Archana S. Awasthi

$APP forgot to add the chart

$IGV was looking better in the premarket. $PANW had an upgrade Was watching software stocks. $APP gave my set-up. Reversal from yesterday's close and low. Enter near VWAP and decide your exit

$AMAT beat on revenue and EPS. Here’s how the call answered my pre-earnings questions: • January guide beat the Street. Adjust for the extra week and total revenue per week dips ~1%, while Semiconductor Systems rises ~1%. Display drove most of the decline. • DRAM and advanced packaging hit records. AMAT sees wafer-fab equipment demand growing >30% in 2027, with HBM and leading-edge logic still strong. The open question is when customer cleanrooms will be ready to take the tools. • China sales grew 35% YoY even as their share fell to 25%. Management expects that share to fall further in 2027. The dollar impact of the Affiliates Rule remains unquantified. • Adjusted gross margin beat the prior guide and is guided to 50.8% for January. Next test: can tool shipments accelerate and margins hold near 51% when the extra week drops out?

$AMAT Q4 pre-earnings | The extra week matters. The Street expects $10.30B in Q4 revenue (+51% YoY) and $4.06 adjusted EPS (+87%), both slightly above management’s guide midpoints. FY27 consensus already assumes ~37% revenue growth and ~46% EPS growth. What I’m watching on the call 1. January guide. Consensus is $10.83B. That’s +5% QoQ on the headline, but ~2% lower per week because January has 14 weeks. It takes ~$11.1B to hold weekly revenue flat. 2. DRAM, HBM and leading-edge logic. DRAM equipment revenue, including HBM packaging, rose 52% YoY last quarter. How much 2027 growth comes from new DRAM wafer capacity, HBM packaging and advanced logic? When will the cleanrooms be ready for those tools? 3. China. China was 26% of combined Systems and Services revenue last quarter. How much 28nm demand is being pulled forward, and what’s exposed if the BIS Affiliates Rule takes effect in January? Does management still expects it to grow from here? 4. Margins. The Q4 guide implies ~13% sequential revenue growth with adjusted gross margin around 50.4%, roughly flat. I want to hear what’s driving that mix and whether component costs are rising. A Q4 beat would be welcome. The bigger test is whether the January guide holds up per week and management puts dates on the 2027 shipment ramp.

$NBIS Q3: What changed after earnings 1. FY26 plan and Q4 hurdle. My preview estimated Q4 needed ~$1.1–1.5B to hit the original FY26 revenue range. Management now sees FY26 revenue near $3B, implying ~$1.04B in Q4, up ~6% QoQ. The ~40% FY26 adjusted EBITDA margin target held. 2. December billing capacity. September ARR rose to $6.4B from $3B in June. The December $7–9B target shifted to a February target of more than $7B. Exactly how much GPU capacity will be billable in December remains open. 3. Microsoft’s Vineland delivery. Nebius expects to deliver more than half of Microsoft’s contracted capacity by year-end. The remaining tranches moved to Q2 ’27 as the site switches to permanent power. The contract remains in place. Formal customer acceptance dates are still open. 4. Capex and prepayments. FY26 capex rose from $20–25B to ~$27B. Management now expects ~$10B in FY26 prepayment commitments, up from $9B+. I’m still tracking how much cash actually came in. For ’27, management expects prepayments and asset-backed borrowing to cover 75–85% of $40–45B in capex. 5. Funding cost and dilution. The $3.5B Citi bridge starts at SOFR + 2.75%, steps up to +3.50% and matures in Oct. ’27. July’s smaller asset-backed deal priced at SOFR + 2.50%. Nebius raised ~$1B through equity sales in Q3. What replaces the bridge, at what cost, and will Nebius need more equity? My read — customer funding terms improved, but Nebius is committing more capital while some revenue moves out. For the new $12–13B FY27 revenue guide and Q4 ’27 pretax breakeven target, I’m watching when Microsoft’s GPUs start billing and what the next large financing costs.

$LITE today opened down with a gap. That's a great opportunity for closing the gap. Good entry at undercutting of 6EMA and let it ride. Ideal exit would be close of gap or any resistance above. It sliced through the VWAP showing strength. Later I see it did a bounce of VWAP, another great entry.

Let's all just put it in perspective. $NVDA is not just a chip supplier to the AI industry — it is the industry's banker, backstop and bottleneck at the same time. It sells the systems to the clouds, invests billions into the very companies that buy them, and depends on a two-link supply chain — TSMC packaging and HBM memory — to keep the whole loop turning. Map of who is what to Nvidia:

$NBIS pre-earnings | Can Nebius turn enough new GPU capacity into revenue by December to hit its FY26 plan? • H1 revenue was $981M. Q2 grew 454% YoY and 46% QoQ as GPU capacity added in Q1 contributed and utilization rose. • FY26 guide is $3.0–3.4B revenue, $7–9B exit ARR and ~40% adjusted EBITDA margin, with $20–25B in capex. • Street expects ~$900M for Q3. That leaves ~$1.1–1.5B needed in Q4. I’m watching Q3 exit ARR and how much new GPU capacity management expects to be billing by December. Three risks I want addressed on the call: 1. Microsoft — Are the remaining Vineland deliveries and customer acceptance dates still on schedule? 2. Capex — Is the buildout still within budget, and how much of the expected $9B+ in customer prepayments has actually arrived? 3. Funding cost — The $3.5B Citi bridge starts at SOFR + 2.75%, steps up to +3.50% and matures in Oct. 2027. What replaces it, at what cost, and will Nebius need to issue more equity?

