Founder & Co-CIO at Fraxinus Capital Management, LP Long/Short DMs are open. Not financial advice
Joined August 2021
- Tweets1.4K
- Following108
- Followers1.9K
- Likes987
Pinned Tweet
people who are confused and have been confused about events just look at you like this now
its been happening.
China's 2008 is happening now.
Property investment in China dropped -21% YoY in the first 9 months of 2026, its largest decline for this period of the year on record.
This marks a deterioration from a -20% YoY decline in the first 8 months of 2026.
The latest drop is also significantly worse than the -16% decline recorded during the 2020 pandemic.
Property investment in China has now contracted every month since 2022, its longest declining streak on record.
For perspective, during the 2008 Financial Crisis, this figure never fell below +1% YoY growth.
China's property sector is experiencing a historic downturn.
Capital Mindset retweeted
New from OpenRouter: 7-day average token volume for Anthropic models is up 3.6x since the launch of Opus 5.5
Sonnet 5.5 and Haiku 5.5 have also been well received.
Why I’m Not Buying the AI Bubble Narrative | Energy, Europe & Ed Zitron xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1yKAPwZEq…
And just like that people buying the innovation
Oh look at that,
a Chinese Open Source model is basically at parity with American frontier labs models merely a month after it was said this was supposed to be impossible now,
something something no moat,
something something the current absurd AI Capex is justified somehow,
something something we need some regulatory layer to protect American enterprises.
$VIX did the thing. That was fun, I hope it causes some narrative drive into monday over the weekend.
Capital Mindset retweeted
And.....scene.
Wow you are a moron. There is literally zero chance of $2 per share.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
It hit $2/share
x.com/MebFaber/statu…
Capital Mindset retweeted
Oil is $90. Even with all the damage to Russian energy.
Iran has not been blockading the SoH for 7 months.
Iran's ballistic missiles did a fraction of the damage people expected as well.
Iran is blockaded, though. And its economy has collapsed. And it created permanent damage between it and its neighbors - the people of Saudi Arabia aren't going to forget the attacks on civilian targets anytime soon.
If you think somehow this war went well for Iran, and bad for the USA, you've got to seriously revise that view! Put your politics and personal hatred of Trump aside.
Open AI misses Revenue by $20 billion, Rates take a breather, End of year Market Setup xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1kKzDPmLb…
Capital Mindset retweeted
People are misunderstanding the FT article in my opinion. People tried to put together OAI's ARR using the same metrics that Anthropic uses. Anth. uses Gross revenue recognition, and OAI uses Net revenue recognition.
$50B ARR using Net Revenue recognition is insanely good.
To be fair, OAI can't really recognize gross due to their agreement with Microsoft, so the big Q I would have is whether they recognize net only for MSFT, or for all hypers that sell their product.
If you're wanting to do some dip buying on AI names, all else being equal, this seems like a temporary dislocation.
LMAO games journalist can't read. Not surprised. $ORCL $MSFT
Just so everyone is cleared up on this. OAI reports NET revenue. Anthropic reports gross. These projections came from attempts to "gross up" OAI's revenue to make it comparable to anthropic. the $50 billion reported is NET revenue. Hence a Gross revenue estimate of $70 billion and a reported $50 billion net is NOT a miss. The article title is super misleading and will trick all the people who do not read past the headline(good opportunity to see who you follow reads and who does not read).
If you do some napkin math on OAI we had a report in April that estimated the cloud partner revenue and you back that out and use the same proportion with some allowance for error with a $50 billion net revenue figure it would put you over under $70 billion... funny enough.
For further comparison for some of the $UBER shareholders who can appreciate this, with the accounting differences between recognizing the booking of the ride as revenue vs the net of that ride as revenue. Recognizing before the expenses of the partner (driver) has a higher revenue recognition and lower margin and the opposite is true taking the net amount (lower rev higher margin). Its the same thing really and just accounting really.
So once again to say that its $20 billion lower because $70 gross - $50 net = $20 is at best misinformed and at worst negligent. I'm leaning on FT might have bad intentions using that headline given they do have a few paragraphs touching what I said above.
unavailable