing based on Pre-order pricing of $150/Collector's Box & $40/Loose Pack.
$/Card:
1) Collector's Box- $5.36
2) Packs- $5.71
$/Parallel:
1) Coll Box- $50.00
2) Packs- $54.95
$/Auto:
1) Coll Box- $2,350.50
2) Packs- $2,500.00
$/# Card:
1) Coll Box- $75.00
2) Packs- $78.43
$/Rare Insert:
1) Coll Box- $1,395.38
2) Packs- $1,489.20
$/Quality Hit:
1) Coll Box- $217.35
2) Packs- $231.76
Part 8: What Would the Squatch Do?
If you were lucky enough to actually order boxes, don't freak out. You're fine. Collector's Boxes are still the best by a slim margin. But only because boxes are $37.50/pack vs $40 for loose packs.
Either way, both of these formats are nearly identical and both will spike significantly in price.
Should you cancel your order? LOL. Did anyone really even entertain that? But if you are annoyed by yet another instance of Topps shenanigans or incompetence (not quite sure which one applies here), feel free to hit me up. If you want to make an easy 10% ROI on your purchase, I got chu fam.
Such a long write-up for such a short release. My bad...we had a lot to unpack here.
Part 9: Print Runs
Base card production:
~11,260 ea
I also have Print Runs for all unnumbered parallels and inserts. But they're going on the Substack. This thing is long enough already. Here's a link:
slabsquatch.substack.com/p/2…
#thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2026ToppsTeamSamuraiJapan
2026 Topps Chrome Team Samurai Japan Analysis...or Lack Thereof
This one will be short and sweet.
You're on your own.
The end.
OK, maybe you deserve a little explanation. The Squatch tries to be an equitable fella. And I'd sure love to help you out on this one. But for reasons only Topps knows, that just won't be possible.
You might think that what is sure to be a super-limited product with a super tidy odds sheet would be an easy slam dunk from an odds calculation perspective.
And...you'd be wrong.
Topps just can't get out of their own way and botched another one. Literally a 40-line odds sheet. About as simple as it gets. All wrong.
If you scored this one EQL, the Collector Box specifically, suffice it to say you did well. The Squatch and the Mrs went 0 for 2.
If there is a saving grace here, it's that Topps was totally transparent about what to expect from the boxes before the product dropped.
Box price: $150
4 packs of 7 cards per box.
2 Numbered Parallels, 1 Insert.
Autos fall 1:10 boxes.
Also available on a per-pack bases from Topps direct for a few minutes, though the packs seem to be far less loaded with hits than the boxes. They are not simply packs from the same boxes as stated Auto pull rate from packs is 1:100 packs.
Checklist is out...and full of Japanese players you've probably never heard of. And some you have.
Cards look sick. And there will be some verifiable nukes come from this product- Autos of Ohtani, Ichiro, Roki, Yamamoto, Murakami, all with low numbered versions. There's even a Dual Generational Greats Auto of Ohtani and Japanese legend Sadaharu Oh.
Seems like a fantastic product. Would be nice to put some numbers behind it.
Here's the actual problem:
Odds guy must have come to work hungover again. In no way do the odds match what the actual product looks like.
For starters, aside from Sensational Samurai, none of the Insert sets match what's on the checklist.
According to the official checklist, the remaining inserts sets are Generational Greats, Neon Nights, & Samurai Spirit. Yet somehow on the odds sheet we have Samurai Sluggers, Samurai Strikers, & Championship Memories. The checklist sizes don't even match up, so it's not simply a case of changing the Insert names at the last minute and not letting the odds sheet guy know.
If I go with the stated odds, then the math says there would be something like 150k boxes produced, which I highly doubt is accurate.
Additionally, with the long Auto odds, this would put the Auto pull rate at 1:312 boxes. Topps already said it's 1:10.
So I am forced to just assume that the odds guy and checklist guy were squabbling that day and the result is we all lose. Except those that won the EQL...you'll be fine.
If they happen to bestow some actual factual odds on us at some point, I'll happily break it down for you.
The Only Part You Need: What Would the Squatch Do?
