amysup

📺 THE MARKET IS BREAKING AND I'M NOT BUYING THE DIP + $SPY / $QQQ MORE DOWNSIDE AHEAD? + WHY I'M 98% IN CASH The stock market is deteriorating much faster than the major indices suggest. While the S&P 500 was recently just 1% below its highs, the average S&P stock was already down roughly 18%, and many momentum names had collapsed 50%–70%. The damage beneath the surface has been enormous, yet the indices haven't experienced a meaningful correction. So why rush to buy the dip? * $SPY: The 8/21-Day Breakdown Changes Everything Following the hotter-than-expected CPI report, $SPY broke through critical support at $775, $773, and $771, losing both its 8-day and 21-day moving averages. Selling accelerated toward $766–$767, bringing #SPY to a test of its 50-day moving average. The remarkable part? Despite the carnage in growth stocks, SPY is only now testing its 50-day. That's how disconnected the major indices have become from the broader market. * $QQQ: A Failed Breakout Turns Into a Selloff $QQQ recently appeared ready to break higher from an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. But the breakout failed when #QQQ couldn't hold $749. What followed was a rapid reversal from an extended position above the 8-day toward the 50-day, all within approximately one week. Now the key downside levels to watch are $726.39 and potentially $721, where a gap-fill opportunity could develop. This is how quickly risk can accelerate when market momentum breaks. * When growth and momentum stocks lose their 8-day and 21-day moving averages, you don't blindly buy the dip. Many former leaders broke below their 21-day months ago and are now trading beneath their 200-day moving averages. Weak markets produce failed bounces, lower highs, and lower lows. Just because a stock is down 50% doesn't mean it's cheap or ready to recover. Respect the trend. Protect your capital. * My T3 trading accounts are now approximately 95%–98% in cash. I'm not interested in forcing trades while the market continues breaking down. The market oscillator is already around -48, signaling oversold conditions. But oversold doesn't mean the bottom is in. I'd rather wait for more extreme readings, potentially near -70, and a broader S&P correction exceeding 5% before aggressively deploying capital. At that point, I may look at selling puts, buying calls, or taking advantage of tactical rebounds. For now, cash provides flexibility, protects against further downside, and preserves buying power for better opportunities. * So, the market is breaking beneath the surface, $SPY and $QQQ have lost critical technical support, and failed rallies continue to warn of further weakness. You don't have to catch every bounce. Sometimes the best trade is no trade. The goal isn't to buy the first dip. It's to preserve enough capital to capitalize when the next high-probability opportunity finally arrives. * If you found this helpful, please ❤️like and 🔁retweet