Wizard of Windsor

Today our esrtwhile Wizard uncovers the financial sorcery bedevilling the markets, and the maths behind a Financial Crash which, if it happens, might wipe as much as 70% off the S&P500: wizardswinners.substack.com/…

Yes, the market does need to fall by 50% or more just to get to Fair Value Hi Acolytes, If, like me, you are confused at hearing endlessly on CNBC that the US Stock Market is trading at about its mean level, yet on the other side of the fence hear rumblings of a Bubble and how everything is overpriced, welcome to the world of Fiscal Dominance. Long story short the ratios used, including CAPE, long-term P/Es and similar benchmarks simply can’t be trusted on like-for-like terms. The Feds have injected the fiscal and financial system with such Fauci-esque abandon that we can no longer be sure where we are in terms of fair valuations. Allow me to introduce you to two computations I have got Wiz to work on, the first being the version CNBC et al want you to believe. Please read Exhibit 1 (image below)… You can see that when calculated in broad EV/FCF terms today's multiple for the S&P 500 is somewhere between 25 and 30, just above its long-term average of 20-25. However what no-one is telling you is that these vessels are sailing in much more benign conditions now (ie with artificial tailwinds) than in previous datasets. And we’re not talking about a knot or two here. We’re talking double the wind strength from astern compared to previous periods. But - of course - we know that such stimuli cannot last. This has been caused by the following factors: - Fiscal Mirage Juicing Margins: The U.S. national debt crossed $40 trillion in August 2026, and those persistent deficits act as a direct fiscal injection into the private sector. - The Corporate Debt Time Lag: Large caps are currently surfing a demographic wave of cheap debt. For the S&P 500, the average maturity of outstanding debt is around seven years, with almost 80% financed at fixed rates. This means current free cash flow is heavily shielded from the actual present cost of capital. Their margins look fantastic today because they are servicing 2021 debt levels in a 2026 economy. - Liquidity Suppressing the Discount Rate: The sheer volume of systemic liquidity has compressed the equity risk premium (ERP). When capital has nowhere else to go, it herds into mega-cap tech, driving the ‘EV’ side of the equation into the stratosphere. Standard models discount future cash flows using this currently suppressed cost of capital, making everything look mathematically justifiable on paper while masking the underlying systemic fragility. What does all this juicing and jiggerpokery mean when we ask Wiz to adjust for it all? Ladies and Gentlemen, I present you with Exhibit 2… When these adjustments are made, we see the EV/FCF balloon to 42 for the S&P 500 and a mindbending 52x for the Nasdaq 100. Now tell me again this market is ‘cheap’… Stay magical, Wizard

Mkango: Nasdaq Spin-Out Clears a Key Hurdle There’s been some good news overnight for Mkango Magnetic Materials (AIM/TSX-V: MKA) shareholders. The US Securities and Exchange Commission has signed off on the registration document for the spin-out of Mkango Rare Earths (MKAR). MKAR is the new company that will hold the Songwe Hill rare earths project in Malawi and the planned Pulawy separation plant in Poland. This was the step that had held the deal up for months, and I’m sure management and shareholders alike are mighty relived it’s done. What happens next? 5 November: voting papers go out to shareholders of Crown PropTech, the US-listed shell company that MKAR is merging with. 23 November: last day for Crown PropTech shareholders to ask for their cash back. 25 November: Crown PropTech shareholders vote on the deal. Then: once Nasdaq approves the listing and the other conditions are met, MKAR is expected to trade on Nasdaq under the ticker ‘MKAR’. Mkango would keep around 79% of it. Still to tick off Two conditions, however, still remain. Nasdaq has to approve the listing, and the deal needs to meet its minimum cash requirement, which relies on a private placing that has yet to be announced. Watch for news on that placing over the coming weeks. It’s the next big piece of the jigsaw. Why it matters A Nasdaq listing would give Mkango shareholders a stake in a separately traded US company. The aim is to open up American investors and funding to develop Songwe and Pulawy. Meanwhile, Mkango itself becomes a focused rare earth magnet recycling business, with plants in the UK and Germany and the planned Texas plant through HyProMag USA. After more than a year of waiting, the finishing line is now in sight, with the vote on 25 November. Stay Magical, Wizard

Today I investigated Borealis Mining's wonderful project in Nevada - plenty of upside here! wizardswinners.substack.com/… $BOGO.NE – at Hua Hin, Thailand

Yes, ASA International IS a cashflow juggernaut going full throttle Back in June I called ASA International a cashflow juggernaut in high-gear CAGR economies, trading at a fraction of fair value (then at 198p). Yesterday’s Q3 Business Update demonstrates its engine is firing on all cylinders. Main numbers (30 Sep 2026): Let’s start with the main numbers from the update. Gross OLP: USD 630.6m (+20% YoY in USD / +24% constant currency; +5.2% QoQ) Group Gross OLP: USD 634.1m (+5% QoQ) Clients: 2.782m (+8.6% YoY) Ticket size is rising; however the branch network almost flat → this confirms ASA’s strong operating leverage is continuing PAR>30: Group 2.9% (from 2.4%), driven entirely by Uganda (4.6%). Ex-Uganda still 2.4%. South Asia 0.7%, West Africa 1.9%. Note this is Portfolio at Risk after 30 days and not defaults Some standout highlights is that Pakistan (+43% YoY USD) and Ghana (+30% YoY USD) are leading the group. Management tone meanwhile has shifted from ‘measured’ to explicitly expecting solid growth for the rest of the year. In other words, you (still) ain’t seen nothing yet! Valuation - 5x from here? The valuation case from the original note holds (and is in fact reinforced). Base case remains 695p, Bull 950p, Expected Value 652p. Harvest floor (no growth and the Bear Case) is still ~454p. Note that even to reach a no-growth multiple on Wizard’s severe DCF methodology, the share price would still need to double. Thus at ~230–250p the market continues to price a deep contraction narrative that the operating numbers simply do not support. Reminder - the gross OLP is growing at 20% YoY and the CEO yesterday said growth was accelerating. The current trajectory of the shares are indicating an Extra Bull Valuation of 1100p+ - or a 5x from here, just to trade at Fair Value We can see how absurd the disconnect is in the chart below. Stay magical, Wizards! wizardswinners.substack.com/… #ASAI.L $ASAI.L LON:ASAI

