law student @berkeleylaw. fmr @iteptweets & @urbaninstitute. Ocean State expat.
Bay Area 🔁 DC
Joined April 2011
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Is it standard to purport to estimate effects 100+ years into the future? Or to overestimate migration elasticities by 25x? Or to attempt to predict the outcome of future legal challenges? The paper deviates sharply from convention when it benefits one side.
I highly recommend @BharatRamamurti’s interview with @DavidSGamage, a coauthor of the CA billionaire tax measure.
David explains the rationale for key design features, including the decision to structure the tax as a wealth tax rather than an income tax.
bharatramamurti.substack.com…
I mean, it also reduces the incentive for a DC business owner to list their residence in Miami (or Virginia), no? Of course there are incentives in both directions for both taxes—two sides of the same coin.
Not sure off the top of my head, but that doesn't sound crazy. Here's Fox & Liscow:
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.…
Perspective is helpful:
Even with the proposed 9.9% millionaire tax in Washington state, the richest would continue to contribute a much lower share of their income than the bottom 95%.
Washington state is on its way to enacting a millionaires’ tax.
The plan comes with significant boosts in public education and child care along with more revenue from the wealthiest households that have been paying the lowest tax rates in the state.
itep.org/washington-milliona…
DC already has the lowest property tax rates in the region and a highly effective property tax credit for low and middle income residents. A property tax freeze is not a good idea.
Nice to see two policies I've long encouraged RI's leaders to embrace—a higher top tax rate and a child tax credit.
The budget has positives and negatives, but these are two ideas worth doing. (And thanks @IanDonnis for giving a space to share those ideas over the years!)
New: @GovDanMcKee's Rhode Island state budget:
- 3% millionaires tax to raise $135M
- 2 cent gas tax rollback
- Child tax credit
- Social security tax phase out over 3 years
- Climate and energy programs curtailed to lower utility bills
providencejournal.com/story/…
Re: Political pressure, maybe congressional Democrats will fear messaging casting them as weak on the deficit? But recent Congresses have provided little legislative pushback to same-party president actions that significantly reduce revenue (see: student debt relief, gutting IRS)
If not from the legislative process, maybe the mechanism forcing a pay-for would come from the bond market or political pressures. But on the former, it seems notable that Treasury yields *rose* after Liberation Day.
Skeptical of this for a couple reasons. Maybe I'll be wrong. But: First, it presumes the Supreme Court will uphold the president's broad-reaching tariff power. That is very, very far from certain!
This quoted post is unavailable.
The 2011 reform bringing the official top rate to 5.99% from 9.9% was developed to be neutral *against the baseline of the fully phased-in 5.5% cap.* And it largely was.
In other words, it locked in the overall distributional & revenue effects of $100m+ top-end tax cuts 2006-11.
Functionally, the elective tax cap was a big tax cut for high-income residents: @tsgouros estimated it would cut taxes by over $100m annually when fully phased down to 5.5%.
And was explicitly sold as such!
Excellent, fair piece from @WheelerReporter on the tax debate in Rhode Island. The tiniest pet peeve, about what is now ancient history: The recited line below gets it all wrong. RI did, in fact, lock in significant tax cuts for high-income individuals.
providencejournal.com/story/…
And, by the way, just last year @GovDanMcKee proposed and lawmakers approved what works out to a 10% tax increase on those same high-end passthrough profits. This isn't a third rail that automatically zaps the economy if you touch it.
