investor sharing wisdom on financials, markets, and living a great life. read bid cap.
Joined July 2026
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aurelius retweeted
It’s pretty simple. I own the insurance company. My insurance company overpays my PE fund to help them find higher yielding assets that coincidentally are all these high yield private bonds from my portfolio companies.
And if the insurer goes bankrupt? Not my problem. The insurance FDIC covers it
I already did my best due diligence modeling all these private credit bonds as AAA assets. How was I supposed to know those private credit bonds were for suckers?
🤷♂️🤣
Honestly at the end of the day, I blame the regulators allowing them to do risk accounting shenanigans to make it seem they are safe assets
I want someone from public markets (@GavinSBaker maybe) to talk about Athene and the shenanigans in these variable/ fixed annuities machines as much as Rowan talks about stonks. Feels like he is deflecting eyeballs from something 👀
When you see North Ave Beach in the summer amd gaze down the shore to the Gary industrial complex and realize what you’re drinking
aurelius retweeted
$BSX always crashing out. have some 40p nov sold for 1.05.. didn't cover for 70c. after close I figured it'd do this cuz I didn't cover.. womp womp. non-tech buy and hold really fun. not too much damage on this position tho, could be worse.
aurelius retweeted
I wrote this up …
readbid.substack.com/p/inves…
IBOVESPA during Lula’s previous terms:
Term 1: 9,000 -> 65,000
Term 2 (pre-2008 crash): 65,000 -> 73,000
*crashed from 73,000 down to 30,000 during 2008
Term 2 (post-crash): 30,000 -> 70,000
Term 2 (entire term): 65,000 -> 70,000
Term 3: 114,000 -> 180,000
~23% per year (1100% cumulative) for the 12 years in office, including 2008 crash
~4% per year (63% total) for the 12 years he wasn’t in office from 2010-2022
index currently down ~25% overnight
aurelius retweeted
right as we hit the peak on the second biggest debt bubble after the GFC with increasingly questionable ratings of over-levered companies ... ☠️☠️☠️
aurelius retweeted
This is happening everywhere except like $1k/sq foot plus properties.
Hail mary last gasp for the year. Brokers are desperate and no downside to listing.
Same thing when I was in fixed income. Throw out a bad year-end offer see if someone bites. If not, doesn't hurt P&L at all.
aurelius retweeted
Instant follow.
The “better in USD” number is almost entirely a 2003–08 commodity-boom artifact.
Primary surpluses every year, big trade surpluses, Real ripping from ~3.50 to ~1.70. Equity gains + FX gains = the multi-bagger USD returns.
Post-2010 that stopped. Fiscal surplus eroded into deficit, Real reversed hard (1.7 to 5.5), and USD returns went from tailwind to headwind. The full-term cumulative hides how one-sided the boom phase was.
aurelius retweeted
I think Chuck himself sold $40m or so in August ... I understand tax planning but it's usually a bad idea to buy when insiders are dumping
I cannot tell you how many articles and talking heads (tons) have been recommending $SCHW in this past month as it hits a new FOUR MONTH LOW.... 🧐
This is happening everywhere except like $1k/sq foot plus properties.
Hail mary last gasp for the year. Brokers are desperate and no downside to listing.
Same thing when I was in fixed income. Throw out a bad year-end offer see if someone bites. If not, doesn't hurt P&L at all.
right as we hit the peak on the second biggest debt bubble after the GFC with increasingly questionable ratings of over-levered companies ... ☠️☠️☠️
I think Chuck himself sold $40m or so in August ... I understand tax planning but it's usually a bad idea to buy when insiders are dumping
I cannot tell you how many articles and talking heads (tons) have been recommending $SCHW in this past month as it hits a new FOUR MONTH LOW.... 🧐
aurelius retweeted
Market values cyclicals on normalized earnings. If multiple is low it means the biz is overearning and normalized earnings are below current earnings. Stock is not cheap, it’s overearning. Typically the best time to buy cyclicals is when they are under earning
The semiconductor sector is trading at record-low forward P/E levels.
Source: Goldman Sachs via @WallStJesus
