Been playing with some numbers for tomorrow's pupkins raffle There are 2k Gen 0 Boxes, but only 1.8k will be available through the raffle, with 2 Pupkins each To participate you need to deposit robinhood:0x42afa2124ca5a2b83898e46b2da9a190995b1e18, there's no limit on tickets and losing entries get refunded Moku hasn't confirmed the amount per ticket yet, but they used 10k SCHIFFY as an example, so let's work with that At the current ~$4.2M mcap, that's around $42.50 per ticket With ~990M SCHIFFY in existence, the absolute maximum number of tickets would be 99k And that's assuming literally every token in existence gets deposited, including liquidity, treasury and everything already sitting in people's wallets lol Realistically, the available supply is much smaller SCHIFFY currently has around $256k in GLD liquidity in its main pool So what happens if people start buying SCHIFFY for tickets? Let's play with a few hypothetical scenarios: $100k in demand ~2.35k tickets at today's price ~23.5M SCHIFFY Theoretical mcap: ~$8.1M (1.9x) $500k ~11.76k tickets ~117.6M SCHIFFY Theoretical mcap: ~$36.6M (8.7x) $1M ~23.53k tickets ~235.3M SCHIFFY Theoretical mcap: ~$101M (24x) $2M ~47.06k tickets ~470.6M SCHIFFY Theoretical mcap: ~$326M (78x) $5M ~117.65k tickets ~1.18B SCHIFFY 119% of the entire supply (!!!) Theoretical mcap: ~$1.77B (422x) Yes, at today's price, $5M worth of tickets would require more SCHIFFY than actually exists lol The ticket numbers assume today's fixed price, while the mcap estimates use a simplified constant-product AMM model with no selling or liquidity changes The actual pool uses concentrated liquidity, so the price impact would be different But we're talking about a ~$4.2M token with only ~$256k on the GLD side of its main pool Even relatively small amounts of net buying pressure could have a pretty significant impact on its valuation And remember, we're talking about just 1.8k Boxes How much SCHIFFY has already been accumulated for the raffle? How many people are planning to buy once it opens? How much of the supply is actually available for sale at these prices? There's also the fact that tickets require a fixed amount of SCHIFFY, not USD At different market caps, those same 10k SCHIFFY would cost: $4.2M mcap: ~$42 $10M mcap: ~$101 $20M mcap: ~$202 $50M mcap: ~$505 $100M mcap: ~$1,010 Same ticket, completely different dollar cost And any SCHIFFY deposited into the raffle is temporarily committed until the draw, with losing entries refunded afterward Of course, not everyone participating needs to buy new tokens. Some people have already accumulated their SCHIFFY, and others will sell into demand But the question is how much new buying pressure this raffle could generate relative to the available liquidity Only 1.8k Boxes, a theoretical maximum of 99k tickets, and a token sitting at ~$4.2M mcap What happens if $500k, $1M or even $2M in net buying pressure shows up? How high would SCHIFFY need to go before enough holders are willing to sell? We'll see what @Moku_HQ and @schiffygld surprise us with