Market Analyst @StoneX_official covering forex, indices, gold and oil during the Asian session for @forexcom and @StoneXTrading. No DM's.
Brisbane, Queensland
Joined July 2010
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RBA Hike Bets Surge While the Kiwi Dollar Sinks on a Hold youtu.be/XlPGRw7lVtQ?si=loDp…
Nice curve-ball there from RBNZ - holding rates at 2.75% at a meeting where a 25bp was fully priced in.
Kiwi dollar lower across the board, rates repricing pushes next hike back to May.
Forex Forecast: Why NZD Could Outperform AUD and CAD youtu.be/7lA0MipfMfA?si=lfzg…
While the RBA don't meet until next week. CPI figures in the next 2hrs effectively a confirmation of a hike if the data lands hot enough. Which it probably will.
RBNZ, BOC and Fed all up next.
AUD, NZD, CAD: Commodity FX Faces a 24-Hour Central Bank Storm forex.com/en-us/news-and-ana…
Australia's Q3 CPI lands tomorrow, and it could make or break expectations for another RBA hike in November.
CBA, NAB and ANZ forecast trimmed mean inflation of 1% q/q, with Westpac slightly lower at 0.9%.
Both exceed the RBA's estimated August baseline of 0.8%, reinforcing concerns that inflation is proving more persistent than anticipated.
With markets pricing around a 62% chance of a November hike, there's plenty of scope for repricing in either direction.
Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Screams Sentiment Extreme Into Fed, CPI forex.com/en-us/news-and-ana…
Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Screams Sentiment Extreme Into Fed, CPI forex.com/en-us/news-and-ana…
ECB Meeting Preview: EUR/USD Bears Face a Sentiment Test forex.com/en-us/news-and-ana…
I still like NZD/CAD for its longer-term, bullish inflection point potential.
RBNZ and BOC meetings this week. I still think RBNZ may have the hawkish edge - and if oil prices do pull back, it's another bullish clue for the cross.
NZD/CAD is not my go-to. But given it can move 300-400 pips and is sitting at range lows ahead of RBNZ and BOC meetings next week - it has caught my attention.
NZD/CAD Ponders Swing Low Ahead of BoC, RBNZ as Hike Bets Firm forex.com/en-us/news-and-ana…
Slightly more hawkish cash rate curve compared to Friday, following RBA Hunter's comments on Sunday
Oil & Forex Outlook: Brent’s $5 Gap Lower, USD/JPY Under Pressure youtu.be/CZyEjHCnOAA?si=XqmW…
EUR/USD is defiantly holding support despite surge of record short bets
US Dollar Bulls Hold Firm, but Euro Warns of Squeeze Risk | COT Report forex.com/en-us/news-and-ana…
60-minutes: Has the RBA done enough after 4 hikes?
RBA Hunter: "Unfortunately, not quite yet."
Another hawkish signal from the RBA, despite rising unemployment and weakening business sentiment.
All eyes now turn to Wednesday's Q3 CPI, which could tip the balance towards a fifth hike in November.
Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Screams Sentiment Extreme Into Fed, CPI forex.com/en-us/news-and-ana…
Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Screams Sentiment Extreme Into Fed, CPI forex.com/en-us/news-and-ana…
Australian Dollar Holds Support Despite Record Bearish Bets youtu.be/Nijzp-cpwq0?si=LwAI…
Matt Simpson retweeted
SITUATION DETECTED: CloudFlare CEO Matthew Prince says he is aware of additional severe vulnerabilities in other pieces of critical software, and said “I think we’re going to have a couple years where every single week it’s going to feel like the sky is falling,” per Reuters.
Japan's core inflation (ex fresh food) hit estimates of 2.1% y/y, marking its first print above 2% this year.
The BOJ is expected to hold next week after hiking in September, but a weak yen and rising import costs add to inflation risks, keeping the door open for further tightening.
Marathon Fusion - a San Francisco-based startup, claims to have turned mercury into gold!
As cool as that is, gold's scarcity is hardly under threat just yet. A future fusion plant could theoretically produce ~2 tonnes annually, equivalent to just 0.05% of global annual gold mine production.
Last month, we demonstrated high-rate alchemy: turning mercury into real, stable gold, beating CERN’s record by a factor of 10.
Last week, we enriched isotopes in the world’s most powerful plasma centrifuge, beating the Soviet record that stood for 40 years.
Now, we’re building a fusion reactor in San Francisco to achieve record power density.
Rising energy costs continue to do its thing - with September's raw materials rising 27% y/y in Canada (crude component +55%), producer prices up 14.5% (petroleum 64%).
This reinforces the existing hawkish outlook rather than establishing a new policy shift - with expectations for a BOC hike next week ~80%.
Implied volatility is perking up for the yen as bulls relinquish control during risk-off trade. After several false starts, USD/JPY may finally be topping out again.
Japanese Yen Surges Across FX Majors as Risk Aversion Intensifies forex.com/en-us/news-and-ana…
