Exponential View @exponentialview.

2.718281828459045
Joined July 2007
The GenAI economy has generated $110 billion in sales over the past 12 months. It is growing fast. On an annualized basis, the revenue run rate exceeds $175 billion. These numbers took us several months to construct, and as far as we know, it’s the first bottom-up, deduplicated measure of consumer and enterprise AI spending across the full stack. We are releasing this research today in our first The State of the AI Economy report. intelligence.exponentialview…
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Interesting critique
We bet the entire economy on a technology no one wants, needs, or has a path to using Current models are not helpful enough to replace labor. More complex models can’t be control and may break the internet 1 interest rate hike and poof it’s gone
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Azeem Azhar retweeted
Me checking my portfolio on my brand new iPhone Duo
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SK Hynix Solidigm $SKHY withdraws US IPO... another one down
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A semi day: 🩸🩸🩸
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Meta spending a cool 2.5% of GDP on off-balance sheet AI infrastructure. roughly double the European Union’s total defense spending
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Markets signalling that they would like a few more results and fewer promises...
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North Korea now!
Multiple waves of DDoS attacks caused this week's outage in North Korea. Aggregate traffic data shows a flood of traffic from Vietnam, Philippines, Venezuela and other countries began at 02:01 UTC on Oct-20 when the country's sites went offline. @nknewsorg
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Barclays says it is cutting 5,000 jobs, or about 5% of its workforce, as the bank incorporates AI more deeply into its business. wsj.com/cio-journal/barclays… via @WSJ
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Every job invented in the 20th Century is threatened by AI.
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I think we’re probably understating honestly
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SCOOP: Major U.S. banks are detecting unauthorized third-party AI agents inside customer accounts, including some attempting to take actions that appear to be independent of user instructions, sources told Axios. The findings have alarmed banking executives, who are racing to restrict access to their systems as AI moves at a velocity faster than financial institutions can respond, multiple industry and bank executives told Axios. Several banks are now preparing for worst-case and even “day after” scenarios, including how to rapidly secure or restore customer accounts if things go wrong, the people said. Several bank executives told Axios they're struggling to distinguish between human users and AI agents. One executive said banks also struggle to determine whether agents are authorized by customers or potentially operating without their permission, more akin to rogue agent behavior. Read my latest for Axios here: axios.com/2026/10/22/ai-agen…
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Not good. We are *this close* to losing the ability to read the AIs thoughts, so we can't see if they're scheming against us A message to the AI companies: FUCKING. STOP.
Mythos invented its own language, then switched back to English to talk to humans (AI safety researchers have been warning of this "Neuralese" risk for years. If AIs stop reasoning in English, we can't monitor their thoughts, which means we can't detect scheming.)
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oh cool you’re in the “i’m buying a mac studio to run local models” stage of your ai journey? i’m in the “i’m buying a starlink, a generator, and 2 weeks of food and water” of mine.
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Perhaps underappreciated...
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Ths analysis matches my (and @deepforestsci team experience). It's always been surprising why METR claims such long horizons while this never seemed to work in practice for problems we cared about
A recent set of posts by @ramez on the current state of recursive self improvement highlighted that OpenAI's report on their own research automation shows that models struggle to do their R&D work — the models' 80% time horizon is only 15 minutes: 🧵
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皆様に、今夜に対応して頂きたい大至急のお願いです。   多くのウェブサイトで使用されているPHPに関し、PHPのセキュリティチームが、重大な2件の脆弱性に関する注意喚起を行っています。   公開しているウェブサイトでPHPを使用しているか確認し、今夜、10月21日午後11時(日本時間)に公開される修正パッチについて、可及的速やかに適用できるよう準備をお願いします。   修正パッチを速やかに適用することが困難な場合は、例えばウェブサイト等を一時的に停止させることも、リスクを低減させるための有効策の一つと考えられます。   国家サイバー統括室のXアカウントでも関係する情報を発信していますので、そちらも参考にして下さい。 国家サイバー統括室(注意・警戒情報)(@cyber_forecast) / X
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Azeem Azhar retweeted
This chart is $ Also, hard to see memory not being constrained then through 2030 at they very least. "As these products come in, the trade ratios continue to be stressed in terms of the number of wafers it takes to build HBM, vertical HBM, and vertical EIM relative to building standard DRAM bits. So that that pressure remains through this roadmap." $MU
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Azeem Azhar retweeted
Good find by Toby. AIs are far less capable on real world AI research tasks than ECI x METR or AI 2027 predict. Data from Google Argon (adding on to OpenAI): Gemini 4 actual: ~15 minutes ECI --> METR Prediction: ~360 minutes (6 hrs) AI 2027 prediction: ~1,000 minutes (18 hrs)
Replying to @tobyordoxford
Fortunately, that has arrived. GDM ran a very similar analysis on their internal use of AI for AI R&D and published their graph on page 78 of their Gemini 4 Safety Report:
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If it wasn’t obvious already we’re in a completely new paradigm of cyber vulnerabilities. Product teams at Cloudflare, Mozilla, Chrome, Safari etc are doing incredible work keeping up - but wow we need more and better defensive cyber models to harden applications and the web yesterday. It is astonishing to read in the @thetimes today an Op-Ed from @parismarx saying AI hasn’t changed anything! Head in the sand is not a strategic option.
Following the discovery that eight eMudhra intermediate certificates use weak keys, Cloudflare is deploying mitigations and releasing client updates. We explain the impact, our response, and what customers and developers should do next. cfl.re/487DNbG
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What they do for one month?
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