Fellow for Latin America Studies @CFR_org. Book "Parallel Power" forthcoming. PhD @PUPolitics. Fulbright Colombia/Peru/Guatemala 2022. RTs ≠ Endorsements.
New York, NY
Joined May 2014
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This is the subject of my book, coming out next year, "Parallel Power."
The most powerful Mexican cartel is based in the state of Jalisco and Guadalajara, which has *plenty* of state presence.
The "absence of the state" is such an incredibly lazy way to think about this.
Much could still go wrong, but it's worth appreciating the case for optimism in Venezuela -- even as this transition process features plenty of corruption & likely an amnesty (like all the other transitions that ended dictatorships & returned democracy to South America, btw).
According to @EFEnoticias, a @StateDept official has said that after the announcement of a new Supreme Court in #Venezuela (projected by US officials for end of 2026), authorities will declare the “vacancy” of the presidency and hold a vote in 6 months efe.com/mundo/2026-10-26/gob…
A certain staffer might *say* this, but the video of Trump floating around reacting to the Lula win seems pretty non-committal.
I'll die on this hill: putting the Argentina bailout aside, this admin is really more focused on 'greater north america' (like all previous ones, btw)
Will Freeman retweeted
If Lula wins, it will be because the prospect of a Bolsonaro return shook the complacency and misgivings out of a national coalition that failed to take Flávio seriously as a challenger. The far-right is an indisputable force, but the premature PT obits will need to be shredded.
Much written about the 2025-26 right-wing wave in Latin America.
But if you zoom out, Lula's win is arguably more significant than any of the other recent election results -- for climate, democracy, geopolitical alignment vs. submission to Trumpism, etc.
Will Freeman retweeted
Lula wins, and it wasn’t particularly close — 3.5% or more than 4 million votes.
It’s an epic comeback and we will need time to fully understand it. But one thing is clear — the extension in voting hours was not the difference maker in this race.
I've long thought the concept of "élites emergentes" from Guatemala was especially useful for understanding how power works in Latin America.
Organized crime is one source of the emerging elite regionwide, in Mexico forming a remarkably stable caste of dominant crime families.
Hay familias que han monopolizado las posiciones de liderazgo en las organizaciones criminales como los Guerra, Valencia, Guzmán, Zambada, Arellano, Cárdenas o Carrillo. A continuación una gráfica con las que han durado más tiempo, que se incluyen en un artículo que escribí para @nexosmexico, cuyo link está en el primer comentario.
Will Freeman retweeted
Los continuos reportes de intimidación contra una organización civil que defiende la democracia en Guatemala son sumamente alarmantes. Es fundamental proteger el Estado de derecho para una democracia libre. Estados Unidos se mantiene firme junto a Guatemala contra quienes utilizan el miedo para amenazar la democracia y perpetuar la impunidad.
Nos están siguiendo y nos amenazaron. En septiembre presenté una denuncia y los seguimientos continúan, por eso cancelamos el Congreso Ciudadano del 31 de octubre. El trabajo de #PoderCiudadano por la reforma a la justicia en #Guatemala va a continuar.
What an absurd claim.
Critiques of Morena for absorbing some of the worst elements of the old PRI are totally fair.
In certain states, Morena tolerates & promotes the narco-corruption it once criticized (so do PRI & PAN, btw).
But its opponents are often deeply unserious.
Today, we are revealing all the narco Mexican party Morena cells operating in the United States that we allege are working for the Democratic Party and using drug cartel money to finance their activities.
Full investigation and evidence:
infp.simonlevy.mx/en
Marcela Turati's, Thelma Gómez Durán's, & Eliezer Budasoff's story on narco-slavery was one of the most searing, unforgettable pieces I have read in years.
This webinar on the issue, from @Equatormag - behind so much exceptional writing recently - is bound to be important.
I will be logging on to this to learn more about forced labor in Mexico.