Yesterday's update on lastminute.com once again highlighted the exceptional value the investment offers shareholders. To be valued on the same level as Muse-threatened Booking.com, it would need to 4x And lastminute has a moat for that Booking lacks Oh, Booking is lastminute's customer, too. #lmz #lmnz #bkng $BKNG Read about it here: wizardswinners.substack.com/…

lastminute.com is insanely undervalued. The market has lost all ability to do basic maths. Read about it here: wizardswinners.substack.com/… #lmnz $lmnz SWX: LMN

Audioboom Q3 Results and Trading Update #BOOM Q3 Results dropped this morning and were simply excellent with Y-o-Y… Revenues up 17% to US$23.8m Gross profit up 30% to US$5.6 million Adjusted profit (EBITDA) up 89% to US$2.2m Cash up 131% to US$6.7m 17% > 30% > 89% > 131%: this is the very definition of operational leverage as top-line progress explodes the further down it goes towards the bottom line. It’s also a characteristic of businesses with highly attractive platform economics (lastminute.com and AC8 (potentially) being other such examples in our portfolio) In our initiation (below) we wrote of this powerful dynamic and also about FCF inflection, which is now spinning faster in a flywheel effect. So why have the shares not exploded in kind, I am already being asked? The problem is, just as I have been saying for months, is that if you want to sell your house, make sure your Estate Agent is pricing it properly and putting it into the window. Cavendish are doing neither. Audioboom is the only Cavendish client where they don’t run the numbers out past 2026 - have a look below. Why the special treatment? We don’t know. Management is aware of this and don’t care. Cavendish’s response is defensiveness and gaslighting under questioning. If you have platform economics and operational leverage, it is essential to show the effect of the flywheel by demonstrating the numbers growing exponentially (rather than linearly) going forward. Not doing so is either incompetence or imbecility. Either way it’s holding back the opportunity of the share price to appreciate. Cavendish need to be fired and the FD needs to get off his high horse. All the excellent work management is doing operationally is being dissipated for shareholders (themselves included, let’s not forget) as they continue to put the lamp under the bed. Looking ahead, the company has reiterated its strategy to acquire new businessese. Their last acquisition (Adelicious) was hit-and-miss. Let’s hope management will take on board the constructive feedback given to them instead of the adversarial approach they seem to be adopting. Wizard’s position is that they do not need to acquire any new businesses and BOOM will do well even if they sit around making daisy chains while the flywheel does its thing. No acquisition is better than an unaccretive one. For now, the results are excellent and BOOM remains a BUY. …Thank God there are substackers to tell you that ;-) Peace out, Wizard. wizardswinners.substack.com/…

Our latest Winners and Sinners is out... wizardswinners.substack.com/…

With Sovereign Bond Yields soaring, we assess whether there may be a Crash before Christmas, and find our early warning signs already flashing red... wizardswinners.substack.com/…

Metir PLC's update yesterday was another big step forward as the company takes steps to integrate its world class patented detection technology with Puraffinity's PFAS treatment solution. Plus there's more... substack.com/@wizardofwindso… Way to go team! #metir #pfas met.l

West Wits Mining (WWI.AX) is now producing at its Qala Shallows mine in South Africa, and has discovered large uranium optionality on its properties. Yet the market is still valuing it as an Explorer We love valuation disconnects like this! wizardswinners.substack.com/… #westwits #goldminers #gold

Following on from our Weather Barometer which gauges the risk of a 20% drawdown in the markets, I will be releasing an analysis this week demonstrating that the K-shaped economy has now become a K-shaped market with many real economy indicators already rolling over and leading to real risks of a stock market rout. This is happening now! Stay tuned for a follow-up to our Vanilla Sky article: wizardswinners.substack.com/… #wizardswinners

Market Risks are rising fast... investors are living under the spell of a Vanilla Sky. Read all about it here: wizardswinners.substack.com/…

Veteran Mining Analyst Jeff Clark is very bullish on miners per his latest interview below. youtube.com/watch?v=-xBNG42b… Which mining companies does he think offers the most upside with the least risk? - Those that are close to producing but not producing yet or just ramping up. By way of a quick recap, here is where the miners in Wizard’s Gold Mining Basket are currently at on their production curve: Adyton Resources #ADY.V - Targeting First Pour Q4 2027 AltynGold #ATN.L - Expansion, Ramping Up 2nd MINE Andrada Mining #ATM.L - Expansion, Steady State 2028 Barton Gold #bgd.ax - First Pour H2 2027 Borealis Mining #BOGO.V - First Pour Sept 2025, Ramping Up Denarius Metals #dmet.ne - First Pour June 2025, Ramping Up 4 mines in Colombia and Spain Jaguar Mining #jag.to - Producing, Ramping Up Turmalina (March 2026) Starcore International #sam.to - Producing small scale, Ramping Up Talisker Resources #tsk.to - First Pour Aug 2025, Ramping Up West Wits Mining #wwi.ax - First Pour March 2026, Ramping Up In other words, most of our stocks are in the sweet spot! Stay magical, Wizards #gold #goldminers