Reporter at @nytclimate. email: [email protected] signal: bradplumer.54

Washington, DC
Joined July 2008
More Americans Than Ever Are Living in Wildfire Areas. L.A. Is No Exception. nytimes.com/interactive/2025… This is a great article from @rjnskl and @bradplumer at @nytimes. Some important nuggets: "Between 1990 and 2020, the number of homes in fire-prone parts of California grew by 40 percent, according to research led by Volker Radeloff, a professor of forest ecology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison." "In California, many cities have restricted development in downtown areas, pushing people to the fringes. Mobile homes and low-income housing are prevalent in fire-prone areas." "The growth of housing in flammable areas is a big reason that wildfires are becoming more destructive. Not only are there more homes in the path of fires, but with more people living near forests and grasslands, there’s a greater chance fires will start in the first place." "Many of the homes in Pacific Palisades were 40 to 100 years old, and had avoided damage for many years in a region that burns frequently, said Crystal Kolden, director of the Fire Resilience Center at the University of California, Merced. But this time, there was more fuel and stronger winds. Much of the surrounding area used to be ranch land, and cattle grazing kept the buildup of flammable shrubs and grasses in check. Some of that land has since been converted into a park and a conservation area, allowing more vegetation to grow." "After the Camp Fire, one analysis found that about 51 percent of the 350 single-family homes in Paradise built to the new codes escaped damage, compared with just 18 percent of the 12,100 homes built before the standards." "In many cases, homeowners, state agencies and the federal government will have to do more to prevent vegetation buildup around high-risk areas, experts say." "“There are lots of disasters we have limited control over,” said Dr. Kolden. “But fire is one we do have control over. We can control the fuel. We can control what our structures look like.”"
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As expected, China has introduced capacity payments to coal power plants. These will be an incentive to build the more than 100 newly permitted coal plants, as the payments will cover about half of the fixed operating costs of the plants, reducing investment risk. By 2026, the payments could amount to a total of 210 bln yuan or almost 30 bln USD. It's a pretty striking bill to saddle electricity consumers with, given the government's general preoccupation with keeping costs low for businesses. We've already earlier pointed to the expectation of capacity payments as a factor in the flood of new coal power projects. The purpose of the payments is to both entice new projects and to shore up the profitability of existing plants which have been heavily lossmaking. Thinking positively, the capacity payments will make it more palatable to plant owners that the utilization of coal plants falls over time, as it will as the clean energy buildout continues. The payments will also create a motivation for provincial officials to rationalize coal power capacity as the cost of excess capacity will in part be borne by industrial and commercial electricity consumers in the province rather than by state-owned enterprises' balance sheets like in the past. While this is a pretty big policy move, the significance shouldn't be overstated. A 1000 MW coal power plant operating at 50% utilization and selling power for 0.5 yuan/kWh will make 2,200 million yuan per year on electricity sales. It will earn another 170 million in capacity payments, an 8% increase in revenue. The floating tariffs which increased electricity prices paid to coal power plants by 20% were a bigger change.
⚡️Well, here is...China's much-awaited coal capacity compensation mechanism has finally been announced and will take effect from Jan 1, 2024. Basically, this is a scheme to allow coal fired generators that aren't being used enough to earn a paycheck just for being available. 🧵
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So what does a 5 or 10 GW Chinese wind power plant look like? Like this. A solid 150 kms of wind turbines in the Gansu desert. This is how it gets done.
this fucking wind farm, as far as the eye could see for a full hour travelling at over 150km/hr, again, wtf
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This year’s insane heat has coincided with (perhaps driven?) a bit of a wedge between two leading “climate urgency science narratives”… 🧵
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James Hansen et al.’s explanation for why aerosol climate forcing isn’t measured directly, but rather indirectly via inferences from Earth’s Energy Imbalance: (Source: columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/…)
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Everyone has an opinion on peak oil demand. IEA and OPEC are at loggerheads. Markets are divided as to which version of the future to believe, attempt to price, and invest in. A long 🧵 about peak oil demand and why regardless of when oil "peaks", the demand reckoning is coming
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This part especially blows my mind “UBS estimates BYD has a cost advantage of ~25% over traditional automakers in North America & Europe, due in large part to its in-house manufacturing of parts. Analysts at UBS…[found] that around 3/4 of its parts were manufactured in-house”
A few years ago, the founder of Chinese automaker BYD was worried it might not survive. Now, the company—its full name is Build Your Dreams—is nipping at the heels of Tesla as the world’s No. 1 seller of electric vehicles. @riverakiradavis @selina_cheng wsj.com/business/autos/how-c…
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Patti Poppe staked her legacy at PG&E on a pledge that the company will bury 10,000 miles of power lines. Now, that plan is in jeopardy as regulators debate significantly restricting the number of lines it can bury in the coming years. My latest: wsj.com/business/energy-oil/…
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*whispers very quietly* The distributed process knowledge that makes it hard for China to copy EUV machines and wide-body aircraft is a form of indigenous knowledge, and it's not science
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More than 50,000 climate activists marched in New York last week, demanding an end to fossil fuels. Meanwhile the median anti-wind-farm protest in the US is just 23 people. Yet anti-wind protesters will find far more success near-term. I wrote about it: heatmap.news/sparks/wind-far…
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brad plumer retweeted
tired: Dunkelflaute wired: anticyclonic gloom
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brad plumer retweeted
Dams have reshaped ecosystems for the worse across the west. But start tearing down dams, and the clean energy transformation gets even harder. Is it worth sacrificing a healthy river to help preserve a safe planet? @Sammy_Roth and Co. are on the case: latimes.com/environment/stor…
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Wow. Just wow. "The US Army Corps of Engineers is planning to barge 36 million gallons of freshwater daily into the lower Mississippi River near New Orleans as saltwater intrusion from the Gulf of Mexico continues to threaten drinking water supply...." news.yahoo.com/army-corps-en…
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Its hard to overstate just how exceptionally high global temperatures are at the moment. They have blown past anything we've previously experienced by a huge margin. Over at The Climate Brink, we try and visualize this summer of extremes in seven charts. theclimatebrink.com/p/visual…
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My first @nytimes byline: San Franciscans are tired of hearing "Are you OK?" from people elsewhere who've heard about the city's terrible reputation. The truth, as San Franciscans point out, is far less awful and more nuanced. Had fun writing this one. nytimes.com/2023/09/25/us/sa…
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In 3yrs, Texas grew its utility-scale solar PV capacity by 5X, interconnecting ~10 gigawatts (AC) - more than the aggregate PV capacity of every state except CA. Likely the fastest pace of zero-CO2 capacity expansion we've seen anywhere outside China. canarymedia.com/podcasts/cat…
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