CSULA Class of ‘28 | Writer | Oscars addict | Pragmatic Leftie | Gay | Swiftie | He/Him | 31 |
Long Beach, CA
Joined May 2011
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Hello fellow spread-sheet nerds!
Here are the margins and swings from the two most recent midterms (16’-18’) & (20’-22’) by both House & Prez results
—-All 50 states—-
Thought it might be helpful for November
Enjoy! 🗳️
docs.google.com/spreadsheets…
Zac Harmon 🌈 retweeted
From @ezraklein’s convo with @NateSilver538 — millennial Democrats are ascendant.
Zac Harmon 🌈 retweeted
With 53% of the vote counted, batches of votes from the Tel Aviv area are coming in. The NEtaynahu bloc now stands at 55 mandates, six short while the Eisenkot bloc stands at 50. The advantage for Eisenkot has shifted the parameters of the regressions, and the prediction now changes to 54 for the Eisenkot bloc, 53 for the Netanyahu bloc, and 13 for the Arab parties. Will this trend continue?
Zac Harmon 🌈 retweeted
PPIC CA POLL- (10/16-22, 1,068LV)
GOV
🟦61 Becerra
🟥37 Hilton
PROPS
✅55Y 43N - 1 ($11.25B Housing Bond)
✅60Y 39N - 2 (Rainy Day Fund)
✅58Y 41N - 3 (Make Tax on High Incomes Permanent)
❌45Y 52N - 4 (Public Financing of Campaigns)
❌45Y 52N - 5 (Change Recall Process)
✅65Y 32N - 37 (Middle-Income Home Loans)
✅57Y 41N - 38 ($8.4B Immunology Bond)
❌41Y 58N - 39 (Voter ID)
❌46Y 52N - 40 (Wealth Tax)
❌48Y 49N - 41 (Prohibits Certain New State Taxes)
✅51Y 47N - 42 (Prohibit Retroactive State Taxes)
❌42Y 55N - 43 (Restore 2/3rd Threshold to Pass Special Taxes)
❌25Y 71N - 44 (Community Health Clinic Mandates)
❌46Y 50N - 45 (CEQA Reform)
ppic.org/pdf/ppic-statewide-…
Zac Harmon 🌈 retweeted
Every indication is that Black turnout is at a level not seen in years. Callais awoke a sleeping giant.
Zac Harmon 🌈 retweeted
Breaking News: Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) endorses Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins in Alaska’s governor’s race
“I am announcing my endorsement of Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins,” Murkowski told Rebecca Palsha on Tuesday. “JKT is young Alaskan with a view and a perspective that I think Alaska needs right now.”
Source: AK News Source
alaskasnewssource.com/2026/1…
An idiot in my digital history class today said that the election results were already predetermined “weeks ago”
I countered him & asked why
He said “because of that pollster last week turned out to be fake”
Huh?!!?? 🙄
Zac Harmon 🌈 retweeted
The Blacker the precinct in Virginia, the higher the turnout compared to 2025. By next week, we are looking at the highest share of the Black vote in a Virginia election in modern history.
Zac Harmon 🌈 retweeted
👀 According to Louisiana pollster @WinWithJMC, Letlow is winning LA Senate, but “this is not going to be a slam dunk race”.
“I am seeing defections from Rs toward Ds about the 12% range”.
Comes amid ASTRONOMICAL black turnout in Louisiana, and a broader Bible Belt tsunami.
#TheLensNola🔍 Davis is closing the gap as he bids to be Louisiana’s first Black U.S. Senator since Reconstruction, leaving Letlow without the sure victory Republicans had hoped for.
✍️ Danny Cherry Jr.
Full story 🔗: buff.ly/Pz5xhgG
Zac Harmon 🌈 retweeted
Channel 12 exit poll of the Israeli election
Seats in the Knesset
🟥Eisenkot bloc 52
🟦Netanyahu bloc 50
⬜️Arab parties 18
61 needed for majority
Zac Harmon 🌈 retweeted
Tonight, at 8 PM EST
Looks like late-breakers are going towards Aaron Ford (D) in the NV Gov race
I’ve had this race as Lean R all cycle
Hart Research poll | 10/20-10/25 LV
Nevada Governor 2026
🟦Aaron Ford 49%
🟥Joe Lombardo 45% (incumbent)
(Conducted by the Democratic Governors Association)
Link to poll: hub.nationaljournal.com/wedn…
Maybe get through your 2nd election first
New York Governor Kathy Hochul tells Politico that she’s planning to seek a third term as Governor in 2030.
Link to article: politico.com/news/magazine/2…
Zac Harmon 🌈 retweeted
NPR/PBS/Marist poll | 10/19-10/20
(Likely voters)
Generic congressional ballot 2026
🟦Democratic 52%
🟥Republican 44%
—
(Registered voters)
🟦Democratic 52%
🟥Republican 42%
——
(Likely voters)
President Trump approval
❌Disapprove 59%
✅Approve 40%
Link to poll: maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/…
Zac Harmon 🌈 retweeted
Hart Research poll | 10/20-10/25 LV
Nevada Governor 2026
🟦Aaron Ford 49%
🟥Joe Lombardo 45% (incumbent)
(Conducted by the Democratic Governors Association)
Link to poll: hub.nationaljournal.com/wedn…
Zac Harmon 🌈 retweeted
Echelon Insights poll | 10/16-10/23 LV
2026 key statewide races
Maine
—
US Senate
🟦Troy Jackson 51%
🟥Susan Collins 44% (incumbent)
—
🟦Governor: Pingree +13 (51-38)
——
US Senate
🟦Jon Ossoff 55% (incumbent)
🟥Mike Collins 40%
—
🟦Governor: Bottoms +1 (49-48)
——
Ohio
—
US Senate
🟦Sherrod Brown 47%
🟥Jon Husted 47% (Incumbent)
—
🟥Governor: Ramaswamy +2 (47-45)
——
Iowa
—
US Senate
🟦Josh Turek 45%
🟥Ashley Hinson 43%
—
🟦Governor: Sand +4 (50-46)
——
Nebraska
—
US Senate
🟥Pete Ricketts 47% (incumbent)
⬜️Dan Osborn 46%
—
🟥Governor: Pillen +7 (47-40)
——
Florida
—
US Senate
🟥Ashley Moody 51% (incumbent)
🟦Angie Nixon 43%
—
🟥Governor: Donalds +6 (50-44)
It’s quite a large & unusual shift from RV to LV for Maine Senate (+7 pts)
Though D+2 for LV *is* in line with other surveys
RV LV
🔵+9——-> 🔵+2
🤷♂️
Marist poll | 10/22-10/25 RV
US Senate Maine 2026
🟦Troy Jackson 53%
🟥Susan Collins 44% (incumbent)
Link to poll: maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-con…
