Looks like we’re getting something different this time into FOMC
Makes sense as there is nothing to fear into it, but like I said, lowers the chance we get some giga swing long out of it either
Closed for -38%
Made the comment on a BTC note, but will be interesting to watch SPY PA into FOMC this week
Past two instances we traded down for weeks into the event and marked a swing low the moment Warsh stopped talking
There is very little fear wrt FOMC this time around (understandably-so given market pricing), but if we do trade up into the event I think that just complicates the forward return picture from there given how textbook the past two have been
Made the comment on a BTC note, but will be interesting to watch SPY PA into FOMC this week
Past two instances we traded down for weeks into the event and marked a swing low the moment Warsh stopped talking
There is very little fear wrt FOMC this time around (understandably-so given market pricing), but if we do trade up into the event I think that just complicates the forward return picture from there given how textbook the past two have been
I’m still seeing quite a few comps to the prior consolidation on the TL
However, it’s my belief that the market showed its hand last week with that fakeout, indicating that it’s not going to be that simple
BTC made its attempt and it was met with idiosyncratic selling; we do have FOMC on Wednesday, and while we are certainly down into it, I’m not seeing much fear about the event in of itself unlike the prior two where we staged large rallies once the event cleared
Not trying to stick my neck out too much as we are down 10%, but this is my view until a daily close back above 81.6k or so, no use being bearish above there until ~90k
I got out of the Oct 30, Nov 6, and Nov 20 contracts around 79.5k this morning, partially because it’s rare for Ansem to be right on anything
Though I did take some of the proceeds and add to the Nov 30, and January positions
Definitely was paranoid about getting caught with super short term expiries on an Ansem flip though
Would assume bullish retest of weekly trend
Don’t think we can take the idea that this sequence is reset unless we lose the weekly
$LMT
Wild…
$IBKR
While I don’t believe half of the population has the frontal lobe to navigate IBKR’s UI and most people would rather incinerate their money on Tik Tok (Robinhood), it is worth paying attention to IBKR here
While I think retail volumes are at risk, I still think trading will remain prevalent as K-shaped economic outcomes continue, and short end rates remain elevated (+ NIM)
Not really here to opine about the fundamentals though as they don’t get me super excited at this juncture here given their valuation; more interested in the technical set-up:
Past 2.5 years we have 4 other instances of the 50week MA tested during this up-trend, all of which provided at least +50% in just over 3 months, ofc gets harder to believe as we march higher / market cycle progresses, but this area is a good spot to find out. Would imply ~ $120 sometime in Q1 2027.
Accepting under the 50week is the inval and would take the L.
- September 2027 $95 calls + Equity
First red arrow: Posted warning to start selling over the next two weeks
Second red arrow: End of the 2-week period
Thanks for playing
Haven’t commented on crypto today, been managing tradfi positions
IMO tradfi and crypto local moves (rallies) are in diffferent innings
We’re seeing breadth expansion today in crypto, while equities rally is still mega tech led (RSP is red, QQQ is +2.4%)
Contrary to popular belief, breadth expansions are more of a later stage process
While it’s constructive that BTC is solidly green today, you are getting random sh*tters outperforming hard while zec, near. lit, hype, ena are all unchanged or red… even VVV is giving back today’s impulse
Just think this means the *local* move is maturing, and my initial inclination is to go easy on the leverage— think today and into the next two weeks are for TP’ing some longs (no interest in shorting or completely sidelining myself in spot either)
fwiw ignore this altogether if you have a time horizon that extends to 2027
After staying in the private markets until their Series W, they are finally rushing to Democratize Finance and ensure everyone gets a slice
I will leave it to Gavin Baker to stroke himself off about each incremental 5B of ARR
80-100B is no joke, but I think it’s a sweet spot
My paranoia is telling me ANT is doing everything they can to fire on all cylinders into IPO and as more shares unlock it’s going to be coincidentally harder to get that incremental 5B as these numbers get larger and larger