
cmo @islolabs + @incredibuild | full time realist part time cynic
Joined March 2007
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There was never any good old days
They are today, they are tomorrow
It's a stupid thing we say
Cursing tomorrow with sorrow
— @GogolBordello
They need something in latent space to attach to
Not much different from us
Listen to @dotpem
So much fretting from scientists and researchers is just about not wanting to acknowledge that they were a cog in a brute-forcing machine moving very slowly through time.
Why would society choose to be limited by their (or mine or yours) time, if we didn't have to be?
Market has always punished spend on cost centers, rewarded shipping bad software + not fixing.
Bad software has much better margins than good software.
If you’re beholden to that structure, your product + customers are sitting ducks.
Until there’s an ideological break.
Replying to @saranormous
7/ The fix side has to run at swarmy machine speed too. Engineer attention is the scarce input, so the design question is where a human actually changes the outcome. Agents reproduce, patch, test and ship. Engineers should see the smol handful of cases that need a judgment call.
Aneel ✊🏽 retweeted
We are releasing our first model, Flint, a best-in-class local OSS coding model that runs at 150+ tokens/s on an @nvidia DGX Spark and 125+ tokens/s on a MacBook Pro M4—developed from scratch in less than four months with help from @Recursive_SI's autoresearch system.
Introducing Flint, @Recursive_SI’s first model: a fast local coding model built with our automated research system, the Eureka Machine.
• Best-in-class fast local coding
• Up to 2x faster than comparable models: 125+ tokens/sec on a MacBook Pro, 150+ on RTX Spark
• Built from scratch in under 4 months
Private, unmetered intelligence on your own machine. Open weights available now on @huggingface, run it locally on your favorite framework or try it for free on @opencode or @pidotdev.
Moderate-to-generational wealth created in one group. Everyday luxuries explode in price to serve just them.
The occasional nice restaurant reservation? The rare flight upgrade? Totally out of reach.
The people who used to be able to afford those things are gonna be mad.
The treats, the formerly affordable luxuries, is how people cope with their situations.
It's what makes middle class __feel good__.
If valuations require diffusion past stable countries and economies, they’re gonna be in for a rough time
Dusting off this tweet from April because this gap in shared understanding of LLM capability is *widening*. It's now less "two groups of people speaking past each other" and more a sharp funnel.
- Napkin math somewhere around 6B people (~75% of the population) have barely come in contact with LLMs at all.
- Around 1-2B (~20%) are casual and infrequent users of free-tier ChatGPT-like products. This group sees derpy chatbots and treats them a bit like a better Google search, a writing aid, or etc. Maybe an agent tries to book you a flight. I have non-tech friends who (reasonably, imo) say they have not much use for it at all. Even many professionals outside of math&code are in this tier. For example, execs and many other functions spend a lot of their time talking to other people, so while they understand what is happening intellectually, it is still second-hand and a bit abstract.
- Now we get to professional use of frontier-grade LLMs in math&code. Somewhere around 20M people (0.2%) see first-hand that large, complex projects that used to take them weeks/months can now be completed by agents with a prompt. Building apps, copying apps, translating apps, decompiling apps from binaries... This has all happened very quickly and recently - less than 1 year ago, I was writing code manually by hand, typing memorized computer code commands into a code editor character by character, occasionally pressing Tab to autocomplete a little chunk of code.
- And finally we get to the ~5,000 people (~0.00006%) with access to frontier-grade systems internally. The external world has seen the preview. It looks like swarms of thousands of agents collaborating over weeks on software mega projects: minting zero days, running cyber attacks and defenses at machine speeds, discovering new science, advancing the frontier of mathematics. Things that would have taken top professionals in the industry years of work. Meanwhile, human review and comprehension are starting to fall behind. For example, people are still involved in the "archeology" of the OpenAI-HF incident from many months ago. Mathematicians may be poring over the 722 manuscripts on frontier mathematics for a while.
The funnel is driven by a combination of factors:
1. The impact scales with ambition, problem size, and horizon. A question with a paragraph answer barely stresses the system. You need a reservoir of big, difficult problems that you really care about. This aspect drives the consumer / professional dimension of the funnel.
2. The jaggedness of the system (which I have written about a lot separately). Capability peaks in domains that are digital, verifiable and economically valuable. This is because LLM capability emerges from reinforcement learning on verifiable rewards on a curated environment mixture driven by revenue potential. This aspect primarily drives the area (e.g. math&code) dimension of the funnel.
3. Access. Free-tier, paid-tier, internal.
So this is the weirdness of the moment. The general public has mostly not interacted with these systems. When they have, it looks like a derpy chatbot. The majority of professionals still see only a modest uplift. And a small sliver of professionals are experiencing the vertigo of the curve going vertical. And it is all happening at the same time.
Most first time founders, maybe multi-time too, would never hire this person, when faced with them in real life
The ego can’t permit it
They could only deal with someone who functioned as an obsequious amplifier masquerading as a “thought partner”













