Random musings so I can look back & say "what was I thinking?"
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Joined September 2015
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Developed the sports PE market. Popularized that media rights are essentially bonds.
Completely vertically integrated Buffet. Invest premiums of Security Benefit into Fixed income (CBAM/Cain International) and into other long term equity plays bec of annuity time horizon.
Great nugget today- If SpaceEx with its dual class structure acquires Telsa, then Musk can get voting control of both companies forever. No more comp battles
This newsletter was not built right first time around, so is being rebuilt from the foundations up. bloomberg.com/opinion/newsle…
These are the dynamics of staying private forever (capturing majority of value in private market vs. public) + valuations far from fundamentals
We’re about to witness three of the largest IPOs in history. SpaceX is targeting $1.5t. OpenAI aims for $1t. Anthropic is valued at $380b. Combined, $2.9t in market cap.
The scale is unprecedented. But the real problem isn’t the market cap. It’s the float.
Typical IPOs offer 15-25% of their shares to public markets. This creates enough liquidity for price discovery while allowing founders & early investors to maintain control. Facebook floated 15%. Google floated 19%. Alibaba floated 15%.
At a 15% float, here’s what these three IPOs would require :
What happens when you play the vol then take it away?
This guy gets it. We’ve been saying same thing. Since BlackRock filing Bitcoin is up like 250% with much less volatility and no vomit-inducing drawdowns. This has helped it attract even bigger fish and gives it fighting chance to be adopted as currency. Downside is prob no more God Candles. Can’t have it all!
MRM retweeted
You Should Own Your Browser
The browser wars have begun again. But they're not browser wars, they're data wars. OpenAI and every large startup wants control. They want everything that makes you, you. Your data. Your access. Your identity. This is not the way. (1/10)
Yes, and just like the NBA lottery you need to lose a lot of games to have a chance to pick first?
Why cant a user prompt the @Spotify DJ @eldsjal? No text prompt or voice.
Please play songs similar to @3LAU or songs with lyrics similar to bend that corner @LiAngeloBall
interesting article Swiss Re/Waymo report. Auto insurance ~30% of written premiums. The dollar amount is huge $383bn in 2023. Far away from total autonomy but how do carriers respond. Shift from driver side liability to manufacturer/software side liability? Waymo Self insure?
Thoughts after spending too much time at Apple Store yesterday:
-Missed timing of Apple Intelligence with new iPhone release cycle
-Appears not to matter and features are underwhelming
-Less people upgrading iPhones, no major hit since AirPods, Vision Pro flop
"Most Apple, $AAPL, iPhone owners see little to no value in Apple Intelligence so far," per 9to5Mac.
Kingdom Holdings. MGX. will continue to be more relevant than ever. Great juxtaposition after listening to
@jaredkushner
