Senior Analyst @omkaracap | Ex - Venture Capital | Views are personal and not recommendations
Mumbai, India
Joined March 2011
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Rikin Shah, CFA retweeted
In case you're confused about what's going on with Elon Musk tanking the neoclouds, here's the timeline of everything that's happened
> Oct 13: Chamath posts a chart of $CRWV bonds yielding 15%. Musk replies one word. "Yikes"
> Oct 14: $CRWV falls 15.5% in one day. $NBIS -10%, $IREN -10%. Gartner warns the same day that 80% of neoclouds could disappear by 2030
> Oct 15: $CRWV credit default swaps hit a RECORD 1,100+ bps. The market is pricing a 60%+ chance they default within 5 years. Their 2031 bonds yield 16%
> Oct 16: the bonds fall under 80 cents. Distressed. $CRWV down another 12%. The stock lost about 25% that week
> Oct 19: Goldman upgrades $CRWV to Buy anyway. Stock does nothing
> Oct 22: $NBIS raises $3.5B from Citi. It matures in ONE year. That's the kind of money still available to these guys
> Oct 25: a clip of $NBIS's CEO from GTC Berlin goes around X. He admits debt markets and asset-backed financing have "temporarily dried up"
> Oct 25: Musk goes in. "200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation." Says debt markets are shut for anyone without real revenue outside AI data centers. Says SpaceX just closed $40B of debt to buy GPUs because they have Starlink and launch revenue
> Someone asks if he's tanking them so he can buy one cheap. Musk: "SpaceX is not buying any neoclouds. Pointless"
> Sunday night: $CRWV and $NBIS down another 2.3% overnight. $IREN -2%
$CRWV is down 38% in a month. $NBIS is down 33%
Also worth noting - SpaceX sells AI compute too. Anthropic's deals with SpaceXAI could be worth up to $84.5B through 2029. Musk is a competitor talking about his competition and might just be trying to starve his competitors with x
Rikin Shah, CFA retweeted
exponential tech still obeys thermodynamics lol you should check the 2nd law
1 gold atom ≥ 1 D-T fusion (17.6 MeV) → ~74 MWh/oz
Hg-198 = 10% of mercury, world output ~3 kt/yr → ≤ ~300 t gold/yr even at 100% yield
that’s still ~10% of mine supply
and EEEEEEEEVENNNNN if we have fusion reactors so energy costs 0
we wouldn't find enough mercury to make gold
Rikin Shah, CFA retweeted
Modi luck strikes again. Thanks to Elon diatribe, within barely two days, Indians now see how dangerous Starlink can be. Modi again becomes the saviour without lifting a finger 🤣
BREAKING: Zelensky says he has been betrayed by Trump, that Elon Musk and Trump deliberately blocked Starlink in Ukraine overnight and that people have been killed as a result. "I am sure they knew what they did, absolutely. Because it was 1am at night, Starlink was blocked by SpaceX and the United States," he tells Piers Morgan.
"This decision will bring a lot of human losses. Of course, people will die." He said interceptors that rely on Starlink did not work, and that "this is not the right side of history."
Asked if he is angry with Musk, Zelensky said yes, calling it a big mistake.
"Now Putin is laughing because, I mean this is for him, simple victory," he says on the Trump-Russia diesel deal.
Rikin Shah, CFA retweeted
Good data.. But you should consider largecap allocations in Large & Mid cap, Flexi, Multi asset categories as well
If one combines that numbers can meaningfully change
Rikin Shah, CFA retweeted
Pantomath: Banker, Buyer and Seller
A Mumbai investment bank's own funds keep turning up in the deals it sells. The investors who buy those deals have done badly.
Will SEBI look into this potential conflict?
read only in @BWBusinessworld @anuragbatrayo
businessworld.in/article/pan…
Rikin Shah, CFA retweeted
Key disadvantages of allowing Starlink in India include:
National security risks: Foreign-controlled network limits India's ability to shut off service in sensitive border areas or ensure availability during crises. Past reports of terminals with militants or smugglers raise misuse concerns.
Data sovereignty issues: Laser links could route traffic outside Indian gateways, complicating monitoring and lawful interception.
High costs: Hardware and monthly fees likely far exceed affordable terrestrial options like Jio or Airtel, limiting rural access.
Market impact: Could disrupt local telecoms and foster over-reliance on a single US provider instead of domestic alternatives.
Rikin Shah, CFA retweeted
360 degree turn in geopolitics and the world dynamics.