Well that's my baseline. Didn't know it's Shannon's entry technique for a decade! Wow! Watch VWAP or 2 min chart clean break

$LITE when tech is on the move this is my go to. Choppy but I know it well. iDXX is consistently giving great reversal entries everyday. Just getting to know this stock better and maybe gets entry into my TOP D soon

$CRWV raised revenue guidance and hit a 10% adjusted operating margin. The Nov. 10 call put numbers on how management plans to fund the buildout. **Funding** • Q3 ended with $46.9B in debt, including $41.6B of recourse debt. • Management expects no new unsecured parent debt through 2027 at current yields. CoreWeave's unsecured notes trade around 15%, a rate management ruled out. • The next investment-grade facility is expected to yield 7–7.5% and fund over 90% of the capex it covers. • Management expects to need less than $5B in additional parent-level capital through 2027. Asset-level borrowing would be on top of that. • CoreWeave expects ~$9B in customer prepayments and deposits over the next three months. Over $3B comes from renewals on paid-off infrastructure that require no new hardware. • The weighted average cost of debt fell 250 bps YoY to 7.9%. Management pointed to the customer mix to explain facility pricing. Over 75% of planned infrastructure spend is tied to investment-grade and enterprise customers. • Q3 interest expense came in at $846M, below the $860–940M guided range. Management expects it to rise to $1.05–1.15B in Q4. **Operations** • Cost protection. CoreWeave locks in equipment orders and prices when customers sign, with deployment sites already identified. Delivery still has to stay on schedule. • Capex ran ahead of plan. Q3 capex was $14.5B, above the $11.5–13.5B guided range, as deliveries were pulled forward from Q4. Construction in progress fell from $11.9B to $9.3B as infrastructure was deployed against newly available power. • GPU renewals. Ampere and Hopper renewal pricing rose 30–50% QoQ. More than 300,000 GPUs come off contract in 2027–28 — 130,000 in 2027 and 170,000 in 2028. At current pricing, management estimates ~$4B of incremental annualized revenue from the 2027 renewals, rising to ~$10B including 2028. • Contract economics. Short-term contracts price at ~$40M per MW per year vs $20–25M for long-term, with payback of 6–18 months vs 1–2 years. CoreWeave was also the first cloud to bring Vera Rubin online, already in production at a customer. • Demand. Backlog rose $28.3B in Q3 to $132.5B, and contracted power exceeded 4.6 GW. Management put qualified demand at 10x its capacity through end-2027, and the customer base is broadening — 10% of the Fortune 500 are now customers, and more than half of this year's new customers are outside AI. • Profitability. The 10% adjusted operating margin is progress, but Q3 net interest expense was still more than twice adjusted operating income. Management expects EBITDA less interest to more than double in 2027 as more capacity comes online, with smaller adjusted net losses in 2027 and positive adjusted net income targeted for H1 and full-year 2028. My next two checks are whether the facility closes on those terms and whether the customer cash arrives on schedule. Debt balances are from CoreWeave's Q3 balance sheet. Financing terms, renewal estimates and profitability targets are from the Nov. 10 earnings call.

Gap for $LITE. Was watching $TDG but it's spread will def give me a heart attack! Lol! Passed that. Note $LITE just closed the gap and is down.

Industrial lead followed by Technology today

$PRAX Biotech. So took help from AI to give me a easier understandable version. Of course — here it is again, point by point, in plain words. **First, what PRAX is** 1. Praxis makes drugs for brain disorders (epilepsy, essential tremor). It sells nothing yet — no product is approved, so it has **no revenue and no profit**. It only spends money on trials and on getting approvals. 2. Because of that, there is no "guidance" to grade like other companies. The only things that matter are: **cash in the bank, how fast it's spent, and the FDA decision dates.** **What happened this quarter (Q3)** 3. It lost **$94.2M** in the quarter. Per share, the loss was **$3.23** — smaller than the $3.54 analysts expected, so headlines called it a "beat." 4. That "beat" is misleading: the total loss actually **grew 27%** versus a year ago. The per-share number only looks better because the company issued many new shares in January, so the same loss is spread over more shares. 5. Spending on the office/launch side (G&A) **tripled** versus a year ago — they're hiring sales teams for two drugs that are **not approved yet**. 6. Cash is about **$1.3 billion**, down ~$100M in one quarter. Management says it lasts **into 2028**. That part is fine. **The dates that actually decide this stock** 7. **Dec 27, 2026** — FDA decision on relutrigine (epilepsy drug). This is the big one, about seven weeks away. 8. **Jan 29, 2027** — FDA decision on ulixacaltamide (essential tremor drug). 9. Both dates were **confirmed again this quarter, unchanged**. That is the real "pass" in this report — after last quarter, when one date had already slipped by three months. 10. Also this quarter: a study result (EMERALD) is due **before year-end**, and a restarted trial (POWER2) is back on track as promised. **The three things to watch** 11. **Spending is rising before any approval.** If the FDA says no or delays in December, they've built a salesforce for a drug they can't sell. 12. **Stock-based pay doubled** — employees are being paid more in shares, which quietly dilutes owners. 13. **Nothing is resolved yet.** This quarter didn't answer anything big; it just kept everything on schedule for the December decision. **Bottom line in one line:** financially nothing improved — losses grew — but every important date stayed on track, so the whole story now rides on the FDA decision on Dec 27.