Western Mogollon Rim Weather

#WINTER OUTLOOK 2026–2027 Followers - Finally, it is here. The Winter outlook. If you have followed me, you know I do not expect or predict the current #elnino will behave like the typical blue print for an #elnino will. Most of the weather daddy's on X and the weather dweebs compare this #elnino year to years like 1877, 1997, 1982, 1992, 2015, etc. Again, not one of years atmospheric setup, mirrors 2026. None of them, as far as I can see. Therefore, here we go with my thoughts. If you, and you know who you are, don't want to read it, cut and paste it into your AI program to get an and quick summary. Ok....Let's get into it. There has been plenty of discussion about the developing #ElNino, but I am not convinced California is going to see a traditional El Niño winter. In fact, I think several competing atmospheric and oceanic signals could significantly interfere with the typical El Niño storm track, particularly for Southern California. Here is what I am watching and where I think things could go this winter. THE BIG PLAYERS: PV, SSW & -PDO The Polar Vortex (PV), potential Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events, and a continuing negative PDO (-PDO) are all factors I believe could complicate the El Niño signal. Rather than a consistent parade of storms tracking directly into Southern California, I am watching for a pattern that favors more frequent storm delivery into Northern California and the Pacific Northwest. The PV and potential disruptions to the stratospheric circulation could influence the placement of the jet stream, blocking patterns, and where storms ultimately track. Meanwhile, the -PDO adds another variable to the Pacific background state. The result? I think we could see a winter with some significant precipitation disparities across California. NORCAL & THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST I am leaning toward Northern California and the Pacific Northwest receiving a more favorable share of the storm activity this winter. This doesn't mean Southern California gets shut out. I REPEAT, THAT DOES NOT MEAN THAT #SOCAL WILL GET SHUT OUT. I absolutely expect some significant storms to make their way south. However, I think the storm track COULD favor NorCal and the #PNW more often than a textbook El Niño pattern would suggest. Something to watch. SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA: MY RAINFALL CALL For Downtown Los Angeles (#DTLA), I am currently looking at a seasonal rainfall range of: - 22–25 inches That would put us in a respectable rainfall season, but I don't expect continuous wet weather. I am looking for several significant storm systems, potentially producing some impressive rainfall totals, separated by periods of much quieter weather. I also expect periods of dry, warmer conditions and Santa Ana wind events. Don't be surprised if we go from watching major storm systems to dealing with offshore winds, sunshine, and elevated fire-weather concerns. That's Southern California weather. Feast and famine. THE SIERRA NEVADA: GOING OUT ON A LIMB Here is where I am taking a bigger gamble with my forecast. Above 8,000 feet: 500+ inches of seasonal snowfall. Below 8,000 feet: 350–400 inches of seasonal snowfall. I think the Sierra could have an impressive winter, particularly at higher elevations, even if the storm distribution isn't consistent throughout the season. There is plenty of room for some major individual storm cycles. But again, it is all about how much sustained cold air can come into play on the West Coast and into the Sierra. SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MOUNTAINS: BIG BEAR COULD GET A MUCH BETTER SECOND HALF OF WINTER I also want to talk about our local Southern California mountains, because I think the second half of winter could be particularly interesting. For Big Bear, Snow Summit, Bear Mountain, Snow Valley, and the surrounding San Bernardino Mountains, I am looking for a somewhat inconsistent start, with a much better opportunity for colder storm systems after the New Year. My expectation is that January, February, and potentially March will bring several colder storm cycles into Southern California. These won't necessarily be back-to-back storms. Instead, I am anticipating a pattern that alternates between warmer, drier periods and colder intrusions that bring opportunities for natural snowfall at the local resorts. When those colder systems line up with sufficient Pacific moisture, I think we could see some good snowfall opportunities for our local ski areas. I wouldn't write off Big Bear or the local ski season just because we have