@bbk6566
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Joined September 2012
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Congrats to everyone who believed! 🥳 Still confident that the numbers and player data was proof how mis-priced the market was. Expedition did not deserve 80%+ odds
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1/5 🧵Steam game of the year data from 2018-2025 Data from older years is based on time from release, to end of steam awards ( Jan 1st ) Green = Winner OR highest among nominees Orange = Free to play ( skews numbers )
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4/5 Chinese reviews from Time of release to Jan 1st of nomination year
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5/5 Would love to see what people make of the data / trends. Biggest anomaly for me was 2021 Cyberpunk lost to resident evil village ( drama at release? Lots of negative reviews? ) Every other year could easily be predicted just based on player stats, granted some years were completely one sided ( I don't think this is one of those years personally purely based on numbers )
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Macaco retweeted
Kii
@Kii0nX15 Dec 2025
surprised it stayed below 20c for 2 days, even got some of my stink bids filled at 13c
Kii
@Kii0nX12 Dec 2025
as expected, E33 won the game awards and people started aping into the Steam Awards polymarket.. good opportunity to accumulate here, but the book is super thin.. not gonna market smash and push the market up.. im just gonna let it sit on this range and accumulate as much as possible..
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TLDR: Steam Awards market is mispriced and over indexing for other award shows that are decided by juries / have low audience participation. In a popularity contest there are more important metrics and indicators. 🧵1/x
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Link to the market, would love to discuss more if anyone has any thoughts polymarket.com/event/steam-a…

Steam Awards: Game of the Year

Steam Awards: Game of the Year (Resolved): View final results and past odds on The World’s Largest Prediction Market™

polymarket.com
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11/x In summary, at the very least the market is mis-pricing the chances of expedition losing. The 3 biggest considerations that will be a bigger factor for steam goty i believe are: Global Appeal / popularity Steam / PC Specific Userbase Likelyhood to vote
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12/x Link to the market: polymarket.com/event/steam-a…

Steam Awards: Game of the Year

Steam Awards: Game of the Year (Resolved): View final results and past odds on The World’s Largest Prediction Market™

polymarket.com
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