I am a geologist and writer doing energy-related work. Energy is the economy so that covers economics, environment, geopolitics , ecology & human behavior
Houston, Texas
Joined March 2009
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The Tehran meeting reflects a new Gulf security reality after the US failed to protect maritime trade in 2026.
@Cosmos_politic sees Iran as the region's new master.
I see a disruptive power, not a regional superpower.
Saudi Arabia is adapting to US failure, not surrendering to Iran.
انتهى الاجتماع الرباعي في طهران بين تركيا وباكستان وإيران والسعودية.
لمن يتساءل عمّا حدث، فمن الواضح لي أن السعوديين ذهبوا إلى طهران حاملين عرضاً يتضمن تنازلات كبيرة للإيرانيين، مقابل التوسط لدى أنصار الله لوقف هجماتهم على السعودية، والحصول على ضمانات بإبقائها خارج نطاق الرد الإيراني في حال أقدمت الولايات المتحدة على قصف منشآت الطاقة الإيرانية.
ولكن إيران لن تقدم شيئاً ملموساً للسعودية إلا إذا تضمن العرض السعودي تنازلات استراتيجية حقيقية، تبدأ بسحب القواعد العسكرية الأمريكية من منطقة الخليج، وتنتهي ببناء تحالف أمني إقليمي تعترف فيه دول الخليج بسيادة إيران الكاملة على مضيق هرمز، وبحقها في نقض أي وجود عسكري أجنبي في الخليج.
باعتقادي، هذا الاجتماع عنوان لمرحلة جديدة في المنطقة، تتلخص باعتراف خليجي واضح بأن إيران أصبحت سيدتهم الجديدة، وأن عليهم التفاهم معها لضمان أمنهم واستمرار دولهم.
ولكن هنا تكمن المعضلة السعودية. فالسعوديون مطالبون بالتعقل والتفاهم مع إيران بما يضمن مصالحهم، بعيداً عن الأمريكيين، بينما هم في الحقيقة لا يمتلكون الاستقلال السياسي والعسكري الذي يسمح لهم باتخاذ مثل هذا القرار بحرية.
ولفهم هذه المعضلة، يكفي العودة إلى تاريخ الهند تحت الاستعمار البريطاني. فقد كانت هناك مئات الإمارات والممالك التي يحكمها الراجات والمهراجات والنواب، مثل حيدر آباد وكشمير. وكانت لهذه الممالك قصورها وحكامها وجيوشها وإداراتها الخاصة، وتبدو وكأنها دول مستقلة، بينما كانت بريطانيا تتحكم في علاقاتها الخارجية وتفرض عليها سيادتها العليا.
والأمر نفسه حدث في مصر بعد الاحتلال البريطاني عام 1882. فقد بقي الخديوي على عرشه، واستمرت الحكومة المصرية في ممارسة مهامها، ولكن القرار الحقيقي في القضايا الكبرى كان بيد البريطانيين.
وهكذا هي طبيعة العلاقة بين دول الخليج والولايات المتحدة. فالاستقلال الشكلي ووجود الحكومات والجيوش والأعلام لا يعني بالضرورة امتلاك السيادة الحقيقية، خصوصاً عندما تكون الدولة عاجزة عن اتخاذ قراراتها الأمنية والعسكرية الكبرى بمعزل عن إرادة القوة الأجنبية التي تعتمد عليها لحمايتها.
وهنا مأزق السعودية تحديداً. فهي تريد التفاهم مع إيران لإنقاذ نفسها من حرب قد تدمر منشآتها النفطية واقتصادها، ولكن هذا التفاهم سيصطدم بالضرورة بالمصالح الأمريكية، لأن ما تريده إيران يتعارض جذرياً مع استمرار الهيمنة العسكرية الأمريكية على الخليج.
السعودية عالقة بين نارين: نار إيرانية قد تحرق منشآتها النفطية إذا استمرت في الارتهان للأمريكيين، ونار أمريكية قد تواجهها إذا قررت الخروج عن إرادة واشنطن والتفاهم مع طهران.
والمشكلة أن السعودية أمضت عقوداً تبني أمنها على الحماية الأمريكية، لتجد نفسها اليوم أمام تحول هذه الحماية إلى السبب الذي يعرض وجودها للخطر.
Saudi oil exports have returned to near pre-war levels.
@JavierBlas suggests a “use-while-you-can” strategy ahead of escalation.
Perhaps.
But the petroleum system is organized to maximize energy flows within its constraints.
No special explanation is needed.
Saudi Arabia has been exporting crude so far this month at a rate that suggests the kingdom has lifted its oil production toward the 9-10 million b/d range.
Using both the Persian Gulf and (more importantly) the Red Sea, Riyadh has boosted crude exports during the first 22 days of October to >7 million b/d, reaching pre-war levels (see @Vortexa chart below). Adding clean and dirty refined product, the export flow Oct 1-22 reaches ~8.5m b/d, slightly below pre-war levels of >9m b/d.
The crude export surge -- and the production boost -- could be part of a "use-while-you-can" strategy aimed at pumping ahead of the potential restart of the war post US midterms (or before the Houthis of Yemen damage another key oil installation -- several near misses already in recent days, including an attack that killed two contractors near a major oilfield).
Note: using Oct 1-2 as typically it takes at least five days for dark transits across the SoH to become clear.
Price matters @clairefanfun1 but it is not a state-determining factor for the petroleum system
It is far more important to humans than to the system
That is because we view the world as predators
That is why the world system is so damaged
Markets want Lula to cut spending. The FT agrees.