Breaking: china defends india against Elon musk.
Elon musk said Space X follow all the Indian rules for 5 years it has not been given approval to run starlink in india.
China's Global Times said : Chinese car company is following all the rules but has not been given approval in US and has been blocked with 100% tarrif.
Elon said : Is ambani real boss of india ?
Global times asked: Is Elon real boss of US ?
Follow @Globalexplainer
Rikin Shah, CFA retweeted
Gee. Any guesses what triggered Elon’s tweet?
🚨 Jio plans 1,600 satellites, 23 ground stations to expand connectivity across India
Remote villages, islands and border outposts are among the key focus areas.
More details 👇
moneycontrol.com/news/busine…
Rikin Shah, CFA retweeted
Leader of Opposition, ladies and gentlemen. Shitting on his own country because he hates the man who is a democratically elected prime minister of India.
Rikin Shah, CFA retweeted
How much for 4 days of work a year??????? 😂😂😂
How can anyone defend this club?!
Mancini held 2 contracts during his time at Manchester City. The official agreement provided him with a basic salary of €1.69M net per year.
The 2nd was a supplementary deal with Al Jazira, an Abu Dhabi club also owned by Sheikh Mansour, who paid him €2.03M for doing consultancy work for just 4 days a year. [@Gazzetta_it]
Rikin Shah, CFA retweeted
Idea down 4%....this is what happens when even panwala knows brokerage note is coming
Rikin Shah, CFA retweeted
In case you are worried about US interest expense outgo, here are more reasons to choose from.
US 10 Yr yield has risen so much that it is still just 20 bps below October 2023 levels.
But look at what has changed since then.
US CPI in Oct'23: 3.25%
Today: 3.3%
Inflation Index CAGR: +2.4%
Core CPI in Oct'23: 4.9%
Today: 2.7%
Core Inflation Index CAGR: -18.7%
Federal Debt in Oct'23: $33.1 Trn
Today: $39.0 Trn
CAGR: +5.9%
US GDP in Oct'23: $28.0 Trn
Today: $32.5 Trn
CAGR: +5.4%
Most of the headlines and alarm bells are just noise.
The key risks is the fat and overvalued tech sector.
Rikin Shah, CFA retweeted
This is one of the MOST profound insights anyone has ever shared on a podcast.
Whoa!!!
Rajashekar Iyer on the lesson Rakesh Jhunjhunwala taught him:
“I bought a penny stock at Rs. 17–18. It went up to Rs. 165, I didn’t sell, and eventually it came back to Rs. 16.”
“I once spoke with Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, and he told me, ‘Tum logon ka problem hai, tum log jaldi rokda kar lete ho’ (Your problem is that you sell too early).”
“I shared my penny stock experience with him. He thought for a while and said, ‘You didn’t do anything wrong by not selling at Rs. 165, because it could have gone to 500 or 1,000, But when it fell to around Rs. 130, you should have exited.’”
“That’s the risk management lesson I learned from him.”
Rikin Shah, CFA retweeted
So chloride proposed limit is <1 for E20 vehicle but it’s seen 350mg😳😳😳😳
350 times jayada chloride.
So this is the reason fuel pumps and fuel injector ke issues badh rahe h.
EXPOSED: The document the Government tried hard to erase.
On July 28, 2026, SIAM officially warned the Union Govt that Excessive chloride in E20 petrol is actively damaging your vehicles.
Instead of protecting your hard earned money & your vehicles the govt went after news articles that reported on this SIAM letter.
DOWNLOAD & SAVE THIS LETTER NOW before it gets pulled down again.
To every politician across party lines: Stand up for the citizens of India today, or admit you don't serve them.
Team Bharat accepts full responsibility for releasing this suppressed letter. We do not fear the consequences. The truth belongs to the public.
Jai Hind 🇮🇳
Tehseen Poonawalla | Founder, Team Bharat
Rikin Shah, CFA retweeted
बड़ा खुलासा: आपकी गाड़ी का इंजन हो रहा है बर्बाद!
E20 पेट्रोल में क्लोराइड की सीमा होनी चाहिए <1 mg/kg, लेकिन आपके पेट्रोल में 350 से 500 mg/kg तक क्लोराइड पाया जा रहा है!
SIAM की इस गोपनीय रिपोर्ट ने पोल खोल दी है !
यह दूषित पेट्रोल गाड़ियों के इंजन को हमेशा के लिए खत्म कर रहा है !
2 साल से चेतावनी के बावजूद सरकार खामोश क्यों है?
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