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so i have been in the sf tech scene for a couple of months now, and i learned the games that ppl play
1. land a $3M lab order in 2 weeks, *26 = ~$80m as the annual revenue
2. schedule all orders to be signed in the same month, and multiply the best month by 12
3. sign $5M LOIs with friend's companies and batchmates. they sign one back (also happens at scale with large labs/compute)
4. buy github stars at 6 cents each
the last company that swapped invoices with a partner reported $220M - and it's bankrupt now
sad that it's a whole gresham's law game right now and if you dont play you just get downvoted
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so i have been in the sf tech scene for a couple of months now, and i learned the games that ppl play
1. land a $3M lab order in 2 weeks, *26 = ~$80m as the annual revenue
2. schedule all orders to be signed in the same month, and multiply the best month by 12
3. sign $5M LOIs with friend's companies and batchmates. they sign one back (also happens at scale with large labs/compute)
4. buy github stars at 6 cents each
the last company that swapped invoices with a partner reported $220M - and it's bankrupt now
sad that it's a whole gresham's law game right now and if you dont play you just get downvoted
October 17–18, 2026: Japan approved TSMC's plan to produce 3nm chips at its second Kumamoto fab, expected to begin operations by the end of 2028. Initial planned output is 6,000 wafers per month, with final capacity tied to government subsidies
October 4, 2026: Reporting on Japanese local governments courting Taiwanese semiconductor companies said ASE Group, the world's largest chip packaging and testing company, was considering entering Kitakyushu.
Pay attention …
October
Gudeng - Opened its first U.S. manufacturing facility in Glendale, Arizona, with a $5 million investment. The initial plant supports semiconductor and aerospace component manufacturing and is expected to create more than 30 jobs.
The Arizona Commerce Authority also opened a Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in Phoenix in October 2026, following the opening of a Taiwan Trade & Investment Center in May, to support Taiwanese firms establishing U.S. operations
July
Cica-Huntek Chemical Technology - Completed and activated its Phoenix facility after investing approximately $8 million in a specialized plant for chemical delivery systems used in semiconductor manufacturing.
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Robotics founders need to burn thoughtfully.
Venture funding in Robotics has grown by over 400% over the last 2 years.
Actual installations of robotics is up <25% YoY.
Robotics is not AI. The diffusion will be slower for a while and your underlying metrics will need to catch up to the valuation at some point.
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$PSI - Trades 2, 3, 4, and 5 each arrived at a critical pivot. #1 arrived today. If the pattern continues, we should see a bounce in semis in the near future.
Implications for $SOXX, $SMH, $SOXL, $SOXS
HOWEVER **
Complicating matters is that the Leopold Liquidation Zone in $SMH ($541-$549) finally breached after numerous tests leaving price below a very large zone of concentrated institutional activity. In simpler terms, price is below local support.
Now $PSI is much more evenly balanced among its holdings, with $NVDA only comprising about 4% of the fund whereas $SMH is about 19% $NVDA. So they two ETFs can diverge to some degree depending on how $NVDA performs.
$117.88 is the level to watch for bias on $PSI for the next few sessions. Longs unsafe below it.
volumeleaders.com/register
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What this tells us on what to expect: human digital fusion
Anti Fund lists Merge as a 2025 seed investment and explicitly describes it as: “Brain-computer interfaces.”
And Anti Fund’s own September 2026 manifesto puts Merge under “biology” while describing its broader thesis as the transition from digital intelligence toward automation of the physical world
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It’s pretty obvious once you reflect on Jake’s physical transformation starting in 2019.
The pentagon has long asked: “can an individual be deliberately optimized and then turned into a high-output platform?” And folks like @mkoeris are well acquainted with the experiments done in Europe in the early 1900s
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BREAKING: Multiple Russian Il-76 military cargo aircraft have landed at Bushehr Air Base in southern Iran to begin the evacuation of all Russian personnel from the nearby Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant ahead of military escalation, per initial reports and local sources.
The flights are also delivering weapons.
The last time Russia's Rosatom evacuated personnel at the plant was on February 28, the day the war started, removing 94 people in a single day.
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⚠️🇺🇸Washington is now treating oil refining as defence.
Trump signed a memo declaring US petroleum production and refining essential to national defence.
It opens Defense Production Act money for oil projects, pipelines and fuel storage.
The problem is capacity.
US refineries are already running almost flat out: about 98% nationally in September, and 96% on the Gulf Coast in October.
The money is small.
Congress set aside $ 1bn of DPA funding for energy last year.
Kinder Morgan’s share of just two new gas pipelines is $ 4.7bn.
The first test case is Delek’s 74,000 b/d refinery in Tyler, Texas, though no expansion size has been given.
A proposed 168,000 b/d refinery in Brownsville, backed by India’s Reliance, could be next.
Refiners have told the White House a new refinery takes years to build.
This is a policy for the 2030 diesel market.
Voters go to the polls in 12 days and pay today’s prices.
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JEFFERIES DESK:
“.. in the last 10 days, we’ve been net for sale in Tech to the tune of > $1B on 7 of those days.
.. And for reference, here’s our net trading flows over a 20D period, one of the more dramatic net selling periods we’ve seen in Tech in recent years.”
