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Smart-money flow, decoded
Joined November 2021
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🏆 the conviction board. live options flow — calls and puts, ranked 0-100 on 8 factors. 🔥 options returns after the board fired: $AAPL → +3,336%
$ASTS → +1,040%
$CRWV → +956%
$NBIS → +540% full log (wins AND losses) public. ✅ free · no signup · no email 👉 algoxflow.com/conviction
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THE 14 BIGGEST EARNINGS BETS THIS WEEK Tiered by the move options are actually pricing: HIGH (12-14%) - APP, PS ELEVATED (9-12%) - ALAB, DDOG, SHOP, NET, TSEM MODERATE (under 9%) - XYZ, ON, ANET, EW, QCOM $APP is priced to move 12.7% in one session.
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$65.4M of net options premium sold in $AMZN today. Premium leaving all session. Worth knowing before you read the chart as strength.
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Reporting Thu, and what options are pricing: $ASX ±10.8% PWR ±10% LYG ±8% SYK ±7.2% INTC ±6.9% We measured 2,422 of these. Options overpriced the move 57% of the time.
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Intel stock plunges 16% as chipmaker blames PC slowdown for weak guidance $INTC 74.37, above its 61.46 gamma flip. Dealers absorb moves up here.
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THE 15 BIGGEST EARNINGS BETS THIS WEEK Tiered by the move options are actually pricing: EXTREME (14%+) - LSCC HIGH (12-14%) - APP, PS ELEVATED (9-12%) - ALAB, DDOG, SHOP, TSEM, COHR MODERATE (under 9%) - ON, ANET, EW, QCOM, ITUB $LSCC is priced to move 14% in one session.
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Most dealer gamma in the market right now: 1. $IWM +$1967M 2. SPY -$1526M 3. QQQ -$1316M 4. TSLA +$385M 5. AMD +$95M Positive means dealers absorb moves. Negative means they feed them.
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Biggest sweep on the tape right now: $MRVL 220 PUT 2026-11-20 $2.8M in premium Bought at the ask — someone paid up to get filled now rather than wait.
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$GOOG — our read, and what the crowd thinks: Spot 281.14 · flip null · call wall 277.5 The bars are what the other side is forced to hedge. That's the part we actually trade off.
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Calls vs puts in today's 8 biggest options prints: Calls: $1.4M across 3 prints Puts: $2.4M across 5 prints Largest: $GOOGL 280C for $1.0M. Positions, not confirmed direction. The feed doesn't say who's buying or selling.
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$AMD over 5 years. Buy the close, sell the open: 276.82% Buy the open, sell the close: 19.66% Buy and hold: 350.88% The move happens while the market is shut. Not a strategy, spreads eat it, but that is where it lives.
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$927k OF PUTS HIT IBKR TODAY The biggest options bets on the tape: CALLS BOUGHT (bullish bets) - DELL, RRC PUTS BOUGHT (bearish bets) - IBKR, GOOGL, GOOG, MSFT, LITE Size is conviction. It is not intent.
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HSBC upgrades FedEx to buy, raises PT to $370 $SPY 768.51, above its 652.55 flip. Hedging fades the move.
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Biggest sweep on the tape right now: $CRWD 257.5 CALL 2028-01-21 $1.3M in premium Bought at the ask — someone paid up to get filled now rather than wait.
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Biggest moves the options market is pricing into 2026-10-30: 1. $CRWV ±3.6% 2. META ±1.64% 3. TSM ±1.56% 4. QQQ ±0.92% 5. SPY ±0.55% That's the straddle, not a forecast. It's what you're paying for.
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4 of 6 closed green today. $NBIS 190C-10/30 -34% AAPL 355C-10/30 +28% SPY 770C-10/29 +30% RKLB 59C-10/30 +33% GOOGL 292.5C-10/30 +33% Entry and exit both posted live. Reds included — that's the point.
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$NOW — our read, and what the crowd thinks: 112.5 now — zero-gamma flip at null, wall overhead at 114. Below null, hedging feeds moves instead of fighting them. That's why we'd rather wait than chase.
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$DIA — 522.17 Put wall 515. Call wall 530. Which one gets touched first? 👇
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$TSM over 5 years. Buy the close, sell the open: 370.29% Buy the open, sell the close: -18.98% Buy and hold: 281.03% The move happens while the market is shut. Not a strategy, spreads eat it, but that is where it lives.
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$84.1M of net options premium sold in $GOOGL today. Premium leaving all session. Worth knowing before you read the chart as strength.
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QQQ at 713.66: no clean flip, put wall 710, call wall 725. The whole day in one picture.
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