Skydharmic

Block RFQ options on Deribit today: Most of it is short vol or short calls. Bear call spreads and tight strangles around spot. One custom put spread was net bullish, but the day overall is still red on delta. The whales are not betting on a move up. They’re betting on time and range. Whales are collecting premium and betting $BTC stays under $85-90k into year-end, or just ranges near current levels. Curious if that changes into next week.

Crypto options desk update: $MSTR fill orders

Crypto options desk update: Closing the brutal week at -1.49%. Oh wait, crypto is 24/7. Road to $10,000

Weekly recap (roughly Nov 1–6, 2026) Bitcoin & crypto: - $BTC opened near $78k, spiked to ~$81k midweek, then sold off. Trading around $75.5k–$76k by Friday. Down ~3% on the week, heading for a fifth straight red weekly close. - Lows near $74.8k–$75k after Thursday’s equity dump and the jobs number. - Spot BTC ETFs on track for a second weekly outflow (~$870M net through Thursday). Stocks & macro: - Thursday was ugly. Nasdaq –5.5% (into correction, ~12% off the October high). S&P –4.4%. Roughly $2.5–3T wiped. Worst session since the April 2025 tariff shock. AI/tech names (Nvidia, hyperscalers, etc.) got hit hardest. - Trigger: Democratic midterm sweep raised fears of tighter AI/data-center regulation. Brief post-election bounce on Wednesday reversed hard. - October jobs strong (+165k, unemployment 4.1%). Markets now pricing a high chance (~78%) of a December Fed hike. Politics & geopolitics: - US midterms (Nov 3): Democrats took both the House and Senate. Big gains, including flips in places like Texas, Kansas, Ohio. Trump’s party loses control of Congress for the rest of the term. - Iran conflict / Hormuz tensions still in the background (energy prices, uncertainty). Some noise around Ukraine talks, but nothing decisive. What it means: Neutral to cautiously bullish for Bitcoin. Short term it is still trading like a leveraged tech proxy. Liquidity is thinner, ETFs are leaking, and leveraged longs got cleaned out. That can continue if risk-off persists. Longer term the case does not change. Elevated inflation, high rates that still fail to crush prices, political gridlock, ongoing geopolitical friction, and the same debt/deficit trajectory all sit in the background. Bitcoin does not need a clean narrative or a soft Fed to accumulate. It just needs time and continued demand for something outside the system. Positioning without prediction. The tape is messy. The structure underneath is not.

Will be there with my 16 shares 🫡 $MSTR

18 hours (SAST) until FOMC: Here is what I am watching. youtu.be/B4qb3gzYfnM?si=Bb9E…