As mentioned, the Squatch made an attempt...and took the obligatory EQLLLLLL.
I'm a little hesitant on the individual packs as they could be a little dry, but the boxes are an absolute no-brainer at $150. There's no doubt they will go for considerably more after launch.
I love niche little products like this, even if it's essentially an Ohtani money grab. But a 2-box limit or something would be nice so us plebs can actually get some. But hey, at least I have some cases of Chrome Jennie coming in a couple months.
SamuraiSquatch out.
Print Runs:
Sorry. No can do.
#thehobby #SamuraiSquatchAnalytics #2026ToppsChromeTeamSamuraiJapan
It warms my heart to see all the messages and tags I got about Topps pushing back shipment on Team Samurai boxes.
This seems like an appropriate re-post of what I had to say initially about it. Currently working on updated numbers. Just wanted to throw it out there that I kinda called this fiasco.
2026 Topps Chrome Team Samurai Japan Analysis...or Lack Thereof
This one will be short and sweet.
You're on your own.
The end.
OK, maybe you deserve a little explanation. The Squatch tries to be an equitable fella. And I'd sure love to help you out on this one. But for reasons only Topps knows, that just won't be possible.
You might think that what is sure to be a super-limited product with a super tidy odds sheet would be an easy slam dunk from an odds calculation perspective.
And...you'd be wrong.
Topps just can't get out of their own way and botched another one. Literally a 40-line odds sheet. About as simple as it gets. All wrong.
If you scored this one EQL, the Collector Box specifically, suffice it to say you did well. The Squatch and the Mrs went 0 for 2.
If there is a saving grace here, it's that Topps was totally transparent about what to expect from the boxes before the product dropped.
Box price: $150
4 packs of 7 cards per box.
2 Numbered Parallels, 1 Insert.
Autos fall 1:10 boxes.
Also available on a per-pack bases from Topps direct for a few minutes, though the packs seem to be far less loaded with hits than the boxes. They are not simply packs from the same boxes as stated Auto pull rate from packs is 1:100 packs.
Checklist is out...and full of Japanese players you've probably never heard of. And some you have.
Cards look sick. And there will be some verifiable nukes come from this product- Autos of Ohtani, Ichiro, Roki, Yamamoto, Murakami, all with low numbered versions. There's even a Dual Generational Greats Auto of Ohtani and Japanese legend Sadaharu Oh.
Seems like a fantastic product. Would be nice to put some numbers behind it.
Here's the actual problem:
Odds guy must have come to work hungover again. In no way do the odds match what the actual product looks like.
For starters, aside from Sensational Samurai, none of the Insert sets match what's on the checklist.
According to the official checklist, the remaining inserts sets are Generational Greats, Neon Nights, & Samurai Spirit. Yet somehow on the odds sheet we have Samurai Sluggers, Samurai Strikers, & Championship Memories. The checklist sizes don't even match up, so it's not simply a case of changing the Insert names at the last minute and not letting the odds sheet guy know.
If I go with the stated odds, then the math says there would be something like 150k boxes produced, which I highly doubt is accurate.
Additionally, with the long Auto odds, this would put the Auto pull rate at 1:312 boxes. Topps already said it's 1:10.
So I am forced to just assume that the odds guy and checklist guy were squabbling that day and the result is we all lose. Except those that won the EQL...you'll be fine.
If they happen to bestow some actual factual odds on us at some point, I'll happily break it down for you.
The Only Part You Need: What Would the Squatch Do?
As mentioned, the Squatch made an attempt...and took the obligatory EQLLLLLL.
I'm a little hesitant on the individual packs as they could be a little dry, but the boxes are an absolute no-brainer at $150. There's no doubt they will go for considerably more after launch.
I love niche little products like this, even if it's essentially an Ohtani money grab. But a 2-box limit or something would be nice so us plebs can actually get some. But hey, at least I have some cases of Chrome Jennie coming in a couple months.
SamuraiSquatch out.
Print Runs:
Sorry. No can do.
#thehobby #SamuraiSquatchAnalytics #2026ToppsChromeTeamSamuraiJapan