48 on the wonderlic, ball knower
Joined October 2022
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“We didn’t stop to consider” when it’s been the only thing most football fans have ever considered re: run/ pass frequency. It’s almost religiously ingrained!
team that was marginally less stupid and wasted less early downs with running plays won, all is right in the world (please for the love of god can someone with multiple brain cells start making these decisions)
no, I never played football retweeted
This is the craziest thing I've ever seen in football. I don't know what's dumber. The Lions snap it early or the Bucs not using the last timeout to try to win the game.
The analytics community has flat out won the argument on 4th downs (thanks @benbbaldwin, @surrender_index, et all).
It’s a remarkable success, and one that needs to be replicated with an under addressed GLARING inefficiency —the pervasiveness and stupidity of early down runs.
Less drastically, if the top offenses cut 10 early down runs per game and maintained similar efficiency throwing, they would be saving about 3 points per game. That’s a ton!
It’s about the difference in overall team quality between the Lions and the Steelers, per betting markets
This is refreshing and obviously correct! However:
The Browns were 7th in first down rushing frequency (40%) last year, despite a -0.045 epa per play on first down runs vs. averaging +0.161 on first down passes.
Put it into practice!
