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NBA🏀 Lock #1 (Oct. 27th)
Ja Morant o 5.5 Assists
(-150 MGM)
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Morant is 2-for-2 on this number in Portland, handing out 8 assists in 23 minutes in the opener and 7 more in 27 minutes in Sacramento. He's getting there without heavy minutes. In his 20 games last season he averaged 8.1 assists, so this line sits well below his normal output.
The matchup should give him extra possessions. The Lakers are pulling down just 37 rebounds a game, the worst mark in the league, and Utah just grabbed 20 offensive boards against them. Portland is averaging 50.5 rebounds a night, so more second chances mean more trips for Morant to create. LA's games have also been shootouts, with the Lakers scoring 125 or more in all three games while giving up 115 a night. More made shots means more of his passes become assists.
Portland's injury report helps too. Shaedon Sharpe is still out and Scoot Henderson is questionable with an ankle injury, leaving one fewer ball handler to share touches with. The Blazers also come in rested against a Lakers team that played Sunday, and the line is only 2.5 to 3.5 with a total around 236, so this should be a fast, competitive game. The concern is a crowded backcourt, since Jrue Holiday out-assisted him in Sacramento and Damian Lillard needs the ball too. But Morant still finished with 7 that night, and fewer guards available tonight means more touches for him. 6+ assists is a number I'm comfortable backing.
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NBA🏀 Lock #2 (Oct. 26th)
Tyrese Haliburton o 9.5 Assists
(-125 FD)
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Haliburton is averaging 9.7 assists through three games back from the Achilles, and the underlying numbers say more are coming. He was generating 17.5 potential assists per game through his first two contests, so his teammates have been leaving dimes on the table. The track record backs it up. Since 2022-23 he's averaged 10.1 assists and reached double digits in 115 of 199 games, a 58% clip. He opened this year with 12 in New Orleans and followed a quieter 7 against Dallas with 10 in Sunday's win over Brooklyn.
Milwaukee is a great setup for a pace-pushing point guard. The Bucks are 0-3, play at the league's third-fastest pace and sit in the bottom five defensively. Chicago just dropped 132 on them. Indiana's offense is humming in front of Haliburton, too. The Pacers hung 136 on Brooklyn last night while going 21-of-43 from three, and that's exactly how his passes turn into assists.
The total is up at 239.5, one of the biggest numbers on the board, and Indiana is a 4.5-point road favorite, so this should stay competitive. The Pacers are also still without backup point guard T.J. McConnell and Ben Sheppard, which keeps the ball in Haliburton's hands. The concern is the back-to-back, as Indiana could manage his minutes this early in his comeback. But Haliburton said after Sunday's game that he plans to play, and in a fast game against one of the league's worst defenses, 10+ assists is a number I'm comfortable backing.
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