some warmer periods early in winter. I think the second half of the season could deliver some very nice snow opportunities. TEMPERATURES: DON'T EXPECT A CONSISTENTLY COLD WINTER One thing I want to emphasize is that precipitation and temperature forecasts are two different things. I am not necessarily expecting a consistently cold winter across the West. I anticipate periods of warmer-than-average temperatures, particularly between storm systems, with occasional colder intrusions when the jet stream shifts and allows colder air to move south. For Southern California, this could mean stretches of above-average temperatures, followed by significant cooling when storms move through. Add in Santa Ana wind events, and we could have quite a temperature roller coaster. THE NORTHEAST: WARMER PERIODS, BUT DON'T PUT AWAY THE SNOW SHOVELS! I also have an interesting outlook for the Northeast. I am leaning toward periods of above-average temperatures throughout the winter, potentially influenced by fluctuations in the Polar Vortex and the overall North American circulation. However, I am not writing off winter storms. In fact, I am watching for several opportunities for coastal Nor'easters to develop and track up the Eastern Seaboard, due to the southern jet stream connecting with the polar jet along the eastern seaborne. The right combination of blocking, cold-air availability, and coastal storm development could produce some significant snowfall events from the Mid-Atlantic into New England. I think the Northeast could experience a winter of contrasts: stretches of milder-than-average weather interrupted by a few legitimate winter storms that deliver some impressive snowfall. The timing and availability of cold air will be critical. A Nor'easter can be a major snow producer, but without sufficient cold air in place, precipitation can quickly change over to rain, particularly along the coast. MY OVERALL WINTER CALL - To Recap Here is where I stand heading into the 2026–2027 winter season: 🌧️ California: More favorable storm frequency in Northern California and the Pacific Northwest. 🌧️ DTLA: 22–25 inches of seasonal rainfall. San Francisco - 32" - 35" San Diego - 13"-16" ❄️ Sierra Nevada above 8K: 500+ inches of snowfall. ❄️ Sierra Nevada below 8K: 350–400 inches of snowfall. 🏔️ Southern California Mountains: Warmer and drier stretches early, followed by several colder storm opportunities after New Year's for Big Bear and surrounding local resorts. 🌡️ Southern California Temperatures: Periods of above-average warmth interrupted by colder storm systems and Santa Ana wind events. ❄️ Northeast: Periods of above-average temperatures, interrupted by several potentially significant coastal Nor'easters and snowfall events. I am not buying into the idea that El Niño automatically translates into a blockbuster Southern California winter. The ocean may be signaling El Niño, but the atmosphere gets the final vote. The PV, potential SSW events, and -PDO are all variables I will be watching closely. If these competing signals influence the jet stream the way I suspect, we could end up with a very different winter than the traditional El Niño playbook suggests. As always, seasonal forecasts are a work in progress. I'll be watching the stratosphere, Pacific SSTs, ensemble trends, and the evolution of the jet stream as we move through November and December. One thing I will say: Don't confuse an El Niño winter with a guaranteed wet winter for Southern California. They are NOT the same thing. What's your take? Does the atmosphere cooperate with El Niño, or do the PV, SSW and -PDO throw a wrench into the equation? Lets see how it plays out #RealWXForecast #WinterOutlook #ElNino #PolarVortex #SSW #PDO #CaliforniaWeather #SoCalWeather #NorCal #PacificNorthwest #SierraNevada #BigBear #SnowSummit #BearMountain #SnowValley #Snowfall #NorEaster #NortheastWeather #WeatherForecast #AtmosphericScience #cawx #socal #larain #nywx #sandiego These are my preliminary seasonal numbers, and there is plenty of time for the atmospheric pattern to evolve. I will be watching the stratosphere, Pacific SSTs, ensemble trends, and the evolution of the jet stream closely. One thing is certain: I think we could be in for an interesting winter, and I wouldn't be surprised to see some impressive Sierra snowfall numbers. What's your take? Are we looking at a traditional El Niño winter, or will the PV, SSW and -PDO throw a wrench into the forecast? #Weather #WinterOutlook #ElNino #PolarVortex #SSW #PDO #CaliforniaWeather #SoCalWeather #NorCal #PacificNorthwest #SierraNevada #Snowfall #DTLA #AtmosphericScience #WeatherForecast #RealWXForecast