Yeo

1/ I started mining #Bitcoin in 2011. Back then a block paid 50 $BTC and people laughed at "magic internet money." 3 cycles later, here's what mining taught me 🧵

Treasury cut MEXC off from the US financial system over $16B in sanctions evasion and cybercrime flows. Next morning, $100M $USDC moved into MEXC from an unknown wallet. A FinCEN ban shuts the dollar door. Not the exchange. What's your exit trigger on an offshore CEX?

69.5% of 2026 midterm winners are pro-crypto...higher than 2024. Same week $BTC cut $74,888, under the Sep 15 low. Political rails are filling. Spot is still flushing. Which prints first into Monday...a $75k hold, or another red week under "pro-crypto" headlines?

$BTC is -3.1% from Monday's open ($78,354 to ~$75,889). $PAXG (gold proxy) is +3.8% ($3,911 to ~$4,059). Same week. Opposite bid. PAXG bounced off the Oct 30 $3,890 low. $BTC cut a fresh low at $74,888, under the Sep 15 $74,968. Does the metals lead hold into Sunday... or does $BTC catch up first?

US 401(k)s hold about $10.8 trillion. The DOL crypto safe-harbor rule just hit White House final review. A hypothetical 2% crypto allocation is over $200B. Potential demand, not committed money. Retirement rails are still filling out the form. First $1B of 401(k) $BTC inflows in 2027... or still paperwork at the next ATH?

$BTC is trading under the 50-week SMA. Spot ~$75.7k vs ~$75.8k on the average. Last weekly close under it was Sep 7. This morning wicked to $74.9k...through the Sep 15 low. Two days after an $80.5k close. Does Sunday reclaim $75.8k, or is sub-$75k the range now?

Tether says it holds about 150,000 $BTC. Its Sep 30 reserve report implied 100,060. That's ~50,000 coins (~$3.9B) the attestation doesn't show, and ~$11.5B total...more than every public company on BitcoinTreasuries except Strategy. Print the dollars, stack the coins. Is 150,000 $BTC on a stablecoin issuer's books a bid under $75k, or an overhang if $USDT redemptions ever spike?

Gold +1.2% today. $BTC -1.9%, and it just lost $77,000. Same risk-off Monday. Digital gold had one job. The Oct 30 low at $76.3k is the last floor before the 50W at ~$75.6k... does it hold this week, or does the 50W finally get tested?

Gold +1.2% today. $BTC -1.9%, and it just lost $77,000. Same risk-off Monday. Digital gold had one job. The Oct 30 low at $76.3k is the last floor before the 50W at ~$75.6k... does it hold this week, or does the 50W finally get tested?

Binance reopened withdrawals and $4.65B walked out in under 10 hours. Only $1.01B came back in. Net $3.64B...2.1% of its $171B, and still less than the $6.3B the hackers took. A bank run is when withdrawals don't clear. These did. What net outflow % would actually worry you...5%, 10%, or nothing as long as they clear?

$BTC Uptober closes in about 5 hours at -7.1%...the worst October on Binance data since 2017, and the first back-to-back red Octobers in that run. The only other red ones were 2018 (-3.8%) and 2025 (-3.9%). The Novembers after them went -36.6% and -17.6%. Does the $75k zone hold into November, or does this one rhyme too?

Only 4 Halloweens in Bitcoin history closed lower than the year before...2015, 2018, 2022 and now 2026 ($110k to $77.4k, -30%). The next Halloween after each one: +124%, +45%, +67%. Been mining since 2011 when Halloween $BTC was $3.27. Does 2027 break the pattern? nitter.gq/WatcherGuru/status/211…

Gold just lost $4,000. $PAXG $3,896...lowest since Oct 2025, -31% from the $5,650 top on Jan 29 and now below where it was a year ago ($4,034). $BTC -6% the last two days, gold -4%. No safe haven bid anywhere. Where do you step in on gold...$3,800, $3,600, or not until the $3,000s?

Mining since 2011, I watched Mt. Gox lose 850k BTC and nobody froze a thing. $6.3B stolen from Binance and $3B is already frozen, with the Secret Service working with Circle on the rest. Recovery runs through the centralized parts now...does that make you trust CEXs more or less after this? nitter.gq/WatcherGuru/status/211…

$80k got defended four days straight. Then it closed at $77,992 on Oct 29...the first daily close under it since Sep 17. Next floors: the 50 week MA near $75.8k and the Sep 15 low at $74,968. Does the 50W hold, or is the 200W at $67.5k back on the table before year end?

If EIP-7702 was the problem, wouldn't other exchanges be vulnerable?

Massive FUD wave from the Binance hot wallet moves. CZ says user funds are covered. Stay focused.

Bitwise raised its 10-year $BTC target to $1.6M today. Same day, spot ETFs printed their first negative 30 days since July: -$292M per Glassnode. Mining since 2011, I learned to watch the flows, not the targets. Is -$292M a blip, or the first crack in the bid that carried this cycle? nitter.gq/Cointelegraph/status/2…

$ETH/BTC just wicked 0.02875, lowest since Jul 24. That's -14% from the Sep 11 high of 0.0334 in seven weeks. The whole September rally is gone, and the Jun 6 low at 0.0253 is the last real floor on the chart. Does 0.0253 get retested before year end, or is this where $ETH finally stops bleeding against $BTC?

Monday it was Kraken routing US perps to Hyperliquid. Today it's ICE, the company that owns the NYSE, planning a US-regulated perp market built on @HyperliquidX. $HYPE ~$88 after a +10% move, about 10% under its $97.96 ATH. The offshore perp DEX is turning into Wall Street's backend... does $HYPE take out the ATH before year end, or does this headline get sold like the last one?

$BTC wicked under $80k four days straight and closed above it every time. $635.6M left ETFs in one day, then $286M came back in two. Walked through the whole week candle by candle...which level breaks first, $80k or $84.9k?