$OTHERS is in a multi-year pennant that is very likely to resolve within the coming few months.
Axis retweeted
this is so embarrassing. here, spain's ruling party (the socialist party, PSOE) is boasting that the social security reserve fund ("la hucha de las pensiones") has grown from €5bn in 2018 to €20bn in 2026. that would be good news if it wasn't for the fact that the pension system has been running a deficit since 2010, so every euro that goes into the fund is a euro the state has to cover with taxes or debt!
the fund was established in the late 1990s with the idea of storing the system's surpluses in good years to then draw on them when contributions fall short in bad years. it peaked at around €67bn in 2011 (about €85bn in today's euros, or 6.2% of gdp). then the crisis hit, the system went into deficit, and between 2012 and 2019 governments used the fund to pay pensions, which is (surprise) precisely what it was designed for. so this is what the picture is telling you: on the left, the popular party (PP), which left office in 2018 having drawn down a large part of the fund. on the right, the PSOE, taking credit for having refilled it. the problem is that today the size of the fund tells you nothing about the health of the system, and selling its recent growth as an achievement only works if you assume people are stupid
spain has a contributory, fully pay-as-you-go pension system: the social contributions of today's workers pay for the pensions of today's retirees, and what you pay in is not saved for you anywhere. since 2010 the system has run a contributory deficit, meaning the contributions being paid into the system are not enough to pay the pensions of current retirees. the exact size of this deficit depends on how you measure it (what counts as contributory revenue and spending is a bit of a technical discussion), but roughly speaking, contributions cover about three quarters of contributory spending (which is mostly pensions). the remaining quarter is the deficit: more than €60bn a year, around 3.8% of gdp, covered mostly with transfers and loans from the state, that is, with general taxes and debt. social security already owes the state more than €135bn
so where the hell does the recovery of the reserve fund come from? since 2023 workers have been paying an extra social contribution, the so-called intergenerational equity mechanism (MEI, after its spanish initials). it is an earmarked contribution that generates no pension rights (that is, paying it does not add a single euro to your future old-age pension). by law, its revenue can only go straight into the reserve fund, which cannot use it to pay pensions before 2033
now, we've already established that the system runs a contributory deficit, so every year it needs transfers and loans from the state just to pay pensions. do you see how stupid this is? if the system is running a deficit, putting the MEI money into the reserve fund is like having credit card debt and, when some extra money comes in, putting it in a savings account instead of paying down the card. meanwhile, you keep putting your bills on the card, the debt keeps growing, and you go around showing everyone your savings balance. that is pretty much what is happening: since the end of 2022 the fund has grown by about €12bn, while social security's debt to the state has grown by about €30bn. and it gets more absurd, because the fund invests almost all of its money in spanish government bonds (in other words, the state is lending money to itself)
anyone who can do basic maths can see this isn't saving under any reasonable definition of the term. the system can't pay the pension bill without the state bailing it out every year, and the governing party's big idea is to celebrate that it has taxed workers to lend money to itself. it is honestly sad that this is the level of spanish politics
This is a HTF scenario that could play for $STX.
I think we are in the Spring stage of a larger Wyckoff Accumulation pattern.
Next is breaking resistance and retest it as support before going higher.
$STX is one of the few coins that are green today.
Monthly Bollinger Bands tell you a very obvious story: Once price confirms above the midpoint it's going to be game on.
In red days you have to step back and look at the big picture.
For instance, $CRV Axis Deviation Bands keep compressing while price consolidates above the midpoint.
Everything is going according to plan.
$NIO’s profit margin is expected to hit break-even for the first time this year.
Meanwhile, sales and their battery-swap network keep expanding.
And this inflection point comes when the stock has suffered a 95% drawdown!
I purchased some and I plan to ride it back to the top.
What happened to Arweave ($AR) the only other time time monthly BB were this squeezed and price confirmed above the 20 monthly SMA?
What happened in February 2024?
Simply by using BBs on $OTHERSBTC, it is pretty obvious what will happen within the next few months to the altcoin market.
We haven't have an actual altcoin run since 2021 and the next one is around the corner!
$QNT volatility is squeezing as weeks pass. Price is currently trying to cross above the 50 week EMA but I think it can do it sooner rather than later.
Time to accumulate is running out imo.
$STX volatility continues to compress after the proce reclaimed the 50 week EMA.
I still think this is a good are to DCA before the next leg up.
I think Arweave $AR price chart is in an analog to where it was in November 2023, before it pulled a x6.






















