Sean D. Emory retweeted
1/ If Jev is as good as it seems, then uhh this COULD change the way things run in AI.
And potentially how we think about compute and memory demand.
Let me explain.
Sean D. Emory retweeted
Sam, and now Dario.
Add on biggest fund in AI blowing up month ago, key executives at OpenAi leaving, hmmm.
Back to Sam and Dario… If they’re both saying some version of this, then it’s hard not to think we’re likely to see some slowdown in the pace of AI development.
There are a few ways to cut it:
1. I’m not sure how this is anything but a negative for the broader AI buildout. If model development needs to become more gated, deliberate, and controlled, that naturally slows the cadence of training, releases, and capital deployment.
2. From what we know, ARR growth for both had already started to decelerate before these comments. So is some of this simply the beginning of an explanation for slower growth?
3. Or, what they’re seeing inside the training runs is genuinely creating concern. If that’s the case, the next stages of model development may need to be released in a much more controlled environment, with more observation, testing, and security around each step.
4. The more cynical interpretation is that the fear continues to get amplified because tighter regulation ultimately helps entrench the existing leaders. If the regulatory burden rises materially, the companies with the most capital, compute, talent, and existing infrastructure are also the ones best positioned to absorb it.
Either way, there’s a lot to chew on here.
But I’m struggling to see how any of these interpretations are meaningfully positive for the pace of the AI buildout.
Sean D. Emory retweeted
Everyone has the brainpower to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach. - Peter Lynch
Sean D. Emory retweeted
Every path to midterms diverges.
SPX from Aug 27 to election day, indexed to 100, over 8 cycles.
Average final: +1.5%
Median: -0.6%
Positive: 4 of 8
Wide dispersion. Setup matters more than the calendar.
$SPY
ALT S&P 500 daily path Aug 27 to election day indexed to 100 over 8 midterm cycles
Sean D. Emory retweeted
11 charts. One takeaway.
In this week's newsletter ✏️
• Software and AI stopped competing for the same dollar
• Macro is quietly stable across wages, jobs, and consumer
• VIX regime favors the bulls
Read and subscribe:
open.substack.com/pub/invest…
$NVDA $OKTA $ZM $CRM
ALT Investing with Data Issue 328 cover
Sean D. Emory retweeted
Quick Nvidia earnings are out. $NVDA
Revenue grew +106% Y/Y to $96.2B, a beat vs their own $91B guide.
Data Center revenue $89.0B, +117% Y/Y and now 92% of the total.
Gross margin held at 75.0%. Net income $59.7B. GAAP EPS $2.46.
Q3 guide $108B at the midpoint. Still assuming zero China data center compute.
The AI capex cycle remains intact.
ALT NVDA Q2 FY27 stacked revenue and P&L waterfall showing $96.2B revenue, $89B Data Center, $59.7B net income
Sean D. Emory retweeted
After a few sold-out drops and 3 million on the waitlist…
The full @cashapp Tags lineup is here to stay 🪄🖤💳
Sean D. Emory retweeted
Investing with Data 327 is out.
13 charts.
Burry disclosed puts on Nvidia and Palantir. Etched taped out Sohu with Meta in the pipeline. Samsung and SK Hynix both announced huge buybacks even with memory tight.
Stack is rearranging.
📩 investingwithdata.substack.c…
ALT Investing with Data Issue 327 cover: 13 Charts: Burry, Buybacks, and AI Squeeze.
Sean D. Emory retweeted
"Net interest ran at $827B through June of FY26 and is now the #2 spending category, ahead of Medicare and Defense, sitting only behind Social Security."
@_SeanDavid
Sean D. Emory retweeted
Tracking robotic tech hires for Omnicell.
9 openings in June. Trailing 6-month total is 41, up from 36 a year ago.
Postings for new technicians support the idea that Omnicell robots are seeing some acceleration YTD vs last year.
$OMCL
ALT Omnicell monthly automation technician job openings Nov 2024 to Jun 2026, trailing 6-month total rose from 36 to 41.
Sean D. Emory retweeted
"Since June 1, Kalshi is +185% and Polymarket is +180% on US mobile daily active users, both accelerating after the World Cup started on June 11 ... DraftKings is +65% and FanDuel is +22% over the same window, both fading after their peak."
@_SeanDavid
Sean D. Emory retweeted
muse spark 1.1 is ahead of gpt-5.6 on SciCode
SciCode is the standout: Muse Spark 1.1 ranks #3 across all models we have benchmarked at 58%, behind only Claude Fable 5 (60%) and Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (59%). Its 45% on Humanity's Last Exam sits within a point of Claude Opus 4.8 (max, 46%), a model five points ahead of it on the Intelligence Index.
Sean D. Emory retweeted
Newsletter is out. 12 charts and they tell us what's happening at Cash App, Kalshi vs DraftKings, Meta's AI, and some market rotation and opportunity.
Here's the newsletter:
investingwithdata.com/p/2063…
$XYZ $RBLX $DKNG $META
ALT Investing with Data Issue 323 cover
Sean D. Emory retweeted
Avory CIO on the $META AI Capex Debate : Is Zuckerberg Overspending, or Making the Bet of the Decade?
@_SeanDavid –– CIO & founder of Avory & Co. One of my go-to investors when I want to pressure-test a thesis. I live on earnings revisions and the Variant View checklist; Sean goes where the world is heading — products, competitive positioning, distribution.
We took opposite corners on the biggest question in tech: is Meta's AI spend a moat or a money pit?
"Don't bet against Zuckerberg."
We cover:
The bull vs bear on META's AI capex — is @finkd overspending, or building the moat of the next decade
Why distribution, not the model, is the most important strategic ground in AI — "the biggest distribution platform in the world" changes the ROI math on every dollar spent
Own your infrastructure vs rent it — "if you don't own your infrastructure, you run a lot of risk"
The equity-financing question — would Meta tap the market, and why that possibility spooks investors
How to underwrite a company spending through the P&L — near-term FCF vs long-term return
The one catalyst that actually flips sentiment on the stock
How Sean sizes a decade-long core holding and holds valuation discipline
The AI tools and workflows Sean runs inside the firm — and the "cognitive load" problem of modern research
Stocks: $META $NVDA $AMD $GOOGL $MSFT
*Not investment advice
Highlights:
(00:00) Intro — Sean Emory & Avory's approach
(03:14) Why Meta has been a core holding for a decade
(08:46) The capex strategy and where valuation sits
(11:01) Why distribution underwrites the AI spend
(14:50) Sean's outlook for hyperscaler capex
(16:28) Why owning AI infrastructure matters
(21:43) The equity-financing question and investor concerns
(23:26) Near-term FCF vs long-term returns
(26:34) What could flip sentiment on Meta
(32:14) Meta's model development and competitive positioning
(37:27) The AI tools Sean uses in his process
(44:36) Position sizing and valuation discipline
(52:51) Long-term FCF as capex stabilizes
Sean D. Emory retweeted
Meta may be close to deal with Anthropic to host private cloud compute. $META
Sean D. Emory retweeted
The market today:
✅ Buy a Mac mini to avoid paying cloud costs.
❌ Complain when $META spends billions to own its compute instead of renting it.
It’s the same idea, just at hyperscale.
Spoke about this yesterday go listen. youtu.be/H45DXaZXcJI?is=Etpx…
Sean D. Emory retweeted
nice call Sean!
His deep dive here:
youtu.be/nzBxGfE06aA?si=7U-p…