FYI
@clomnitz @marcelaturati @Equatormag
equator.org/events/slavery-i…
Ecuador more & more resembles Venezuela or Nicaragua.
If the state has any solid evidence linking its detained political opponents to organized crime, it should produce it fast.
Otherwise this is clearly just political persecution in service of building a political hegemony.
🚨 #ÚltimaHora | La Policía de la Zona 4 confirmó la detención de la excandidata presidencial, Luisa González, en Manabí.
Más detalles en Ecuavisa.com 📲
#NoticiaEnDesarrollo
Will Freeman retweeted
Nos están siguiendo y nos amenazaron. En septiembre presenté una denuncia y los seguimientos continúan, por eso cancelamos el Congreso Ciudadano del 31 de octubre. El trabajo de #PoderCiudadano por la reforma a la justicia en #Guatemala va a continuar.
Insightful post.
"Militarized police raids reorganized criminal networks. In many spaces they essentially produced mega-bandas that brought together various criminal networks and dominated larger territories. In other places, police and military effectively displaced.. gangs."
Beyond the Social Cleansing Hypothesis: Researching Venezuela’s Decrease in Violence davidsmilde.substack.com/p/b…
Will Freeman retweeted
Closer ties to the United States would be a double-edged sword for Brazil. Washington would be a partner in Flávio’s war on organized crime—but also in his war on trees. In combating corruption and protecting democracy, expect episodic U.S. support: Aos amigos, tudo; aos inimigos, a lei.
AMAZÔNIA - Brasil registrou a menor taxa de desmatamento da história, queda de 41,8% que reforça o discurso ambiental de Lula a dias da eleição contra Flávio Bolsonaro
Por @simoneiglesias e @gutavsaraiva bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Such a sad day for Guatemala.
Juan Francisco Foppa kindly gave me an interview when I was doing PhD research there in 2022.
If Porras was still fiscal, there would be no chance of figuring out who was behind this. With the new fiscal, there's at least a chance.
QEPD.
#URGENTE | Asesinan a Juan Francisco Solórzano Foppa en el Campo Marte
La Policía reporta la captura de dos personas tras el ataque armado ocurrido en el interior del Campo Marte en la zona 5.
Detalles 👇🏻
emisorasunidas.com/nacional/…
Will Freeman retweeted
Indignación, frustración, tristeza!
Solidaridad con la familia y amigos de JFS Foppa.
Usaron indebidamente el Derecho Penal para encarcelarlo,
Lo forzaron a salir de Guatemala para silenciarlo.
Nunca lograron callar su voz!
Hoy los cobardes de siempre; según la historia de Guatemala, creen haber ganado la partida.
#JusticiaParaFoppa
Venezuelan forces killed at least 6,856 people in just one 18 mo. period, claiming most died 'resisting arrest.'
Same reason the Southern Cone military dictatorship often gave for executions.
Interesting how few on the left recognized it, then or now.
nytimes.com/2026/10/16/world…
One reason leftists in the U.S./Europe are so focused on Latin America's 60s-90s (mil juntas, Che, etc) as opposed to the recent past is bc it would require them to face Venezuela, Nicaragua, what Cuba is now.
It's easier to romanticize the distant past.
xitter.cf/thestrokes/status/2110…
Looks fascinating, congrats Ioan.
Italy, the United States, El Salvador, and other countries all suffered gangsters extorting businesses. How did they confront them, and what can Mexico learn from that to fight its own extortion crisis. I look at this in this story from the series "Piso"↓
crashoutmedia.com/p/a-histor…
Paz, Kast, Fujimori, Milei, De La Espriella already dropping.
Many of the recently (& not so recently) elected right-wing presidents are underwater.
Bukele and Sheinbaum sometimes seem like the only presidents left w/ mass support.
Fujimori approval falls from 43% to 28% in just a month, apparently on economic and crime fears, but you also sorta wonder if this is just normal Peruvian politics. (Home of the 3% approval rating!)
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
