Rob Hindle

Post last week's local elections, I have been asked by clients and colleagues what I think will happen next. Here is the answer - apologies in advance, it’s not a very uplifting take. Starmer is finished. The question is when Keir Starmer's position as Labour leader is now untenable. The country lost faith in him as Prime Minister just months into his tenure, after it was clear he would not deliver the change he promised - instead delivering more of the same and a series of u-turns. Many wonder why the public mood against him is so hostile, but this is fifteen years in the making. The public is fed up with the continual failures of politicians of all parties and now expect them to lie and fail - hence have a very short tolerance window. Despite the large majority, the public were never really voting for Starmer's Labour Party - they were voting to remove the Conservatives, Labour was simply the best vessel. After a few months in power, the public concluded this government would be "more of the same", and they have abandoned them en masse. People are screaming for change. That change isn't bringing back politicians from 30 years ago or rerunning the referendum fight - it's new people, new ideas, new direction. Instead, we will see Starmer cling on with another reset at the King's Speech, hoping he can make it to the summer recess and plan a relaunch at Conference. It is always hard to say when a Prime Minister will fall, but it is now a matter of "when", and most likely in the autumn (but could easily be sooner given his poor response so far). Labour will move left. That would be a mistake There is a belief within large factions of the party (activists, members, MPs) that the country wants an agenda based on progressive politics. With the rise of the Greens, and successes such as Mamdani's win in New York, it is easy to see how that becomes the consensus position during the leadership election (the best lie is the one they want to believe). However, a more aggressive left-wing agenda will likely backfire and push a large section of voters towards Reform - who I've felt for a while will win the next election, propped up by a reluctant Conservative Party. During our research into the drivers of current political opinion last month, the finding that really struck me was that only one-in-seven voters who have moved from traditional parties (Labour/Tory) to insurgent parties (Reform/Green) said they would go back, even if those insurgent parties failed them too. This is no longer a protest vote, we are witnessing the permanent abandonment of the major parties. The Conservatives are not in a crisis - they’re in something worse For the Tories, this is a disaster. I'm in the minority here, but I would argue Kemi has done a poor job so far and is getting an easy ride due to low expectations. Despite some positive sentiment for her and an improvement in her personal ratings, she is having no impact on changing the fortunes of the party (arguably the party is going backwards). Voters are no longer angry at the Conservatives, they simply don't care about them. The party is seen as the embodiment of a failed establishment in an era when people want change. Many will argue Kemi is doing as well as she can, given how badly the Tory brand is damaged. But when you dig into her performance, it is hard to identify what the leadership is actually doing to turn the party's fortunes around. The party abandoned the field for almost the first year of her premiership and allowed Nigel Farage to make Reform the unofficial opposition. This was because the new leadership wanted to conduct a policy review, but we are yet to see a serious policy platform emerge. But there is a deeper problem - what is the point of the Conservative Party, and can Kemi make it relevant? What is the moral story it is telling the public? I honestly couldn't tell you, and I follow politics closer than most. Why would the average voter think anything has changed within the Tory party, especially with so much of the cast the same? At a minimum, it is time for a reshuffle, and time to promote some of the upcoming talent - but it may be already too late and we could be witnessing the end of Tories as a national party. The big question coming down the tracks for Kemi is whether she would prop up a Reform government. Despite the risks, being blamed for any and all failures, it is impossible to see how she could turn down the offer to "unite the right" and allow a progressive alliance to govern Britain. She would never be forgiven, so would likely acquiesce. Reform has won the argument, but whether it can govern is another question For Reform, there is still a mountain to climb in order to win the next election, but they would be at the foot of an even bigger one should they win. It could be argued - and indeed has been, by some in the party - that Reform would be better being the official opposition after the next election, to give them the time to build an operation actually ready to govern but the political winds mean they may skip that stage and become the governing party. Reform has appointed an incredibly capable individual in Danny Kruger to lead its preparations for government - in a recent Charlesbye breakfast he laid out an agenda he hoped would be the right blend of radical and reassuring - but the scale of the task, even for the most talented, is vast and unenviable. And if they fail too? Voters have said they won't go back to Labour or the Tories. They will continue looking for a party that will deliver the change they have been calling for - but what does that look like? The Labour government (and many others in the establishment) will be looking at any and all options to block Farage becoming Prime Minister - which in themselves could have serious and unintended consequences. As a last throw of the dice, we could see the progressive alliance pushing for PR replacing the first-past-the-post system, a move that would allow all kinds of dangerous fringe elements into parliament (a quasi-marxist party, a Tommy Robinson vehicle etc) at a time when the political mood is febrile. The other divisive move would be rejoining the EU either wholeheartedly or by stealth. This would make sense for Labour figures trying to win any upcoming leadership battle - however it could backfire with the country at large. In our recent research we found that while voters agreed Brexit hasn’t been a success - they primarily blamed the politicians for the failure, did not want another referendum nor did they support the government using Henry VIII powers to rejoin. Support also drops dramatically when people consider the trade-offs of rejoining (freedom of movement, payments to the EU budget). A plan to go back in the EU may win Labour votes with its base but the final outcome would likely be helping Nigel Farage into No10. We hear a lot about the impact of Brexit but few talk about the causes - and how they are still driving politics today. The winners and losers of globalisation are still the dividing line of our politics. Those left behind wanted change. They still do. My worry is we are about to find out the hard way what happens to a political system that refuses to deliver it.