CHARTILLECT

A year ago this month, Oklo closed at $174. Today it closed at $27. Nuclear and quantum were 2025's favorite stories. In 2026, with the S&P 500 up 13%, they're two of the worst places to have been. NUCLEAR: -47% YTD
(Oklo, NuScale, Nano Nuclear, Centrus, Cameco)
→ The basket was +41% on Jan 28. It's lost more than 60% since.
→ NuScale is 89% off its high and still has no binding power deal.
→ $OKLO opened a fresh $1B at-the-market share program in September. Analysts see ~$6.5B of burn through 2030. QUANTUM: -40% YTD
(IonQ, Rigetti, D-Wave, Quantum Computing Inc)
→ Peaked at +29% on Jun 2. Down 53% since.
→ Within three days in October, IonQ agreed to an all-stock deal worth up to $1.3B, then priced a $2B stock sale.
→ D-Wave still trades near 67x forward sales and now faces a class action. Same knife for both: the 10-year yield hit 5.26% on Oct 14. Far-off profits are worth less when bonds pay 5%. The case for a rebound Nuclear Big Tech keeps signing. On Oct 6, Google signed a 20-year deal for 890 MW of new nuclear capacity from Constellation. Uranium's long-term contract price hit $96.50/lb in September, topping the 2007 peak. Five test reactors went critical under DOE's pilot this year, Oklo's included. Meta signed on to prepay for power from Oklo's 1.2 GW Ohio campus. Quantum $IONQ grew Q2 sales 287% to $80.1M and raised its 2026 guide to $280-290M. DARPA moved IonQ into the final stage of its Quantum Benchmarking Initiative on Oct 7. Washington is buying in: up to $100M CHIPS awards each for D-Wave and Rigetti (for government equity stakes), plus two quantum executive orders in June. The honest risk
Nuclear: almost no revenue until reactors run. Oklo's first Ohio power is targeted for 2030 at the earliest.
Quantum: the cash comes from new shares. IonQ's two deals could lift its share count by close to half. Next test: IonQ and NuScale both report Nov 5. If you could only own one from here, is it the reactors or the qubits?

Boo-yah! #Halloween is headed for a record $13.5B. Costumes $4.4B, decor $4.3B, candy $4.1B. 4.6M kids are going as Spider-Man, and pets get $920M in costumes, pumpkin on top. That's 4x the 2005 haul. $HSY

They don't need SpaceX to fail. They need it to grow slower than Google. Even at Google speed, 20% a year, $SPCX still hits $30T. Just five years late. 🐢 So which is it: absurd, or the floor? 👇

Intel -29% today. ServiceNow -27% yesterday. Nasdaq-100 -3%. The bubble clock says... July 1999. Nasdaq-100 is +144% since ChatGPT (thru Thursday) vs +313% on the same day after Netscape's IPO. 6 signals scream 2000, 6 say 1998. $QQQ $INTC: shakeout or melt-up?

$30 TRILLION SpaceX? 🚀 Wall Street is laughing. Wall Street laughed last time too. 😏 Ron Baron called it: $20T, $30T, $50T.
Then Elon stepped to the line: over $100T in under 10 years. "Unless there's a major world war." Casual. Absurd? Let's go to the tape. 📼 From $1.95T today, $30T in 10 years takes 31% a year.
Not a miracle. Just a good decade. $NVDA: 63% a year 🔥
$TSLA: 49%
SpaceX itself: 56% since 2015 The "impossible" number is running SLOWER than all three.
That's not a moonshot. That's the slow lane. 🐢 Rewind to 2016. Fortune: a $1T Apple is "far from reach."
Apple today: $5T.
Far from reach? It reached. Then it reached four more times. 🍎 Jim Chanos on Tesla: "We think the equity is worthless."
Worthless is now worth $1.6T. 💀 "But nobody grows like that from $2T!"
Says who? The trillion-dollar club didn't exist until 2018.
Nvidia walked in at $1T in 2023. It's 5x since. In three years. The bear case is real ⚠️ SpaceX is burning cash on rockets and AI chips, and S&P sees no positive cash flow until 2029. Fine. Slow it down to Google speed, 20% a year.
It STILL gets to $30T. Just in 15 years instead of 10. The doubters don't need SpaceX to fail.
They need it to grow slower than Google. 🎤 So who's got this one wrong:
the people calling $30T absurd, or the people calling it the floor? 👇 $SPCX

