Bought some $TMF today. I'm ready to be hurt again.

Maybe today Satan. Maybe today.

Headed South

The premise for why static support/resistance levels "work" is that traders who bought or sold at those levels will exhibit that behavior again when they see the price get back to that important level. If it was a good place to buy before, it will be a good place to buy again in the future, or so goes the thinking. Now ask yourself, does anyone make trading decisions regarding IWM based on a price level they remember from months ago? And furthermore, since IWM is based on the Russell 2000 Index, does it make sense that the outcome of those stocks aggregated together into an index would be driven by this supposed effect of seeing a prior ETF level get reached again, and trading based on it? The supposed effects of static support and resistance behavior break down when stocks are pooled into an index or ETF, especially one that is not greatly watched by people. IWM arguably is watched more than many ETFs, but the breakdown effect is the same. A level seen months ago is just not that important to what happens now. IF YOU DOUBT ME, and I am confident many readers will, try this: Pull up a chart of IWM, and start drawing horizontal lines from any prior tops or bottoms months ago which you think were important. Then see how many of those levels really mattered to future price action. But you should only do this if you are ready to have your preconceived notions get challenged by evidence. Then try it with other small ETFs. Try it with commodity prices. Try it with currencies. See how many such lines matter across months.

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ANTHROPIC'S DRAFT IPO FILING SHOWS REVENUE UP ~15X AND AN $80.7 BILLION LOSS Here's what's inside, per the WSJ Anthropic generated about $16.3 billion in revenue in the first half of 2026, up from $1.1 billion a year earlier, according to a draft prospectus viewed by the Journal. It also reported a net loss of $80.7 billion. About $72 billion of that came from accounting charges tied to convertible notes and other instruments it used to raise money. The other big numbers: • Nearly $9 billion spent on computing in the first half, more than in all of 2025 • About one-fifth of revenue came from just two customers • Roughly $450 billion in cloud commitments over the next 7 to 10 years, including $111 billion with Google $GOOGL, $110 billion with Amazon $AMZN and $31 billion with Microsoft $MSFT • Total future infrastructure costs top $600 billion About a third of the filing is risk factors, including the risk of AI models causing real-world harm and growing political resistance to data centers. The IPO could value Anthropic at up to $2 trillion.