Chief Emerging Markets Economist at Bloomberg. Senior Fellow at Harvard @MiddleEast_HKS. PhD @LSEEcon. Views are mine. الأحد بالعربي
Joined December 2011
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"The US ordered some diplomats and their families to leave Saudi Arabia"
"At least four people were killed by attacks on an Aramco oil site and an eastern airport"
"The US and Israel [are] drawing up plans for renewed strikes on [Iran]"
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Saudi Arabia is cash rich: ~$700 billion in foreign assets
But cashflow poor: it has been running two deficits (chart)
The Iran war, and the fighting with the Houthis, are adding to the bill
Full analysis on @TheTerminal
Ziad Daoud retweeted
Discussed Saudi Arabia this morning on Bloomberg TV with @AbeerAO1 and @StuartLWallace
Here's part of the conversation
bloomberg.com/news/videos/20…
Ziad Daoud retweeted
Trump is threatening strikes on Iran after the midterms. We identified the options: discrete operations that could also be combined into a major campaign, unilaterally or with Israel. None end the war; all risk major blowback.
@TheTerminal: blinks.bloomberg.com/news/st…
Has Iran ramped up attacks on ships?
Yes
"Attacks on vessels near Hormuz have jumped to as many as 12 a week from two to four over the summer"
Have oil flows slowed?
Yes
Morgan Stanley: They're "down roughly 4 million barrels a day from the recent peak"
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Discussed Saudi Arabia this morning on Bloomberg TV with @AbeerAO1 and @StuartLWallace
Here's part of the conversation
bloomberg.com/news/videos/20…
Ziad Daoud retweeted
Excellent thread by Ziad Daoud Sir on Bahrain's external balance at a time when middle eastern war has diminished the prospects of rescue financing from the gulf states.
Ziad Daoud retweeted
New @FT piece by @hebasaleh on Sisi's succession plan, quoting my analysis:
ft.com/content/f591211b-497f…
The transition will be controlled and closely scrutinised. The military reads history as showing the least unstable presidencies came from the system. That favours insiders.
Ziad Daoud retweeted
A Gulf bailout for Bahrain is a matter of how, not if
Even before the Iran war, markets were betting on one
The war has made the need more urgent
But its financial toll & regional politics complicate matters
1/5
Ziad Daoud retweeted
In 2018, Kuwait, Saudi & the UAE pledged $10 billion to rescue Bahrain
But the Iran war has strained Gulf finances
And regional politics has shifted
The question now: who will pay this time, and how much?
5/5
xitter.cf/ZiadMDaoud/status/2110…
Ziad Daoud retweeted
Markets are reacting to Bahrain’s growing debt and dwindling reserves
Yields hit levels last seen during its 2018 bailout
2 forces are driving this
• External: Higher US interest rates
• Domestic: Bahrain’s growing financial vulnerabilities
4/5
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Ziad Daoud retweeted
Bahrain's government debt stands at over 160% of GDP
The IMF ranks it 4th globally, behind Sudan, Japan & Singapore
In reality, it’s effectively second, after Sudan
3/5
xitter.cf/ZiadMDaoud/status/2112…
Ziad Daoud retweeted
Let’s go through the signs of trouble
Bahrain’s foreign reserves plunged from $5.2 billion in March to $1.6 billion in August
They now cover less than one month of imports
A $5 billion currency swap with the UAE has yet to show up in the data
2/5
xitter.cf/ZiadMDaoud/status/2042…
Bahrain & UAE sign a currency swap agreement
Translation: they can lend each other about $5 billion for 5 years
Bahrain
• carries high debt
• has no route bypassing Hormuz
• received support from its neighbours in 2018
cbb.gov.bh/media-center/cbb-…
