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Full-time Doctor 🩺 | Part-time Swing Trader 📈 @elonmusk and $SPCX fanboy

1 rocket road
Joined October 2017
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Citadel in October: Tech companies created an AI bubble reminiscent of the dot-com crash. Citadel in November: “The setup has improved” Earnings continue to beat while AI infrastructure valuations compressed sharply.
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Looks like this is the new normal?
you know how leaves change from green to red during October/November well so do stocks lol
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🇺🇸 November is packed with market-moving catalysts! Midterms, inflation data, Fed updates, and earnings from $NVDA, $COHR & $LITE. Will November spark a tech rebound or more volatility?
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Muse just landed in Singapore. Here is what to expect, how to use it, and what day one actually looks like.
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Woah, stellar earnings from and AI market projections... 1. SK Hynix: "Memory supply shortage to persist through 2030". 2. There's the $4.8B operating profit beat ($62.8B vs. ~$58B est)... 80% operating margins. So you had: - Revenue: $78.84B vs. $74.02B - Operating profit: $62.80B vs. $58.00B - Operating margin: 79.7% vs. 78.3% With forward projections of 3. "Our DRAM and HBM volumes through 2029 are effectively sold out." 4. Signed LTAs covering 50%+ of 2027–2028 capacity, while retaining pricing flexibility 5. The company intends to fulfill its commitment to return 50%+ of cumulative FCF for 2025-2027 6. "We have included deposits and other practical enforcement mechanisms" (LTAs have actual enforcement) 7. "We expect the profitability gap between HBM and conventional DRAM to narrow significantly" (hello broader memory industry) 8. SK Hynix announced $75B in shareholder returns (dividends/buybacks) for CY2026. I'm not sure what there isn't to like here? You have a memory company just printing... demand visibility super high from enforceable commitments... and now they're returning that via dividends/buybacks.
Oh look… more memory durability evidence for $MU and co. Following the news of $GOOGL, other CSPs such as Alibaba, Tencent, Bytedance, and are now negotiating memory LTAs with $SKHY and Samsung. Some customers are reportedly pushing for 10 year contracts as well, into 2035. “As U.S. companies move to secure memory supplies first, Chinese tech giants are joining the race.” Source: Maeil News Don't you think it's a bit strange for your hyperscalers (especially Chinese big tech) to seek LTAs 10 years out… If there's claims of CXMT + YMTC DRAM/NAND overflooding in 2028-2029?
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BofA: we are incrementally more positive on memory ($MU $SKHY & $SNDK) after the meetings, with Micron’s mgmt increasingly seeing CY27/28 to be tighter than CY26.
BofA: virtually all of $SPCX current compute runs on $NVDA GPUs, which could lead SpaceX to favor $NOK’s NVIDIA enabled AI-RAN solution... Given the more expensive cost and higher software mix of the solution, this could drive upside to our base case incremental RAN assumptions🔥
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Are we going to get another massive rug pull?
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$NVDA, $AMD and $AVGO have expressed nonbinding interest in buying up to $5B of $META shares combined.
$META announced plans to raise approximately $35 billion through two offerings: > $22.5B in Class A common stock through forward sale agreements. > $12.5B in depositary shares representing mandatory convertible preferred stock. Interestingly, NVIDIA, AMD and Broadcom have expressed nonbinding interest in purchasing up to $5 billion of Meta shares combined. Meta is also planning a potential $60 billion offering program for its new nonvoting Class C shares starting in Q1 2027. Together, the plans could provide approximately $95 billion in equity financing capacity as Meta prepares to spend $135B to $145B on capital expenditures in 2026.
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Thought of sharing my personal drawdowns too!
Yeah… minor volatility in October. Figured I’d share some personal drawdowns too for transparency.
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Finally I’m able to pay my house rent after investing in stock market. Before that, I used to own a house.
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Sorry, @jukan05, bad news for you. Good news for $MU bulls! Micron has reportedly reached an agreement with its Taichung union in Taiwan, cancelling the October 22 mediation. One less uncertainty for Micron’s DRAM and HBM operations.
A few friends have asked me whether the strike at Micron is bullish for the memory sector. My answer is that it should be good news for Samsung and SK hynix, but it’s likely bad news for Micron. You’re probably thinking I’m stating the obvious. But when an SK hynix fab caught fire back in the early 2010s, SK hynix itself actually benefited significantly. DRAM prices were so low at the time that the gains from the resulting surge in memory ASPs more than offset the losses caused by the fire. This time, though… memory ASPs aren’t particularly low, and for Micron, the opportunity cost of the strike looks likely to outweigh any potential upside.
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Don't bet against @elonmusk when it comes to $SPCX earnings!
Just shorted 1,000 shares of $SPCX at $155
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Time to be careful
JUST IN: Citadel CEO Ken Griffin says AI is "almost certainly" in a bubble
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If you sell it, you lose it
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Join me on Liquid and we'll both earn rewards! Save 10% on fees with my referral link: liquid.trade/r/ARYANEIL or my referral code: ARYANEIL
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This is the first time I’m not excited about Sunday futures $SPY
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Now we know for sure that Monday is going to be terrible :(
Maybe we clean out this blown up hedge fund and start fresh on Monday..
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This is exactly why I’ve never liked the neocloud trade. $CRWV founders have reportedly sold $3.3B worth of shares since IPO, including $2.4B this year. Massive debt, relentless capex, rapid GPU depreciation, and insiders cashing out.
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