Thematic Investment Research on the AI Buildout
Not Financial Advice
Joined December 2024
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unfortunately, or fortunately, it never is the end...
tomorrow we get back up and we fight to live another day
there's so much to life than just charts, numbers and stocks
stick to your roots, values and remember what you are here for
make long-term wealth by investing in the AI buildout over the next 5-10 years
don't let the emotions and daily flows carry you away from the simplest strategy ever
things are looking a bit ugly here...
despite incredibly really good numbers & higher capex estimates from majority of the prints
either way, going to reassess strategy and get a better view of the overall AI market this weekend
not a single company is escaping this drawdown
today's after hours is the ugliest print of Q3 earnings so far
amazon, that small $2.7T company, wicked down 12% within seconds of the print
intel went down 17%
pinterest, roblox, reddit all down 15-20%
then binance rumors of getting hacked for $2B and $btc wicks below $79K for the first time since september
ugly
OMG, IS THIS TRUE?
$NVDA CEO Jensen Huang was a target of Chinese intelligence.
According to the NYT, a Chinese intelligence asset got close to him and the US intelligence has known this for a year now.
Her name is Alice Huang, also known as Huang Le. She's a Chinese citizen and a senior exec at Megaspeed, a Singapore data center company, and no relation to Jensen. US officials concluded she was passing information to Beijing while building a close relationship with him.
Megaspeed placed around $2B in Nvidia orders and was investigated by US and Singapore authorities in 2025 over suspected smuggling to China. The two were photographed together in Taipei in June 2024, weeks before Megaspeed's first purchases, and again in May 2025.
Trump was briefed about a year ago and didn't act. Jensen never got a defensive briefing, and the surveillance is still ongoing. Officials first believed he didn't know who she was, but some senior officials now doubt that. Nvidia says these were normal customer meetings and nothing sensitive changed hands. Beijing calls it a smear.
The export control fight just got personal. Jensen has been one of the loudest voices in DC for selling into China, and every argument he makes now gets read through this story. Watch for letters from Congress, tighter end-user checks in Southeast Asia, and any change to China revenue assumptions.
Nobody is accusing Jensen of wrongdoing. But this is an ugly headline at the worst possible time.
Bubbleboi has been arrested.
The reason circulating is domestic abuse allegations involving his girlfriend.
No official confirmation from police, courts, or news outlets.
If this behavior is true, it is absolutely disgusting and should never be tolerated in our community. Treat these unverified claims with caution and leave his identity undisclosed.
Marvell의 Lumentum 인수 가능성에 대한 최근 뉴스 분석글은 $SIVE 상승론자(불스)들이 분명히 좋아할 만한 내용입니다.
🫡
The Marvell and Lumentum deal strengthens the case for $SIVE and $AAOI
Reports of Marvell acquiring Lumentum look to be real, according to sources from the company.
Digging into the details, this deal strengthens the roadmap $MRVL has laid out to scale through AI connectivity. Marvell already owns the electrical side of the optical link with its DSPs, drivers and TIAs, but the laser has always been someone else's part.
Buying $LITE gives them the light source itself, one of the scarcest components in AI networking right now, and lets them sell a full optical engine instead of just the chip inside it. When InP laser supply is the bottleneck, owning that capacity is a moat on its own.
At their recent Investor Day they said revenue from this side of the business would surpass ASICs, which is the stronger unit today. Everything points to them widening that portfolio and grabbing more of the InP laser market, something they clearly see as the next big cycle. Otherwise why would they?
This can weigh on the balance sheet short term, but investors should be really happy. It's going to serve them well years down the line when CPO hits high volume production, and lasers sit at the center of every CPO design.
What the street may not have touched on enough yet is that it strengthens the case for smaller names like $AAOI and $SIVE to get acquired in the future, simply because of where they sit in the supply chain.
$AAOI is basically the major transceiver producer in the US, with an incredible plan to scale revenue over the next few years and their own lasers made in-house. That combination makes them a very attractive target.
$SIVE could have roughly 1/6th of the world's laser capacity by 2027E as their Glasgow fab comes online, plus the two other foundries they're in talks with. They're also one of the top 3 Western InP laser suppliers for CPO today. Trading below $1B USD is insane relative to the relationships they're quietly building across the industry and how they're positioned.
The Marvell and Lumentum deal strengthens the case for $SIVE and $AAOI
Reports of Marvell acquiring Lumentum look to be real, according to sources from the company.
Digging into the details, this deal strengthens the roadmap $MRVL has laid out to scale through AI connectivity. Marvell already owns the electrical side of the optical link with its DSPs, drivers and TIAs, but the laser has always been someone else's part.
Buying $LITE gives them the light source itself, one of the scarcest components in AI networking right now, and lets them sell a full optical engine instead of just the chip inside it. When InP laser supply is the bottleneck, owning that capacity is a moat on its own.
At their recent Investor Day they said revenue from this side of the business would surpass ASICs, which is the stronger unit today. Everything points to them widening that portfolio and grabbing more of the InP laser market, something they clearly see as the next big cycle. Otherwise why would they?
This can weigh on the balance sheet short term, but investors should be really happy. It's going to serve them well years down the line when CPO hits high volume production, and lasers sit at the center of every CPO design.
What the street may not have touched on enough yet is that it strengthens the case for smaller names like $AAOI and $SIVE to get acquired in the future, simply because of where they sit in the supply chain.
$AAOI is basically the major transceiver producer in the US, with an incredible plan to scale revenue over the next few years and their own lasers made in-house. That combination makes them a very attractive target.
$SIVE could have roughly 1/6th of the world's laser capacity by 2027E as their Glasgow fab comes online, plus the two other foundries they're in talks with. They're also one of the top 3 Western InP laser suppliers for CPO today. Trading below $1B USD is insane relative to the relationships they're quietly building across the industry and how they're positioned.
WAIT WHAT?!
$SIVE is coming online with 1/6th of the world's current laser capacity by themselves (100M+ CW DFB lasers).
And that's before counting their foundry partners producing even more lasers.
BULLISH.
No wonder Morgan Stanley names them among the top 3 InP laser suppliers for CPO alongside $LITE and $COHR.
Those two are likely booked out till 2029 for multiple photonic components. So we know who $MRVL, $AMD and the other hyperscaler ASIC programs will go to for their optical needs.
AI server shipments will be 50% of the global total by 2028. That kills the false idea that not being in the $NVDA program makes them fall behind. By the way, they could be in it through Ayar Labs in the future.
Confirmed mappings:
1. $GFS - Sivers laser arrays in GF's silicon photonics and SCALE CPO platform
2. $POET - Sivers lasers on POET's Optical Interposer light engines
3. $JBL - Sivers DFB lasers in Jabil's 1.6T LRO pluggable
4. O-Net and Enablence - External light sources for CPO built on Sivers laser arrays
5. Ayar Labs - Sivers listed as a laser partner
6. $AEVA - Part of their LiDAR ramp, and AEVA recently pivoted into data centers too