But France shows the political cost of even modest austerity.
For voters already under economic pressure, fiscal discipline can look like betrayal.
Kicking the can may be politically rational—even if economically dangerous.
ft.com/content/79785581-88c2…
Brazil's selloff was investors unwinding a bad election bet, writes @elerianm
But the vote is information about Brazil itself.
Voters rejected Bolsonaro while strengthening conservatives in Congress.
That tells us something about political adaptation that markets may be missing.
The massive magnitude of today’s selloff in Brazilian assets is less about Brazil’s underlying outlook and more about just how confident—and wrong—the consensus view on finance was with respect to a Bolsonaro win.
#brazil #lula #bolsonaro
Nearly 12% of global refining capacity is offline from attacks and maintenance.
Trump blames Ukraine, but the problem is global.
Cheap drones and missiles are how warfare has evolved.
The distinction between refineries damaged by war and those closed for economic reasons is important
One is physical destruction; the other is an investment and profitability decision.
Blaming either obscures the larger failure of political leadership to manage the conflicts disrupting the global energy system.
wsj.com/business/energy-oil/…
Raskin warns oil companies that importing Russian diesel under Trump's deal with Putin would violate federal law.
The White House insists it's legal.
With diesel prices soaring, Trump's attempt to ease the energy crisis has become another political and legal battleground.
politico.com/news/2026/10/26…
The negotiations are real.
The $1 billion payment remains an uncorroborated Israeli media report.
A $1 billion reconstruction or salary arrangement is substantially different from paying the Houthis $1 billion to stop attacking Saudi Arabia.
Record oil volumes in transit are not a sign of normalization.
Longer routes, ship-to-ship transfers and bypasses mean oil spends more time at sea.
This reflects growing redundancy and inefficiency in the global petroleum system—not recovery.
CHART OF THE DAY: Oil in transit rises to an all-time high, per @Vortexa data. Several factors helping: 1) rising Middle East flows (SoH plus bypasses); 2) ship-to-ship operations keeping oil aboard tankers for longer; 3) lengthier routes as importers diversify away from MEast
You’re confusing accounting mechanisms with system outcomes @acidiclemon2
Blockchain records transactions.
TEQs could constrain energy consumption.
Neither demonstrates that an economy can successfully adapt to planned contraction.
Changing allocation rules changes incentives, but it doesn’t determine the emergent behavior of a complex system.
That’s the fundamental problem with degrowth:
confusing an intended outcome with a demonstrated one.
A blockchain is a distributed permissionless database.
Blockchains don't inherently have anything to do with money but they can be used to record money or other tokens, like TEQs.
Also the point of TEQs is that they're not supposed to be derivatives at all. Each TEQ is supposed to represent an allocation of energy.
You are focused on price @Baron_Lamarre
But price isn’t a flow or a stock in the petroleum system
You are not thinking systematically and that will lead to false observations
LINK
artberman.com/blog/the-petro…
Emissions is a global problem @dt8___
Breaking things into pieces and fragmented thinking is how we arrived at our predicament in the first place
Blaming some countries is childishly reductive
Mediation is not alliance membership, dude
Iranian assistance in developing Saudi nuclear warheads is speculation layered on speculation
The real story is moving away from US security dependence
BREAKING: According to Israeli intelligence sources, Pakistan has mediated on behalf of Saudi Arabia to bring Iran's Islamic regime into the Mecca Alliance, under which both countries will not only put an end to hostilities, but also protect each other from external threats.
The Iranian Islamic regime's membership in the Mecca Alliance could accelerate Saudi Arabia's domestic ballistic missile programs. Technology transfers provided by Iran's regime could enable Saudi Arabia to design, develop, and produce nuclear warheads for its ballistic missiles, posing an extensive threat to the State of Israel.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Officials from the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement countries (Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan) are meeting Iranian officials in Tehran to discuss de-escalation and regional security. This is not an effort to bring Iran into the alliance.
reuters.com/world/asia-pac…
aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/2…
Nonsense @acidiclemon2
Blockchain is a derivative of money which is a claim on energy & materials. TEQs are even farther from underlying reality
Derivatives of derivatives are the masturbation of the reductive mind.
The bet on AI’s effect on GDP reflects a reductive, predatory worldview that ignores the larger system of which both are parts.
People who focus on parts miss the relationships that determine the behavior of the whole.
There are never just two sides to a bet in a complex system.
@acidiclemon2 @gordonschuecker
Then perhaps GDP crashes by 10% and it needs to make +25% to reach +15% from the previous peak? The bet doesn't really care about what GDP is for and I get the critique, but it's like betting that next year I'll make $100k/year. Pretty objective. Either I make it or I don't. I could be selling drugs or curing cancer, it doesn't matter re the made bet.
You can't handle complexity @A_Eye_Bubble
That's your problem.
Time to live in the real world instead of what you look at on screens.
@grok i can't wrap my head around @aeberman12's repost. He often quotes SPR levels as if they do matter in some way? Yet at other times he argues that only comparative inventory
matter? And 2026 shows more evidence they do in his own post. Help me untangle these inconsistencies.
Reductive and irrelevant @red4treble
Nothing is the same in history but that doesn't change the reality that more than 2 years of lower inventories than today caused no crisis.
Learn to live with what is real & stop trying to manipulate it to fit your preferred bias.
Price Is Not the Petroleum System
We obsess over oil prices, but price is neither a stock nor a flow.
It influences decisions without defining the system’s purpose.
We keep trying to explain price through supply and demand.
Perhaps we should understand the system that produces it.
👇
artberman.com/blog/the-petro…
