@tamu stats ‘25 | former @AggieBaseball analytics | power ratings enthusiast | strength ratings + daily projections @ https://nitter.gq/t.co/Qz3DYn8AI6
Joined December 2025
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New to the site @ cannonanalytics.co - confidence levels.
Each bet has a confidence level, low medium or high, based on a variety of factors, but largely how confident are we in the model's long run performance against the given prop type and book. Here is an example.
NBA Daily Report 11/5
Luka projected 35.5(!!) points.
All Projections @ cannonanalytics.co
NHL Daily Report 11/5
Small slate, but seeing some good value early.
All Projections @ cannonanalytics.co
TNF Jags @ Ravens
Derrick Henry will certainly be the Ravens offensive focus with Fagnano starting, but I project him at just 12.2 fantasy points facing a stout Jags defense. Henry will get looks due to volume, but he is far less likely to find the endzone than he usually is.
I have had a solid influx of followers recently, just now surpassing 100 followers. I gave away a free month to my website at 50, so I'll do the same now that I crossed 100, to anyone who both likes + RTs this post.
In addition to that, given a larger base, I wanted to get some input of the type of free content some of y'all would want to see on twitter, website subscriber or not. I try to deal both with the analytics and betting side, so anything from there. Power Ratings across sports, a daily model pick, analysis of a certain matchup, or something else, if anyone wanted to let me know what they might like to see!
Quoting this because it might have gotten buried - but I am giving away a free month subscription to the website to someone who likes and RTs the ORIGINAL post (not this one but you can lol), if anyone is interested.
I talk a lot about the model and I like to more focus publicly on the analytics side, but for the sports bettors out there, here is my model's performance on NHL mainlines (total/moneyline/puckline/team totals), where the model sees a >10% edge.
340 bets is enough to be a couple standard errors from noise, so fairly unlikely this is all just luck. There are other markets where I show clear demonstrable signal (goalie saves being the primary one, for NHL), and I use Novig as they are far harder to beat, whereas it is pretty easy to beat DK for example.
I am working on adding more transparency to the website on model performance across all categories using a variety of different filters, so if you are interested in wagering, go check out my site for free for 3 days @ cannonanalytics.co
Also working on getting a discord set up for discussion on both the analytics/talking ball side, and the betting side, for those interested in either with a sub.
I also recently eclipsed 50 followers which is nice, so I'll give someone a code for a full free month who likes + RTs this, if anyone is interested.
With NHL in full swing, I figured I would get back to posting more of my general analytics/info, especially with a lot of people not as familiar with the sport. Here are my updated NHL Power Ratings.
The rating value is that team's expected goal margin against a league average team. Carolina takes the top spot, with the Canucks a full half goal worse than the second worst team (yikes).
I talk a lot about the model and I like to more focus publicly on the analytics side, but for the sports bettors out there, here is my model's performance on NHL mainlines (total/moneyline/puckline/team totals), where the model sees a >10% edge.
340 bets is enough to be a couple standard errors from noise, so fairly unlikely this is all just luck. There are other markets where I show clear demonstrable signal (goalie saves being the primary one, for NHL), and I use Novig as they are far harder to beat, whereas it is pretty easy to beat DK for example.
I am working on adding more transparency to the website on model performance across all categories using a variety of different filters, so if you are interested in wagering, go check out my site for free for 3 days @ cannonanalytics.co
Also working on getting a discord set up for discussion on both the analytics/talking ball side, and the betting side, for those interested in either with a sub.
I also recently eclipsed 50 followers which is nice, so I'll give someone a code for a full free month who likes + RTs this, if anyone is interested.
NHL Daily Report 11/3
All Projections @ cannonanalytics.co
Got some traction on some posts yesterday, so going to mention again that if you are interested in my site all paid tiers come with a 3 day free trial to check out what I have.
I've posted these before, but a reminder of some of the detail you can get on my website regarding specific games. I post full game model projections for NHL/NBA for free, but the ins and outs of player projections, analysis, and prop value are all @ cannonanalytics.co
