Seemed to be appropriate 2am wake-up call MUSIC, and MORE pertinent NOW as the US election approaches, and I sit here writing the text that will come with a DEEP DIVE into the innards of the CPI report, which revealed broadening and ACCELERATING inflation, especially when combined with Import data with rising Prices for Finished Goods, which was ALSO see in the PPI data, showing a +7.4% yr-yr inflation in Consumer Goods for Final Demand !! Sio the simple math using R-Star (plus 50bp added to Powell's 2018 creation, for the pandemic effect) when we compare the 4% top-end FF Target Range, and 3.7% All-Items CPI inflation rate ... FOMC rate policy is, at best, NEUTRAL ... in fact, the "real" FF Rate using the bottom of the FOMC's target range is a whopping ... ... 0.05% Moreover, when you throw in "stealth QE", buying SHORT-TERM T-Bills from the Treasury, as Bessent moves to shorten duration ... Fed's Balance Sheet expanding again, NOTABLY SO ... as Warsh has talked-the-talk but is failing to walk-the-walk ... IF ... IF ... IF .. he is serious when he invokes Paul Volcker, the guy who jacked rates to as high as 20%, and KILLED inflation AND ... M-2 Money Supply is running HOT, at +5.7% year-year, with a med-term acceleration to +7.5% annualized !!!! MMMmmmm, a 4% FF rate is virtually NOTHING, compared to ANY other macro-monetary data point. NOTE, importantly note ... Paul Volcker had a Treasury with virtually ZERO "real" PUBLIC DEBT, now over $40 trillion. THEY KNOW what's coming next, it permeates their own data and surveys ... NEGATIVE "real" Wages, (-) 2.4% year-year for those at the lowest income levels, who are getting CRUSHED already, by inflation ... no real income gains (outside of stock, which is why they are doing this, to keep demand for credit from sending Bond yields and Credit Spreads (a 2008 "ghost") sky-rocketing. Credit Card debt MORE than "covers" Personal Savings, which sits at low levels, historically, versus Personal Disposable Income, which just posted DEFLATION when excluding "Transfer Payments", again revealing the rise in the number of people receiving entitlements (SS, Medicare) ... or ... who are increasingly "living off of the government (AKA the US taxpayer) "They" KNOW that they are facing what I have termed "The Ultimate Policy Conundrum" ... and will, in my view, be FORCED to acquiesce to higher general rates of inflation to protect Consumer final demand, lest we have sub-par growth rates that fail to allow DEBT SERVICING ... yes, the rat wheel is ALREADY SPINNING, and the Fed-Treasury appear to be giving us clear-cut "tells" that Warsh will talk-the-talk, but cannot walk-the-walk when it comes to DEFEATING INFLATION with Fed policy. #FOMC #FederalReserve #Inflation #Bonds #Debt #Savings #kevinwarsh #scottbessent @RATMofficial @BloombergTV @SullyCNBC @LizClaman @ClamanCountdown @PowerLunch @HalftimeReport @TheJudgeCNBC @lisaabramowicz1 @RomaineBostick @GuyJohnsonTV