Wolf 144 🅧

Crypto Roundup - October 7, 2023 $BTC #Bitcoin - I've seen some strange interpretations this week: 🔹 One is that we're in the "normal" halving cycle and have a 2-3 year bull market ahead of us. 🔹 The other is that we're basically going to spike to the next level of resistance at around 40k and resume the downtrend. I think both are wrong, and I'll explain why. ➖ First of all, let’s ignore permabears calling for $10k. Let’s pray for them. We’ll only debunk interpretations that make actual sense given the chart. ➖ 🔹"Normal" halving cycle, with 2-3 years of bull market ahead of us. Using statistical probabilities on bitcoin is borderline ridiculous; we don't have enough history to see real statistical analogies, and you really need to stretch to compare the previous bull markets. Most importantly, the odds of a recession next year (that we can calculate with enough data) are sky high. To argue that bitcoin has 2-3 years of bull market ahead, you have to think that even if stocks crash, bitcoin will do its own thing. Bitcoin is now on the extreme curve of risk assets. It's not an hedge against anything, it's a lower beta play if you're bullish on a late tech ($QQQ) cycle and especially on risk assets like small caps ($IWM). You can clearly see now that we have yet to enter the late stage of the uptrend in $QQQ and $IWM has been range bound for months just like bitcoin. ➖ 🔹Spike to the next level of resistance around 40k and resume the downtrend. This is a rookie mistake I see all the time. One thing is to predict that supply and demand levels will play out most of the time and scalp them - the odds are on your side. Another is to base your expectations of future market structure on them, which is simply, again, a rookie mistake. In 2019, I've seen several good TA traders expect 6k to be the final resistance before the downtrend resumes. Bitcoin didn't even flinch and easily reached 14k. These levels are playing out in real time, you can't know the magnitude of the reaction beforehand when the next demand zone hasn't even formed; the only thing you can know for sure is that there will be a first reaction, and that in a rangebound environment like we're in now, these levels will be rejected pretty hard. The fact that we've seen them rejected in alts while bitcoin has been ranging doesn't mean that you should expect a hard rejection of bitcoin once it starts to trend after consolidating for more than a year. What I expect is simply a pullback. ➖ 🔹What I think will happen - new ATH in 6-9 months before global recession Not much has changed this week. The trend is up, but we haven't broken a major resistance level (see chart). I think we are in the disbelief phase, basically the typical wave 2 correction where everyone expects the downtrend to continue. IMO we will break resistance soon and reach ATH in the next 6-9 months or so (just in time for the recession). We will probably have a rejection at the last level of supply below ATH, one of which will be quite deep and will mark the major wave 4 on our way up. We can then start calculating a top when we're on our last leg, I don’t have insane targets for this move tbh. I’d double sign something around $100-120k, my expectations are even lower for now, we'll have to see where wave 4 will be first. I made a squiggly line on the chart, trusting you to understand that no one is psychic, even though many people on Twitter pretend to be. ➖ I posted the total market cap for altcoins last week, nothing has changed, basically they will all move with BTC and ETH anyway. Some alts that have a nice technical setup and can run if $OTHERS breaks above the current resistance level: $TRX $FET $INJ $OCEAN $STX Again, alts move in multiples. It's important to understand your own risk tolerance and adjust your position size accordingly. Just buy small bags, they're much easier to manage than calculating stops on things that can move 50% on a whim ;) Have a great weekend guys, 🐺 Wolf