Tarun explains how the "AI financial crisis" could start as a duration mismatch problem "My thing is, where does the AI financial crisis happen? There's a lot of duration mismatch here." "Neoclouds and hyperscalers are borrowing at 10-year tranches. They're selling 10-year bonds, 5-year bonds. Then they sell to smaller providers, they sell to inference providers, maybe they sell to hyperscalers for excess capacity. Those are all 1-to-3-year contracts, maybe 5-year at max." "They're taking this 10-year thing, chopping it up into a bunch of 3-to-5-year contracts, and then charging some premium for that. Then that's their business." "What are the inference providers doing? You have everyone from Cloudflare down to the small inference providers, plus Together, Base10, Moodle, etc." "They're taking this 3-year thing and chopping it up and selling it quarterly to SaaS companies and companies that want to do fine tuning, or companies that are consulting companies doing fine tuning, like Applied Compute type companies. They're charging a little bit of premium." "But if I look at this thing, you have this whole duration curve and you have yield at each duration. If you try to add up all the numbers, there's some slippage that is unexplained. I think that's where that blows out the markets. I have a lot of concern about what is happening in these markets."

Haseeb says the AI disruption we were promised is nowhere to be found: “the incumbents have AI too motherf*cker” "We talk to a lot of entrepreneurs and they're like, 'oh, our moat's over. How should I internalize this?' My answer is, almost not at all. I think this is a fake story. This is bullsh*t." "We have not seen any major companies that have had their moats eroded by a post-AI company. There are no examples." "Nobody could come up with any examples to give me other than some very obscure companies that build compilers. I'm like what f*cking company is that that builds compilers, and that was their moat?" "Think about browsers. There was all these examples of Opus 4.8 one-shotting browsers. Obviously these were great tech demos. Nobody uses any f*cking vibe coded browsers because they're sh*t, because they suck. They're very good at the first 10 seconds." Tom: "It's not that people write their own software. It's that the model just eats the software. The thing that is competitive with Photoshop is not vibe coded Photoshop. It's just the image models have gotten so good that why would I ever open Figma or Photoshop? Because I can just prompt the model and generate the thing that I want." Haseeb: “It is very easy and compelling to say everything has changed. Businesses are now being turned on their head. Moats are eroding. Nothing is ever going to be the same. So far that call has aged incredibly poorly.” “We are three years post-ChatGPT. We're a full year post Opus 4.5. Where's all the disruption? You can always say 'oh, it's coming, it hasn't happened, you just have to give it time'. But I think actually the thing you have to appreciate, and Jane Street's a perfect example of this, the incumbents have AI too motherfuckers.” “They have bigger budgets than you do. They have more token spend than you do. And to the extent that they will be pulling farther ahead and their software will be more robust."

Tarun explains how Paper Trade's entire house of cards depends on one token Haseeb: "This feels to me like it's got echoes of basecoin or basis, where it's kind of like okay, well if it works, it's going to be so big and it's going to be enormous. But it's kind of hard to not face any of the various Scyllas and Charybdis's that are flanking it, you know." Tarun: "It's hard for me to imagine this thing works if paper, the coin, doesn't do well. If I look at the house of cards of dependency diagram of all the strategies people claim this is useful for, there is one kind of main villain horcrux or whatever that exists. And that's the paper token." "All these strategies where people are like I'm willing to lose money to get the paper token. How long are they going to do that? If you look at coins that have fair launch but done well, like HYPE, they built a cult pretty quickly." "A paper trades cult is like around losing money to earn more paper. It doesn't have the same house of all finance thing. There's not some long term thing. Everything is like how can I make money quickly off a thousand X. It feels like the paper token price is going to be too dependent on that." "Paper, paper hands causing the paper trade to die."