NFL & CFB projections, draft analytics, and Rev Share/NIL modeling for @TheAthletic. The game isn't played on a spreadsheet — but it helps to have one. 📊
Joined July 2011
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The Bills are sitting at 16% to win the Super Bowl in The Athletic Playoff Simulator — the highest of any team.
Is this finally the year they get past the Chiefs?
The Seahawks also closed the gap on the 49ers, while the Browns are only at 48% to make the playoffs despite being 5-2.
Full updated odds are here:
Austin Mock retweeted
We've added a bracket page to our playoff forecast showcasing where each team expects to land if they make the playoffs and what the chances of that are.
nytimes.com/athletic/interac…
Opponent-adjusted EPA will give you a better view on who is actually performing well.
• The gap from the Vikings #1 defense to the #2 Seahawks is the same as the Seahawks to #8 Falcons
• Similarly, the same is true for the Bills' #1 offense compared to #2 49ers and #8 Lions
• There aren't many well rounded teams — Jaguars and Rams have the best case
Does this change your opinion on any team?
I keep waiting for the Eagles to turn it around on defense but it just isn’t happening. Weird year for the entire squad but I really thought the defense would be top-10.
It’s truly amazing that the Dallas defense is in the same league as Minnesota.
How is that possible?
Dan Campbell gets it. A simple risk/reward calculation that many are not willing to maximize.
#Lions HC Dan Campbell explains why he went for it on fourth down from his own 24 with the game tied:
“I know what you’re conceding, but I also know without any doubt that we’re getting the ball back with plenty of time to answer and rebut whatever they’ve done. It was really that simple."
My model’s most likely outcome: 4 SEC teams in the College Football Playoff (46%).
Georgia 85%
Alabama 70%
LSU 63%
Texas 57%
Kentucky 42%
Ole Miss 36%
A 7-1 Kentucky ahead of Ole Miss is the number that I'm sure will go over well.
NFL playoff odds here:
nytimes.com/athletic/interac…
Lions over the Packers is a bigger deal for the NFC North than you think.
I had Detroit projected more favorably than the Packers to begin the day — now the Lions are 73% to make the playoffs, Packers 41%.
Updated playoff odds are live in the Athletic simulator:
The Athletic Playoff Simulator here:
nytimes.com/athletic/interac…
Giants and JJ McCarthy just took care of business in Houston — 27-21 in OT to move to 4-2-1 and stay alone atop the NFC East.
That win bumped their playoff odds to 51%.
Full playoff picture with The Athletic’s Playoff Simulator.
Full playoff odds here:
nytimes.com/athletic/interac…
