Chairman & Chief Investment Officer at Barometer Capital Management-Barometer Manages Tactical, Multi-Asset portfolios for families, and financial advisors
Toronto
Joined May 2009
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Looking forward to our Barometer Readings Webcast today at 4PM ET. Where we'll be covering where markets stand this week, followed by a live viewer Q&A. Join us by clicking the registration link below.
events.zoom.us/ev/Av-XDWBUqi…
Yesterday felt bad for Latam equities but did little to change the big picture.
Financials, energy and materials may outweight the politics.
$ILF
The early summer gaps opened on the gold miners chart have been filled.
...on most individual miners as well.
We are now at an important inflection point.
There is lots of rebuilding to do but sets up a potential reverse head and shoulders.
$GDX
Of 4500 ETFs in the US and Canada...
4 relative strength New Highs
Quality, value and Energy...thats it.
Outside of highly defensive assets, the strongest RS names often lead when conditions improve.
Build your farm team.
There is a time to play offence and a time to play defence.
Playoff winning teams know that a good defence wins games.
Today I had a chance to discuss our current market views and answer viewer questions on CDN and US large-cap stocks.
This should be front and center in factors to consider.
#Brentcrude #OilAndGas
It looks as though flows out of tech are working their way into big free cash generators.
$COWZ
Dividend growth ETF with a 2% divi growing at north of 20%
Free cashflow clearly a leadership characteristic.
During the great bond bear market, each time RSI became oversold (lower panel), bonds had a near term bounce that ultimately failed.
WIll this be different?
If it is more of the same, rotating to defensive bond proxy sectors could be a mugs game.
Some investors are captive to the market; their mandate is to be fully invested. I would be cautious of chasing a rally in a downtrend. While it is not time to be short, bounces can fade as fast as they arrive.
This is something to watch.
$XLU $RWR $TLT
$SOXX is under pressure. Risk is rising.
$SOXX made a lower high on failing momentum. The point and figure chart shows a failed rally attempt and the MACD shows waning momentum.
Only 24% of semiconductor stocks are in uptrends defined by PNF charts and breadth has been declining.
Downtrend strength is getting stronger. (lower panel)
This is tough setup for bullish participants coming into earnings and Semis are obviously a lynchpin in the AI theme.
Reaction to earnings will be more important than the earning themselves. Define your stops.
Looking forward to todays @marketcall with our friends from @BNNBloomberg today at 12PM ET.
This is when you build a farm team.
Companies you would like to own if market conditions start to improve.
What holds up during a decline or deteriorating breadth can be leadership when conditions improve.
Insurance and Healthcare have been firming.
$KIE
When markets weaken, heightened margin debt can be fuel to the fire as forced selling re-enforces an unwind.
This is not a time to be a hero.
US MARGIN DEBT IS SURGING AGAIN:
US margin debt jumped +$36.6 billion, to $1.45 trillion, its 2nd-highest level ever.
Since the beginning of 2024, this figure is up +$555 billion.
As a % of US M2 Money Supply, margin debt is up to 6.3%, its 3rd-highest level on record.
For perspective, this ratio peaked at 6.4% during the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble.
US investors are taking on more leverage than ever.
#BRENTCRUDE is taking out highs.
Every previous attempt to break price higher has been met by market appeasing promises that an end to the war is near.
Energy traders are fed up with the boy who cries wolf... Brent crude is taking out highs.
#OilAndGas
