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bitcoin:native: Price Trades Above Rising 200DMA, Below Overbought Zone Bitcoin is trading near $82.7K, around 14% above its rising 200DMA baseline near $72.5K, while remaining below the 1.5× overbought valuation band near $108.7K. A retest of — or even a temporary move below — a rising 200DMA can remain compatible with a broader bull-market structure and does not, by itself, imply a bearish regime shift. This differs from sustained trading below a falling 200DMA, which would indicate a materially weaker long-term trend condition. The 1.5× band is a valuation reference — not a price target. It marks elevated extension relative to the 200DMA: BTC can reverse before reaching it or remain above it during strong momentum phases. Key takeaway: A temporary move below a rising 200DMA matters less than persistent trading below it while the average flattens or turns lower.

bitcoin:native: STH Cost Basis Rises as Retest Remains Open In the September update, BTC had reclaimed the Short-Term Holder Realized Price. The open question was whether price would return to that level and hold it as support. That retest has not happened. The STH Realized Price has since risen to roughly $73.5K, while BTC is trading around $83K — about 13% above the recent-buyer cost basis. STH Supply in Profit has cooled to around 74%, down from the 85–97% readings seen after the rebound. Most short-term holder supply therefore remains in profit while BTC continues to trade above its cost basis. If price later returns toward $73.5K, that would be the support test. Holding that level would matter more than the fact that price has stayed above it so far. Key takeaway: The STH cost basis has risen to roughly $73.5K, while BTC remains about 13% above it and around 74% of short-term holder supply is still in profit. Whether $73.5K holds can only be tested if price returns to it.

ethereum:0x6982508145454ce325ddbe47a25d4ec3d2311933: 3-Month Liquidation Map Shows Long-Heavy Structure @Alphractal 3-month ethereum:0x6982508145454ce325ddbe47a25d4ec3d2311933 liquidation map shows a strongly long-heavy setup: roughly $1.2B in long-liquidation exposure, or 83% of the map, versus about $241M on the short side. 1000PEPE is trading near $0.00453. The nearest short-liquidation clusters are concentrated around the $0.00470–$0.00484 area, while the larger upside level sits around $0.0054. The larger downside cluster sits around $0.0040–$0.0038, where the main nearby long-cascade risk is concentrated. If that area fails, deeper downside liquidity toward the $0.0032–$0.0030 area comes back into focus. Alphractal’s cascade view shows roughly $80.4M across the four largest downside clusters, versus about $24.4M across the four largest upside clusters. Key takeaway: The 3-month ethereum:0x6982508145454ce325ddbe47a25d4ec3d2311933 liquidation structure is tactically two-sided, but the broader risk remains weighted toward long liquidations. Upside liquidity is visible relatively close to spot and again toward $0.0054, while the larger liquidation exposure remains concentrated below — leaving the setup vulnerable if the current move fails to hold.

bitcoin:native: Adjusted LTH MVRV Exits Shallow Stress, Back in Profit In the April update, adjusted 6M–10Y LTH MVRV — a measure of aggregate profitability for the 6M–10Y holder cohort — was compressing above 1.0. A reading of 1.0 marks the cohort’s aggregate break-even level: above it, the cohort is in unrealized profit; below it, in unrealized loss. That test arrived. Between June and August, the metric fell below 1.0 on five occasions, reaching its 2026 low of roughly 0.94 on June 30 — around 6% below break-even. At that point, BTC traded near $58.5K versus the cohort’s realized-price benchmark of roughly $62K. The stress was real but limited in both depth and duration. The metric remained close to 1.0 rather than entering the deeper and more persistent underwater conditions seen during the 2019 and 2022–23 loss phases. By September 27, adjusted LTH MVRV had recovered to roughly 1.35. BTC traded near $84.5K against a cohort realized price of around $62.7K, placing spot approximately 35% above that basis. Key takeaway: The 6M–10Y cohort has moved out of shallow sub-1.0 stress and back into aggregate profit. This is a constructive reset for this holder group, not a deep or persistent loss phase.