Why smart people do irrational things with money. Market psychology, crypto manias and my own bad decisions, explained.
Joined February 2021
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The Sahil vs Ansem drama, summarized for normal people:
Sahil: posts screenshots
Ansem: “that’s not how I text”
Sahil: posts more screenshots
On-chain sleuths: open 47 tabs
Crypto Twitter: grabs popcorn
Retail, opening their portfolio: “that’s not how I invest either”
Jokes aside, here’s the uncomfortable part:
Whatever the truth turns out to be, most of us never asked “is this person paid?”
We only asked “can you make me money?”
Confidence isn’t evidence.
Who’s the loudest voice in your portfolio right now?
Which trading stat would you least want your friends to see?
A) Your real win rate
B) Your biggest single loss
C) How long you hold losers vs winners
D) How many coins you bought after they’d already pumped
No lying.
You weren't early. You were someone's exit.
Exfil.fun shows who's up, who's underwater, and who could sell into you before you buy.
Look at the hill first.
Alax retweeted
Good evening Rats!
2nd episode of the Hill series for solana:6FhVPctYg363pQbs4iSvqyHe2cJzfsvFD96gePy6pump @exfildotfun is now out.
exfil.fun
Finally a good trading app offers limit orders.
Exfil.fun is the name of the game
"We hired 200 KOLs based on a score on a website, did zero research on their audiences, and tried to sell $5 NFTs in 2026. Somehow, the problem is everyone else."
Well at least they got some engagement now, and yet nobody will care.
Crypto Twitter KOLs are a fucking scam. And we have the numbers to prove why.
We hired 200+ KOLs with 10M+ combined followers. Every single one had a 400+ Sorsa score and 100+ Smart Followers. Most had 1,000+ Sorsa.
200+ KOLs posted twice each.
Our result? 280 NFTs sold at $5.
Now let’s talk about this circus.
Fake views. Fake likes. AI-generated replies that don’t even understand what the project does. The same fucking accounts liking and replying to each other in engagement groups, recycling engagement and pretending they’re influential.
You have 200K followers but can’t prove you have actual buyers. You’re scared of referral deals because deep down you know nobody will click your links, buy anything or convert.
YOU HAVE BOTTED FOLLOWERS, NOT INFLUENCE.
And the funniest part? You genuinely think you’re marketing professionals. You’re a bunch of engagement farmers playing influencer, selling fake numbers to projects and calling it a career.
Our team tested this firsthand. We were ready to pay for influence, but got fucking nothing.
And you wonder why CT is dying? Why projects are cutting deals? Why marketing teams are moving to TikTok and Instagram?
BECAUSE NOBODY WANTS TO PAY FOR YOUR BULLSHIT ANYMORE.
Honestly, go work at McDonald’s. At least you’ll serve people something useful instead of selling projects fake engagement and pretending to be important.
200+ KOLs. 10M+ followers. 280 NFTs sold.
That’s your fucking influence.
Vapourware
From $deai to dead.
Alax retweeted
Umbrae v0.14.0 is live.
A sharper, more transparent trading surface on Base.
PLATFORM STATS
A new public stats page shows the whole platform at a glance — all-time and 24-hour volume, total value locked, fees, and trade count across our venues.
umbrae.io/app/stats
TRADE HISTORY
Every trade now shows both sides of the swap — what went in and what came out — with the dollar value at the time. Positions and fees are labeled by venue, so concentrated-liquidity and constant-product activity are easy to tell apart.
AUTOMATED REBALANCING
The keeper flow is smoother end to end: hand a concentrated-liquidity position to it and your range re-centers on the live price as the market moves. Automated rebalancing remains Ignis Elite only.
Mint at ignislabs.ai/mint, then lock on Umbrae: umbrae.io/app/lock
ALSO IN 0.14.0
Per-pair rebalance settings in a focused pop-out. Rebuilt guided walkthroughs that open a real position and step you through it. Clearer, more specific messages when an action can't go through.
Full notes: umbrae.io/app/changelog
Alax retweeted
Umbrae v0.13.0 is live.
The first sovereign DLMM on Base with native automated rebalancing.
Everywhere else, auto-rebalancing is a third-party vault wrapped around someone else's pools. Umbrae built both: the DLMM and the on-chain keeper that re-centers your liquidity for you.
AUTOMATED REBALANCING
Hand a concentrated-liquidity position to the Umbrae keeper and it re-centers on the live price as the market moves. Your range follows the market on its own, so your liquidity keeps working without manual management. You prepay a small gas balance that covers each rebalance, and you can withdraw your position at any time.
TAKE-PROFIT / STOP-LOSS
Set a target or a floor and the keeper closes the position for you when price reaches it.
ACCESS — IGNIS ELITE ONLY
Automated rebalancing is for Ignis Elite NFT holders only. Don't have one yet? Mint an Ignis Elite NFT at ignislabs.ai/mint, then lock it on Umbrae to switch rebalancing on: umbrae.io/app/lock
ALSO IN 0.13.0
Live profit-and-loss on every position row. Shareable performance cards. Drag-to-set range and a dilatable price axis on the create chart. A graded liquidity depth map with dollar labels on the busiest bins.
Full notes: umbrae.io/app/changelog
Alax retweeted
BREAKING NEWS FROM PARAGUAY HQ: MORPHWARE EXPANDS POWER SALES WITH NEW CLIENT!
We did it again. We’ve signed another client to a major energy contract for the next two years.
They will purchase $6,700,000 worth of energy per year from us. Over the two-year term, that adds $13,400,000 in revenue to the project. Over the same 24 months, we will also allocate $1,340,000 toward purchasing new miners.
We keep building. $XMW
The story of $U1
What happens when Meteora’s DLMM playbook launches on Base?
Some stats for $Met
• ~$600M daily volume
• ~$400M+ annualized fees
• Solana only
• No Base exposure
Umbrae $U1
• First DLMM on Base
• Multi-chain Base + Solana
• Fixed 5M supply
• 5% of all fees to holders
• Up to 35% via NFT equity
• Backed by Hashlock security
• AI-driven liquidity + lower fees
Base has curently no DLMM.
Aerodrome isn’t one nor is Uniswap V3
Meteora proved the model works.
Umbrae is exporting it to an untouched base market.
Millions programmed.
$AVICI is using the right playbook by focussing on community first instead of throwing tokens out of the window.
Reward: a new daily ATH in users using the app.
Neobank of the future when regulations dont hit them to hard.
$XPL?
Since TGE it’s been pure frustration, token going straight to 0.
Do Kwon would be proud from prison.
Neobank? Another fairytale story being destroyed by a greedy team.
Content creation on x reaches insane levels of absurdity.
There are now content creator guides on how to improve your "GM" ppst routine.
X algorithm creates a new kind of slaves.
My christmas wishlist is verymodest.
How about a juicy close the year buyback of $xmw.
Letter send to @mediumtension
$SOLV didn’t climb into the top tier of liquid staking revenue by luck.
It did it by playing a different game.
The big players win on size.
Solv wins by plugging liquid staking into a wider onchain Bitcoin reserve system that produces real yield, not the usual looped incentives everyone else hides behind.
Pulling in $2.3M in 30-day revenue tells you everything.
People aren’t just trialing the product.
They’re parking capital because the engine actually delivers.
And when the market finally rotates back to sustainable yield and real cashflow, only the protocols with built-in revenue machines are going to make it.