concentrated investments & unwavering conviction 🌩️ @flashfundllc
Not financial advice
Joined April 2021
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Watching people freak out over CXMT's 4F² and claim that CXMT has caught up with Western memory technology is honestly laughable.
CXMT has hit the limits of DUV scaling. What it is trying to do is move from 6F² to 4F² at the relatively relaxed 13 to 14nm node so it can extend the life of DUV. It is not jumping straight to 4F² to leapfrog Western memory makers that use EUV. People have the cause and effect backwards.
Samsung and SK hynix are also not holding off on 4F² because they are stupid. If they wanted to mass produce 4F² right now, they actually could. The only reason they don't is that the yields aren't there.
I really can't make sense of this selloff sparked by CXMT. 🤡
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JPMorgan sees memory supply remaining tight through 2028, with customer order discussions already extending into 2031.
Its estimates point to:
• HBM bit demand growth: +63%
• Non-HBM server DRAM: +37%
• CY27 HBM blended ASP: +54% YoY
JPM also believes Micron’s >35% revenue coverage under long-term supply agreements through 2030 could prove conservative, noting Asian memory peers have LTAs covering 50%+ of capacity.
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MICRON $MU Q4’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS
🔹 Revenue: $54.23B (Est. $51.07B) 🟢; +379% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: $33.42 (Est. $31.61) 🟢
🔹 Adj. Gross Margin: 87.0% (Est. 86.1%) 🟢
Q1 FY27 Guide:
🔹 Revenue: $61.5B ± $1.5B (Est. $57.02B) 🟢
🔹 Adj. EPS: $38.15 ± $1.00 (Est. $35.40) 🟢
🔹 Adj. Gross Margin: ~86.25% (Est. 86.4%) 🟡
CapEx & Cash Flow:
🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $43.97B (Est. $34.47B) 🟢
Business Unit Revenue:
🔹 Cloud Memory: $16.28B
🔹 Core Data Center: $18.00B
🔹 Mobile and Client: $13.11B
🔹 Automotive and Embedded: $6.82B
Other Q4 Metrics:
🔹 Adj. Oper Income: $44.64B (Est. $42.41B) 🟢
🔹 Adj. Net Income: $38.40B (Est. $36.31B) 🟢
🔹 GAAP EPS: $32.87
Key Updates:
🔸 Quarterly dividend of $0.15 per share
Comments:
🔸 “Micron delivered record fiscal 2026 results, and we expect an even stronger fiscal 2027”
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Days like this are exactly why you can never leave the market. Many worn out and tired traders won't be back until late in the move.
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The biggest issue with an AI "safety slowdown:"
What happens with China?
While there are legitimate concerns around the safety of AI and how quickly it is evolving, the AI race is global.
And, in today's ecosystem, falling even 6 months behind in the AI race is like falling decades behind in the pre-AI world.
If US AI giants agree to slow progress and focus on safety, there must be an international agreement in place as well.
And, even if there is an agreement in place, how do we regulate compliance?
We've said it before and we will say it again: AI is the biggest technological revolution in history.
This is an AI arms race that may be impossible to fully regulate.
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Dell $DELL on supply constraints:
"The constraints remain the same. DRAM, DRAM, DRAM, followed by NAND, NAND, NAND. We have spotty CPU shortages. There are shortages with disk drives. If you go further down in the supply chain, just about every product going through a leading node is constrained."
$NVDA $AMD $AVGO $MU
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A lot of panicans & doomers on the timeline this weekend
In my 8 years in the markets, it has always been simple - buy the dip on good companies
Plenty of long winded buzzword filled essays from so-called “researchers” and “analyst” who seem to buy buy high and sell low
Don’t overthink it 🤝
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Morgan Stanley Upgrades $HPE to Overweight, P $69
Analyst comments: "HPE is our preferred OEM to play the enterprise infrastructure cycle, offering an attractive risk/reward. Our enterprise infrastructure work continues to point to upside across servers, storage, and networking, while HPE-specific channel checks, CIO survey work, and management commentary suggest the company's competitive positioning continues to improve post-Juniper acquisition.
At the same time, networking is increasingly transitioning from an integration story to a higher-growth, higher-margin earnings driver, supporting both positive estimate revisions and longer-term multiple expansion. With shares having largely retraced their post-earnings re-rating, improving free cash flow conversion, faster-than-expected deleveraging, and growing capital return optionality, we believe the market is underappreciating HPE's earnings power and valuation asymmetry.
While execution remains the key risk, we believe HPE now offers the best combination of earnings upside, valuation support, and re-rating potential within our enterprise infrastructure OEM group."
Analyst: Erik Woodring
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Insane weekly base here on $DELL
I would be shocked if this does not move towards ATH
I am long 📈
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BREAKING: President Trump says Micron stock, $MU, went up “9 points” after the company announced a $250 million contribution to Trump Accounts.
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$INTC - HSBC DOUBLES INTEL PRICE TARGET
HSBC raised its Intel price target to $200 from $100 while maintaining a Buy rating.
The bank expects stronger server CPU shipments and growing demand for Intel Foundry services. HSBC also sees rising customer commitments from the second half of 2026, supporting higher earnings and long-term growth.
