Barry Barco

Hunter Barco 2026 Projections ZiPS: 3-3, 4.23 ERA, 82 K, 87.1 IP, 1.1 WAR Steamer: 6-7, 4.59 ERA, 102 K, 116.0 IP, 1.2 WAR I really like Hunter Barco. I expect him to be the fifth rotation arm following the trade deadline, likely stepping in for the veteran left-hander the Pirates still haven’t signed and will almost certainly flip in July. Barco’s profile has always been projection-forward. Drafted in the second round out of University of Florida while rehabbing Tommy John surgery, his early pro career was mostly the stuff of imagination and projection. That changed in 2025 when he cleared 100 innings for the first time, held his stuff across multiple levels, and proved his body could sustain a starter’s workload. The early results were pretty damn eye-opening. At Double-A Altoona, Barco opened the year with 25.2 scoreless innings across six starts (!!), allowing just 11 hits with 34 strikeouts against seven walks. The promotion to Indianapolis brought some expected regression, but manageably so. In 73.2 Triple-A innings, he posted a 3.79 ERA with 82 strikeouts, holding his own while refining secondary command against more mature bats. Looking ahead to 2026, the most likely outcome has Barco opening the year in Indianapolis as rotation depth with a short leash to Pittsburgh. Steamer predicts 100+ innings, and both projection systems suggest 1.0+ WAR impact. He is built to be the first call if injuries, workload management, or deadline trades create an opening. When he does return, the evaluation will hinge on how his unique traits translate against major league lineups. Deception Over Domination 🪄 Barco’s fastball plays better than the radar gun suggests. Sitting 93–94 mph and touching 96, the pitch generates swing-and-miss rates above average for left-handers despite relatively modest velocity. Brooks Baseball notes heavy sink with slight arm-side run, paired with a very low slot that creates a difficult approach angle. Hitters struggle to square it up, reflected in suppressed hard contact and an ability to live in the zone without getting punished. He gave up just 5 HR last year across 102.1 innings. Completing His Set of Tools 🛠️ Fastball command is Barco’s foundation. In 2025, he filled the zone with his heater 50+ percent of the time, allowing him to work ahead and avoid free passes. The secondary command remains the swing factor. His slider and splitter both generate whiffs, but strike rates lag behind the fastball, especially as outings stretch. In the minors, that translated to solid strikeout totals but occasional trouble once pitch counts climbed. The question for 2026 is whether his delivery stays synced deep enough into games to turn a lineup over twice with consistency. He needs a strong slider to thrive in Pittsburgh's rotation. The Splitter as a Ceiling Pitch 🔻 Ultimately, the key to Barco’s future success is his split-fingered fastball. Thrown in the mid-80s with late dive and subtle cut, it produces chase and weak contact against right-handed hitters. When it’s on, the splitter can be a true bat-misser -- a perplexing knee-buckler that leverages the rest of his arsenal. Strikeouts rise, balls in play dribble, and the case for starter becomes much easier to make. It is the pitch to watch this spring, and why I'm so bullish on him. Bottom Line 📌 Barco is currently the only left-handed starter on the 40-man roster. If the fastball deception holds and the splitter continues to miss bats at the top level, average secondary command is enough to support a back-end starter who absorbs innings and keeps games playable. Not a crafty lefty profile - something even better. Though he is likely to open 2026 with the AAA Indians, the path back to Pittsburgh is short once needs arise. He’s a rotation lock by the end of the year. The Hunter Barco era is soon to begin. Prepare yourself. Note: This is an extended look at the predicted Pirates 26-man running through the end of January. Check out the whole series on my profile and like/share for visibility. Thanks! @bbarco7