Big Tech's grade this week had little to do with cloud growth. Microsoft kept $18.6B of free cash flow and closed flat. Alphabet and Amazon went cash-negative and got sold. $MSFT $GOOGL What wins next quarter: a capex cut, or proof the spending pays?

AWS grew 39%, its fastest in about five years, and the stock still fell. The number that did it: $77.3B of capex in a single quarter, up from $44.2B in Q1. Trailing free cash flow is now -$42.4B. $AMZN

China's AI crash is 81 trading days old. STAR50 is down 44% from its June 30 peak, twice as deep as the Nasdaq was at the same point in 2000. And it still trades at ~100x earnings. Capitulation buy, or only the 2000 midpoint? $KSTR $KWEB

Instacart's price tag, in four snapshots: Oct 2020: $17.7B
Mar 2021: $39B ($125 a share)
Sep 2023 IPO: $9.9B ($30)
Today, DoorDash: ~$17B ($65) A pandemic boom, a crash, and it's back where it started. The 2021 round led by Sequoia and a16z priced it at $125. $CART $DASH

$MSFT and $GOOGL just put $97B into capex in one quarter, vs ~$106B expected. Azure grew 48% and Google Cloud 103%. The suppliers that reported this morning are the ones cashing those checks.

The Fed held at 3.75–4%, the same range it cut to on Oct 29, 2025. The difference is inflation: CPI was 3.0% then and is 3.7% now, with gasoline up 34% in a year. Futures still price a December hike. $SPY $TLT

The market needs to hear from @GavinSBaker at Atreides and Brad Gerstner @altcap (2 of the largest shareholders) to stop the bleeding on $CBRS regarding the short report from Culper

Before you trade Culper's $CBRS short, know the shop. Tecnoglass, Gorilla and LifeMD all sued it, and two AppLovin-related defamation suits are still pending. It says it may trade after publishing. Its misses: AAOI +198%, IREN +113%, AXSM +98%.

Before $MSFT and $GOOGL report tonight, their suppliers already did. SK hynix operating profit: +632% YoY, 80% margin
GE Vernova orders: +96%, backlog $197B
Vertiv orders: more than doubled, sales +61% Does capex guidance go up again tonight, or does someone blink?

Monday it was ₩60.5T in Q2. Q3 just landed: $SKHY quarterly operating profit
Q3 last year: ₩11.4T
Q3 now: ₩83.3T An 80% margin on memory chips, plus ~₩100T (~$75B) going back to shareholders this year. KOSPI jumped 6.6% to 6,012 and still sits about a third below its June record.

$GOOGL closed at $320.58 into tonight's earnings, 21.5% off its May high and just above $314.90, the low after July earnings. The 50-day sits only $0.66 over the 200-day. At a flat price they cross Thursday. Does $315 hold, or does the death cross print?

Robinhood's CFO says he doesn't "over-index on any one month." October still headlined the outlook: $13B+ in deposits, $6B of it one Dell family gift. Q3 deposits slid to $15.7B from $21.7B and $HOOD fell 7.4% after hours. Is October the signal or the asterisk?

Robinhood made $173M from prediction markets in Q3 vs $120M from crypto. A year ago, crypto alone brought in $268M. Revenue $1.42B vs $1.44B expected, EPS $0.51 incl. a $0.07 fund loss. Is $HOOD a prediction-market company now, or does crypto take the lead back? $BTC