Willis Thomas

Our chart of the week shows the expected increase in China's #urea exports this year following recent quota allocation announcements #nitrogen #fertilizer

The reduction in #sulphur supply due to the conflict in the Middle East and the Hormuz closure (plus export restrictions from Kazakhstan and Russia) is evident in trade. Imports by major consumers for Q1-Q3 are estimated down nearly 40%, with the most severe drop in China

China's lower-priced domestic #sulphur supply allows margins for #phosphate producers to creep back into positive territory, even though China's producers are locked out of the export market and limited to lower-priced domestic sales #fertilizer

Our chart of the week shows heavily negative margins for #phosphate producers in China, as they face high prices for raw material #sulphur, capped domestic sales prices, and a ban on export sales #fertilizer

Pent-up cargoes of #urea, #sulphur, #phosphates and #ammonia – stranded for weeks west of Hormuz – have now largely escaped their incarceration. Ballasting back into the Gulf remains a separate matter and non-Iranian shipowners are still deeply cautious (1/3)

Our chart of the week shows what's happened with Middle East #urea supply over 15 weeks of the conflict #nitrogen #fertilizer

Global #phosphate supply will be reduced this year, partly due to cuts in the availability of raw material #sulphur, but there is a risk that export availability declines even more steeply than current base-case expectations #fertilizer

With the conflict passing two weeks, it becomes increasingly likely that still-operational #fertilizer plants will need to curtail output. Fertilizer traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is paralysed and prices for #urea, #ammonia, #sulphur and #phosphates have surged (1/3)

Rising Chinese #phosphate supply coupled with lower export offers weighed on global #DAP prices, sparking buying interest from India's importers as affordability improved. DAP prices in India declined to $509-510/t CFR, reaching the lowest since 10 August 2023 (1/3)

Our chart of the week shows high #urea stocks in India, suggesting little need for a tender in the immediate future #nitrogen #fertilizer

Our chart of the week shows India comfortable with #urea volumes given closing stocks for 2023 60% higher than a year earlier #fertilizer