Clay Alter (@alter_clay) profile picture

Prediction market trader

Joined November 2021
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Slow mo it seems clear he didn’t get this off. ESPN showed 74-70 for awhile now 74-72. Holding under 144.5 on Kalshi
Slowing the footage down from the ending of the Notre Dame vs Villanova game, you can see that Simmons didn't get the ball off before time expired. It was close though.
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What is Indiana doing with their timeouts. What are the announcers even saying. Makes no sense to give yourself no time on a make or miss
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Marcus Jones questioning himself after everyone else on the field thinks they recovered a fumble is how I feel when I put a big order in at 99 and it gets filled instantly. I know I’m right but wait am I right…
Ross Tucker was all over this not being a fumble in the Patriots-Bills game:
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Washington state down 10 on fourth and 4 went for it at the 25. Worst coaching decision I’ve seen yet.
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Inside the disaster sequence by the Jets at the end of regulation: Jets could have and should have called timeout at 1:01 left and the Packers facing 4th and 5 at the +45. By doing so, the Jets force the Packers to make a decision with 1:01 left, which almost certainly would have been to punt. The average starting field position after a punt from that field position is roughly the 12 yard line. A touchback occurs ~16% of the time which would put you at the 20. For simplicity, assume the Jets have the ball from their own 12 with 51 seconds left and a timeout. One key point here is the Packers only had 2 timeouts remaining, which makes a big difference. The Jets could have run the ball on 1st down and seen what they got. If it went nowhere, they would have the ability to take the clock to 0:00 if needed because the Packers could only stop the clock twice. By not calling timeout, the Jets allowed the Packers to run the clock all the way down to 21 seconds before a delay of game. The clock decay helps one team or the other here, and in this case it clearly helps the Packers. Now comes the next clear mistake by the Jets. Once the delay of game occurred, the Jets could have and should have stopped the clock. By not electing to do so, Green Bay was able to run the clock down to 2 seconds to get a free chance at a Hail Mary. The Jets needed to stop the clock at 21 seconds to force the punt and then take it to overtime. Green Bay would not have been able to run that Hail Mary with 21 seconds. The situation was so chaotic I actually think the Packers missed an opportunity here too. Packers could have called timeout with ~8-9 seconds, tried to get the first down on 4th and 10, and if so called timeout and attempted a game winning field goal. The Packers have had a great long yardage pass offense with Love. If they failed, the Packers would have to defend one play from the ~50. Another Packers option is Trey Smack attempting a ~68 yard field goal with 2 seconds left. For some teams that would have clearly been the best option. Ultimately, this game management by the Jets was objectively incorrect in both of these instances, and the fact it sounds like they did not even talk about it on the headset is beyond alarming.
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I cannot believe the jets didn’t use a timeout just now. Horrible coaching
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Could of had 50 seconds and two timeouts instead they go straight to overtime. Matt lafleur also just a chance to win. Totally out coached
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Captivating episode. @rxgamble so well spoken and @goldenpants013 and @Sports__Proj really put in the time to prep and come up with good questions. Appreciate the dedication to producing a quality weekly podcast even during the start of football season.
This week @Sports__Proj and I have an AP legend on the pod: @rxgamble Besides winning at counting, hole carding, edge sorting, slots, poker and sports (!!), Gina has an amazing new biography coming out that is being turned into a show by @HBO . Questions in the comments plz!
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Well we have our answer. Have one guy be about to win so you can buy in super cheap. I’ve told Kalshi multiple times about this. Horrible for users to get scammed over and extremely easy to identify.
Replying to @Landtrader8375
Haha that would be funny. This is the matchup. They threw a doubles match together (possible Kukasian wasn’t in on it) and osminkin has thrown two other matches since. Seems very likely a fix might be in tonight
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And have him go up a break in set 3 too. Makes sense.
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Two match fixers face off tonight in tennis. What’s the optimal strategy as the one fixing the match and coordinating both players? I’d think obligatory three set affair and probably as many final set breaks as possible?
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🤣 are these bots or real people?
Replying to @alter_clay
Hey bud so low key what she pays every quarter for taxes is what you make in the entire year! Shhhhhhh....
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Simply bet both sides to show huge tickets and have a female profile pic and people can’t wait to donate money to you.
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Sheesh the entire Sophia army is after me
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I forgot how tilting college football is. The number of coaches doing the most egregious of blunders is mind blowing. Tonight we have Memphis running hurry up offense while up 6 with 5 minutes left.
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Kalshi comms director quote tweeted this guy 6 days later. If it fits the narrative use any random Twitter comment.
We will say it again. Netflix had a chance to make a genuinely interesting documentary about prediction markets. Instead, they made a sensationalized film that had a clear agenda. The people they interviewed are not a representation of who trades. You don't have to take our word for it.
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2 trades and up 2.55M.
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That’s not me.
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Thanks for having me on. Enjoyed the conversation with both of you!
New Episode out where @Sports__Proj and I interview top Kalshi Trader @alter_clay Clay has made over $1.2M in 2026 on Kalshi alone w/ 100% manual trading. Great listen - check out the episode links below ⬇️
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Someone explain to me how anyone but Kalshi trading is cool accepting .1 cent spreads. Are institutional market makers not only not paying fees but getting a % of taker fees?
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