We handed 100 people a newspaper from 2036 and locked them on a mountain for two days. This is The Counterfactual. The premise is simple and uncomfortable: most of what you believe about the next decade is wrong. You just don't know which parts. So we wrote the newspaper of September 16, 2036. Some headlines you'd expect. Others look impossible. In that world, they happened anyway. Then we made founders, investors, and policymakers argue about it while Hiking. Basecamp: The Consensus. The most dangerous beliefs everyone in the room shares. Camp Alpha: The Divergence. How the impossible actually unfolds. Camp Beta: The Wager. What you'd start doing today if it's real. Summit: The Great Re-Pricing. The dislocations you can actually trade. Between camps: rotating small groups, no hiding, every assumption pressure-tested on the trail. Final morning: the counterfactual became output. Policies. Tactics. Capital allocation. Now feeding competing simulations of the future. Consensus is already priced. Every asymmetric return in markets, in policy, in company building lives in the future nobody is pricing in. Comfortable beliefs are expensive. We spent two days getting rid of a few. See you at The Counterfactual 2027. @blueyard @ciaranoleary @jason_whitmire @chadfowler Thx for coming: @subjective_p @HilmarVeigar @billyperrigo @JasonBordoff @reecechowdhry @FadwaOuardani @tcytowski @evanphx @MaxClaussen @ben_sdl @MylesStapelberg @alexjkorman @hanna_haya … any many others!!